Saya mengucapkan
Selamat Hari Raya Idul Fitri 1433 H
Taqobalallahu minna wa minkum
Mohon Maaf Lahir dan Batin
Senin, 27 Agustus 2012
Jumat, 20 Juli 2012
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 20 Juli 2012
BKSL : Stochastic golden cross dan
histogram menghijau mengindikasikan peluang penguatan.
Support : S1 220
S2 210
Resisten : R1 235
R2 250
Kamis, 19 Juli 2012
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 19 Juli 2012
ASRI : Muncul indikator bullish parabolic
sar mengindikasikan dapat berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1 500
S2 485
Resisten : R1 520
R2 530
Rabu, 18 Juli 2012
Saham Pilihan Rabu, 18 Juli 2012
BBCA : MACD dan stochastic masih
terlihat kuat mengindikasikan peluang penguatan lanjutan.
Support : S1 7.650
S2 7.550
Resisten : R1 7.850
R2 8.050
Selasa, 17 Juli 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 17 Juli 2012
BBCA : Minat beli terlihat cukup kuat didukung oleh stochastic dan
MACD yang masih naik.
Support : S1 7.400
S2 7.200
Resisten : R1 7.650
R2 7.750
Selasa, 03 Juli 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 3 Juli 2012
dalam tren naik membuka peluang berlanjutnya
penguatan.
Support : S1 600 S2 540
Resisten : R1 660 R2 710
Rekomendasi : Sell on Strength
Jumat, 29 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 29 Juni 2012
ASRI : Terbentuk pola rebound didukung stochastic yang golden
cross dan volume yang meningkat membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1 455 S2 425
Resisten : R1
485 R2 500
Kamis, 28 Juni 2012
United Tractors, A challenging year, Danareksa
FY12 sales volume forecast lowered to 9,000 units
Sales of Komatsu rebounded 3% mom to 773 units in May 2012. By sector, the mining accounted
for 62% of the total sales volume, followed by the agro (18%), the construction (13%) and the
forestry (7%). Komatsu’s market share, however, was lower than in 2011 (45% in 5M12 vs 49% in
FY11). This owed to the fierce competition in the heavy equipment industry, especially the 20-ton
class excavator segment (40% of heavy equipment sales volume and 20% of heavy equipment
sales value). On account of this stiff competition, we trim our FY12-13 sales volume forecasts by
5.3-9.6% to 9,000-9,450 units. We feel more comfortable with these numbers, especially since the
highest monthly sales so far this year is the 821 units recorded in March. Moreover, the sales volume
in the last month of the year, December, is typically low. At the same time, we also foresee lower
margins as UT battles the competition through its promotional and financing schemes, although
a larger contribution from after-sales services should help support its margins.
Sales of Komatsu rebounded 3% mom to 773 units in May 2012. By sector, the mining accounted
for 62% of the total sales volume, followed by the agro (18%), the construction (13%) and the
forestry (7%). Komatsu’s market share, however, was lower than in 2011 (45% in 5M12 vs 49% in
FY11). This owed to the fierce competition in the heavy equipment industry, especially the 20-ton
class excavator segment (40% of heavy equipment sales volume and 20% of heavy equipment
sales value). On account of this stiff competition, we trim our FY12-13 sales volume forecasts by
5.3-9.6% to 9,000-9,450 units. We feel more comfortable with these numbers, especially since the
highest monthly sales so far this year is the 821 units recorded in March. Moreover, the sales volume
in the last month of the year, December, is typically low. At the same time, we also foresee lower
margins as UT battles the competition through its promotional and financing schemes, although
a larger contribution from after-sales services should help support its margins.
Indo Auto, Short term pain, CLSA
We checked with dealers and financing companies to see how things are
post higher down payment regulation (June 15). While sales in 2W had
weakened, we saw loopholes that will help softening the blow. Our
channel-checks also conclude that there is no standout among the new
low-MPV models, but we think Toyota can maintain dominance, given its
strong resale value and good after-sales services (vast dist. network).
While headwinds exist, the auto market had endured multiple crises. We
maintain O-PF on Astra, now at 14.2 PE12 and 12.4x PE13.
post higher down payment regulation (June 15). While sales in 2W had
weakened, we saw loopholes that will help softening the blow. Our
channel-checks also conclude that there is no standout among the new
low-MPV models, but we think Toyota can maintain dominance, given its
strong resale value and good after-sales services (vast dist. network).
While headwinds exist, the auto market had endured multiple crises. We
maintain O-PF on Astra, now at 14.2 PE12 and 12.4x PE13.
Global Economy - Monthly Review, Credit Suisse
The slow get slower; so do
most of the rest
We have revised down our 2012 and 2013 global GDP growth expectations to
3.3% and 3.8% from our April 3.6% and 4.2% estimates, respectively. The
downward revisions are broad-based across both developed and emerging
markets.
While we continue to hold the view that global GDP growth will be stronger in
the second half than the first, the ongoing downswing in cyclical momentum is
becoming more concerning as the slow path of many economies gets even
slower. Risks to our outlook still seem tilted to the downside barring a more
prompt and definitive resolution of Europe’s financial architecture crisis.
most of the rest
We have revised down our 2012 and 2013 global GDP growth expectations to
3.3% and 3.8% from our April 3.6% and 4.2% estimates, respectively. The
downward revisions are broad-based across both developed and emerging
markets.
While we continue to hold the view that global GDP growth will be stronger in
the second half than the first, the ongoing downswing in cyclical momentum is
becoming more concerning as the slow path of many economies gets even
slower. Risks to our outlook still seem tilted to the downside barring a more
prompt and definitive resolution of Europe’s financial architecture crisis.
Senin, 25 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Senin, 25 Juni 2012
ASRI : Stochastic mulai memasuki area
oversold sehingga tekanan diperkirakan sudah berkurang dan berpotensi rebound
dalam waktu dekat.
Support : S1 490 S2 460
Resisten : R1 510
R2 520
Jumat, 22 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 22 Juni 2012
BUMI : Minat beli terlihat cukup kuat dan berpotensi berlanjut,
namun kondisi market yang buruk dapat menekan saham ini kembali untuk sementara.
Support : S1 1.160 S2 970
Resisten : R1
1.310 R2 1.410
Kamis, 21 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 21 Juni 2012
BUMI : MACD golden cross dan histogram
mulai positif mengindikasikan tren yang mulai positif.
Support : S1 960 S2 750
Resisten : R1 1.300
R2 1.400
Selasa, 19 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 19 Juni 2012
ADRO : MACD golden cross dan histogram positif didukung oleh
munculnya indicator bullish parabolic sar membuka peluang dimulainya tren naik
Support : S1 1.190
S2 1.040
Resisten : R1 1.310
R2 1.410
Selasa, 12 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 12 Juni 2012
membuka peluang terjadinya tren naik.
Support : S1 1.180 S2 1.120
Resisten : R1 1.270 R2 1.300
Rekomendasi : Buy on Weakness
Senin, 11 Juni 2012
Ciputra Surya, Time for day in the sun, CLSA
Ciputra Surya (CTRS IJ) continued to record robust marketing sales
achieving 41.3% of FY12 target as of April 2012 number. Despite strong
performance of many successful launches in untapped regions, Surabaya
residential and commercial projects remains as CTRS’ backbone with
56.3% marketing sales contribution. Toll road expansion in Greater
Surabaya provides more connectivity and serves as further catalyst for
property price appreciation. We initiate coverage on CTRS with TP of
Rp2,500/sh, implying 40% discount to our estimated NAV. BUY.
achieving 41.3% of FY12 target as of April 2012 number. Despite strong
performance of many successful launches in untapped regions, Surabaya
residential and commercial projects remains as CTRS’ backbone with
56.3% marketing sales contribution. Toll road expansion in Greater
Surabaya provides more connectivity and serves as further catalyst for
property price appreciation. We initiate coverage on CTRS with TP of
Rp2,500/sh, implying 40% discount to our estimated NAV. BUY.
Bakrieland, Excess Baggage, CLSA
ELTY posted net loss of Rp19bn (US$2m) in FY11, mainly due to high
operational expenses and interest expenses relating to its toll road
business under its subsidiary, Bakrie Toll Road (BTR). ELTY targets lower
marketing sales this year with launches from its residential and
commercial projects. ELTY has planned to spin-off BTR since last year, but
it hasn’t able to pull it off. Only 1 out of 4 toll road projects under BTR is
operational, and the average daily traffic of 11k vehicle is still way below
management expectation due. We downgrade ELTY to U-PF with TP:
Rp85/share.
operational expenses and interest expenses relating to its toll road
business under its subsidiary, Bakrie Toll Road (BTR). ELTY targets lower
marketing sales this year with launches from its residential and
commercial projects. ELTY has planned to spin-off BTR since last year, but
it hasn’t able to pull it off. Only 1 out of 4 toll road projects under BTR is
operational, and the average daily traffic of 11k vehicle is still way below
management expectation due. We downgrade ELTY to U-PF with TP:
Rp85/share.
Indo Property, Sector Outlook, High Beta Play, CLSA
Property sales are still going strong, but sector has been under pressure.
As real asset, property is inflation-hedge, but stocks are high beta play,
correlated to interest rate movement. Rising policy risk may deter future
FDI but consumption growth story remains the alluring factor. We are
cautious on currency and its implication, but maintain positive view for
long term. Sector has become more investable due to growing size, and
now cheaper due to recent correction. Top picks: BSDE and CTRS.
As real asset, property is inflation-hedge, but stocks are high beta play,
correlated to interest rate movement. Rising policy risk may deter future
FDI but consumption growth story remains the alluring factor. We are
cautious on currency and its implication, but maintain positive view for
long term. Sector has become more investable due to growing size, and
now cheaper due to recent correction. Top picks: BSDE and CTRS.
Summarecon, Raising Value, CLSA
We raised our NAV estimate for SMRA to Rp2,000/sh on the back of
additional land bank in Serpong and Bekasi. We also raised our profit
forecasts for FY12/13 by 7.5% to reflect lower operating expenses.
SMRA is ramping up its Bekasi development, with ASP at Rp4m psm when
flyover is completed; closing the gap with Serpong’s ASP of Rp4.5m psm.
SMRA will also do a non-preemptive rights issuance in the future to buy
more land bank. Stock now trades at 26% disc to NAV. Maintain O-PF.
additional land bank in Serpong and Bekasi. We also raised our profit
forecasts for FY12/13 by 7.5% to reflect lower operating expenses.
SMRA is ramping up its Bekasi development, with ASP at Rp4m psm when
flyover is completed; closing the gap with Serpong’s ASP of Rp4.5m psm.
SMRA will also do a non-preemptive rights issuance in the future to buy
more land bank. Stock now trades at 26% disc to NAV. Maintain O-PF.
Jumat, 08 Juni 2012
Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Visit Note: Maintaining Guidance, Citi
Overcorrected to 2std below mean with price -23% (YTD) — The market has, in our
opinion, over reacted to weak micro loan growth considering 1) its strong network that
can be energized to revive micro loans, 2) strong CASA growth that continues to
support earning asset growth at low costs, and 3) declining NPLs supporting lower
credit cost. While 2012F may remain relatively subdued, BBRI’s franchise is robust
enough to deliver 25% pa book value growth. Our 2012F base case assumed a 50bps
decline in loan yield and another 100bps decline will impact earnings by 16%.
opinion, over reacted to weak micro loan growth considering 1) its strong network that
can be energized to revive micro loans, 2) strong CASA growth that continues to
support earning asset growth at low costs, and 3) declining NPLs supporting lower
credit cost. While 2012F may remain relatively subdued, BBRI’s franchise is robust
enough to deliver 25% pa book value growth. Our 2012F base case assumed a 50bps
decline in loan yield and another 100bps decline will impact earnings by 16%.
Indonesia Strategy, Still Like Supply Side, CLSA
Emerging markets have struggled in May and Indonesia has
underperformed relatively. One key reason is IDR pressure. A confluence
of aggressive monetary policy, BI’s late moves to intervene and
heightened “policy risk” has made the IDR (a confidence barometer)
vulnerable. Against a volatile backdrop we maintain our strategy of
BUYing the ‘Supply Side’ of Indonesia’s economy given high earnings
visibility & domestic business models less exposed to the global malaise.
underperformed relatively. One key reason is IDR pressure. A confluence
of aggressive monetary policy, BI’s late moves to intervene and
heightened “policy risk” has made the IDR (a confidence barometer)
vulnerable. Against a volatile backdrop we maintain our strategy of
BUYing the ‘Supply Side’ of Indonesia’s economy given high earnings
visibility & domestic business models less exposed to the global malaise.
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 8 Juni 2012
BWPT : Minat beli masih tinggi dan
dapat kembali mengangkat harga keatas
Support : S1
1.320 S2 1.300
Resisten : R1
1.370 R2 1.400
Selasa, 05 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 5 Juni 2012
AKRA : Walau masih berpotensi tertekan
namun minat beli masih mengimbangi
Support : S1 3.100
S2 3.050
Resisten : R1 3.300
R2 3.350
Kamis, 24 Mei 2012
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 24 Mei 2012
DOID : MACD golden cross dan histogram mulai positif membuka
peluang terjadinya penguatan.
Support : S1 435
S2 400
Resisten : R1 460
R2 480
Selasa, 15 Mei 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 15 Mei 2012
ASII : Stochastic sudah oversold dengan indikasi mulai rebound,
volume jual juga mulai berkurang.
Support : S1 68.550
S2 67.000
Resisten : R1
69.950 R2 70.900
Jumat, 11 Mei 2012
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 11 Mei 2012
AKRA : Stochastic dan histogram mulai menunjukan tren rebound.
Support : S1 3.850
S2 3.700
Resisten : R1
3.950 R2 4.025
Selasa, 08 Mei 2012
Indonesian banks, Results lacking momentum, Macquarie
Event
1Q12 results wrap for banks under coverage except for BNI, which has yet to
report its results.
Impact
Overall impression: Headline net profit growth in 1Q12 was in-line with our
estimates, up 13% YoY and up 22% if we exclude Garuda recovery at
Mandiri. Pre-provision profit, however, was weaker than expected (mainly in
large banks) from a combination of NIM and cost pressure. Loan-loss
provisions, which were much lower than expected, were the main driver for inline
profit growth. We would rank the results from best to worst as follows:
BTPN, Panin, Mandiri, BCA, Danamon, Bank BJB, and BRI.
1Q12 results wrap for banks under coverage except for BNI, which has yet to
report its results.
Impact
Overall impression: Headline net profit growth in 1Q12 was in-line with our
estimates, up 13% YoY and up 22% if we exclude Garuda recovery at
Mandiri. Pre-provision profit, however, was weaker than expected (mainly in
large banks) from a combination of NIM and cost pressure. Loan-loss
provisions, which were much lower than expected, were the main driver for inline
profit growth. We would rank the results from best to worst as follows:
BTPN, Panin, Mandiri, BCA, Danamon, Bank BJB, and BRI.
Indonesia Banks Big Picture, 1Q12 Performance Shows Strong Trends,Citi
BMRI and mid-sized banks deliver better results — Indonesian banks maintained
their YoY growth momentum in 1Q12 as balance sheets continued to strengthen. Net
profit growth for 8 banks (NP +13% reported and +25% ex Garuda write-back in 1Q11)
was driven by loan growth, and lower deposit rates and credit costs. Of the big banks,
BMRI’s revenue growth was the strongest, whereas BBRI continued to lag. Smaller
banks also benefitted from lower deposit costs. BMRI and BBNI remain our top Buys
and BBCA is still our top Sell. BBNI’s 1Q results are due later this month, in which we
expect moderating growth at the operating level due to slower loan growth.
their YoY growth momentum in 1Q12 as balance sheets continued to strengthen. Net
profit growth for 8 banks (NP +13% reported and +25% ex Garuda write-back in 1Q11)
was driven by loan growth, and lower deposit rates and credit costs. Of the big banks,
BMRI’s revenue growth was the strongest, whereas BBRI continued to lag. Smaller
banks also benefitted from lower deposit costs. BMRI and BBNI remain our top Buys
and BBCA is still our top Sell. BBNI’s 1Q results are due later this month, in which we
expect moderating growth at the operating level due to slower loan growth.
UNTR Downgrade, Early warning signs, YU
Our recent channel check reveals early signs of pressure in the heavy
equipment business from increasing competition. While we do not yet
see a major earnings downside risk at this stage, the generally riskier
environment warrants a valuation de-rating.
We cut our 2012-13 estimates by
5-6% on lower sales and margins.
Target price is lowered to Rp26,000
(based on lower target P/E of 11.6x,
-1SD from the 3-year mean) to reflect
the stock’s higher overall risk due to
increasing competition and exposure
to the softening coal price.
Downgrade from Neutral to
Underperform.
equipment business from increasing competition. While we do not yet
see a major earnings downside risk at this stage, the generally riskier
environment warrants a valuation de-rating.
We cut our 2012-13 estimates by
5-6% on lower sales and margins.
Target price is lowered to Rp26,000
(based on lower target P/E of 11.6x,
-1SD from the 3-year mean) to reflect
the stock’s higher overall risk due to
increasing competition and exposure
to the softening coal price.
Downgrade from Neutral to
Underperform.
Jumat, 04 Mei 2012
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 4 Mei 2012
ADHI : Bullish parabolic sar kembali muncul didukung menghijaunya
kembali histogram dan volume yang tinggi membuka peluang penguatan lanjutan.
Support : S1 980 S2 930
Resisten : R1 1.040
R2 1.100
Kamis, 03 Mei 2012
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 3 Mei 2012
MACD rebound berpeluang golden cross membuka peluang
penguatan lanjutan.
Support : S1 72.800
S2 71.850
Resisten : R1 75.200
R2 76.750
Kamis, 26 April 2012
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk, 1Q results: 29% loan growth, seeking a solution to variable bond holdings, JP Morgan
BMRI’s 1Q profit came in at Rp3.4T, in line with our estimate and slightly
ahead of consensus. We see moves to reduce variable bond exposure as a
positive, but wonder whether it is premature to price upside on that count
into the stock price; hence, we maintain our Dec-12 Rp7,250 PT.
Healthy results: At Rp3.4T, BMRI’s 1Q FY11 PAT was up 10% q/q
and came in 4% ahead of our estimate. Adjusted for one-off recoveries
last year, PAT grew by 39% y/y. Growth was driven by volumes – loans
grew by 29% y/y (in line with JPME), while margins (NIM 5.65%) have
been rangebound over the past five quarters. As 1Q PAT was 25% of
FY12E consensus, it might result in mild upside to estimates.
ahead of consensus. We see moves to reduce variable bond exposure as a
positive, but wonder whether it is premature to price upside on that count
into the stock price; hence, we maintain our Dec-12 Rp7,250 PT.
Healthy results: At Rp3.4T, BMRI’s 1Q FY11 PAT was up 10% q/q
and came in 4% ahead of our estimate. Adjusted for one-off recoveries
last year, PAT grew by 39% y/y. Growth was driven by volumes – loans
grew by 29% y/y (in line with JPME), while margins (NIM 5.65%) have
been rangebound over the past five quarters. As 1Q PAT was 25% of
FY12E consensus, it might result in mild upside to estimates.
Astra Agro Lestari, Disappointing 1Q12 Results on Lower CPO ASPs and Higher Costs; Reiterate Sell, Citi
1Q12 in a snapshot — CPO sales volume grew 5.2% YoY to 299k tons (23% of our
FY12E of 1.31m tons) but was insufficient to curb the negative impact of the 6.9% YoY
drop in CPO ASPs to Rp7,706/kg. Hence, revenues dropped 7% YoY to Rp2.6trn (20%
of CIRA FY12E; 22% consensus). This, along with higher COGS and OPEX (+9% YoY
and 32% YoY respectively) subsequently led to margin deterioration and dragged down
earnings by 42% YoY to Rp378bn (13% of CIRA FY12E and 14% consensus). Fig 2-5.
FY12E of 1.31m tons) but was insufficient to curb the negative impact of the 6.9% YoY
drop in CPO ASPs to Rp7,706/kg. Hence, revenues dropped 7% YoY to Rp2.6trn (20%
of CIRA FY12E; 22% consensus). This, along with higher COGS and OPEX (+9% YoY
and 32% YoY respectively) subsequently led to margin deterioration and dragged down
earnings by 42% YoY to Rp378bn (13% of CIRA FY12E and 14% consensus). Fig 2-5.
PT Kalbe Farma Tbk, 1Q12: Strong Quarter; Beats Expectations, Morgan Stanley
Quick Comment: Kalbe Farma reported strong results
for 1Q12. Revenue, EBIT, and PAT grew 27.7%, 23.6%,
and 27.7% yoy, respectively. Revenue beat
expectations by 4%, while earnings beat MS estimates
by 5-6%. The upside was driven by better-thanexpected
growth and margins from the Prescription
Pharma and Nutritionals divisions. 1Q PAT is 24% of our
full- year profit estimate (vs. historical average of c22%).
We continue to view Kalbe as a better consumption play
within our Indonesian consumer coverage and retain our
OW rating.
for 1Q12. Revenue, EBIT, and PAT grew 27.7%, 23.6%,
and 27.7% yoy, respectively. Revenue beat
expectations by 4%, while earnings beat MS estimates
by 5-6%. The upside was driven by better-thanexpected
growth and margins from the Prescription
Pharma and Nutritionals divisions. 1Q PAT is 24% of our
full- year profit estimate (vs. historical average of c22%).
We continue to view Kalbe as a better consumption play
within our Indonesian consumer coverage and retain our
OW rating.
BW Plantation, 1Q12: Strong y/y growth, Nomura
Earnings came in line with our and consensus estimates
1Q12 earnings made up 20% of our full-year forecasts and 21% of
consensus FY12 forecasts.
What do the results mean?
The results reaffirm our belief that BWPT will show strong earnings
growth in FY12. However, while our numbers are slightly higher than
consensus, our PB vs excess ROE valuation framework indicates that
there is not much room left to chase the stock at these levels.
1Q production growth is weak (+4% y/y) considering the >20% growth
that consensus expects for FY12. This is actually an industry-wide
problem, particularly in March, and we think production should normalise
from April onwards, but it does highlight that risks for BWPT are actually
biased on the downside since expectations are very high.
1Q12 earnings made up 20% of our full-year forecasts and 21% of
consensus FY12 forecasts.
What do the results mean?
The results reaffirm our belief that BWPT will show strong earnings
growth in FY12. However, while our numbers are slightly higher than
consensus, our PB vs excess ROE valuation framework indicates that
there is not much room left to chase the stock at these levels.
1Q production growth is weak (+4% y/y) considering the >20% growth
that consensus expects for FY12. This is actually an industry-wide
problem, particularly in March, and we think production should normalise
from April onwards, but it does highlight that risks for BWPT are actually
biased on the downside since expectations are very high.
Astra International, Rising competition in a growing market, Nomura
Astra’s best selling cars face
real competition for the first
time since their launch in 2004
Since their launch in Jan 2004, we think the best-selling Toyota
Avanza/Daihatsu Xenia have faced no real competition in their segment.
However, we expect this to change this year, with the launch of Suzuki
Ertiga and the upcoming launch of Nissan NV200/Evalia in June ‘12.
Rising competition in a growing market is a clear emerging theme, in our
view.
real competition for the first
time since their launch in 2004
Since their launch in Jan 2004, we think the best-selling Toyota
Avanza/Daihatsu Xenia have faced no real competition in their segment.
However, we expect this to change this year, with the launch of Suzuki
Ertiga and the upcoming launch of Nissan NV200/Evalia in June ‘12.
Rising competition in a growing market is a clear emerging theme, in our
view.
Rabu, 25 April 2012
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 26 April 2012
GZCO : Stochastic mulai rebound dari area oversold membuka peluang
terjadinya teknikal rebound lanjutan.
Support : S1 335
S2 320
Resisten : R1 350
R2 370
Selasa, 24 April 2012
Jasa Marga, In growing phase, CLSA
JSMR remains our preferred pick in infra space. It booked a strong 11%
YoY growth in 1Q12 traffic. While we trimmed our earnings to reflect
changes in accounting booking and some increases in ex-labor costs,
margin will continue to expand on the back of operational leverage and
more automation. We raised or DCF-valuation to Rp8,950/sh reflecting
higher assumptions on tariff and traffic and the additional NusaDua
project. Our TP reflects 28% disc to this DCF-valuation.
YoY growth in 1Q12 traffic. While we trimmed our earnings to reflect
changes in accounting booking and some increases in ex-labor costs,
margin will continue to expand on the back of operational leverage and
more automation. We raised or DCF-valuation to Rp8,950/sh reflecting
higher assumptions on tariff and traffic and the additional NusaDua
project. Our TP reflects 28% disc to this DCF-valuation.
MNC, Winning in PRIME time, CLSA
MNCN is sitting in the PRIME position. The ad cycle couldn’t be better with
rising consumption & FDI driving competition. While the rate card
expands +15-20%, MNC’s cost base is largely fixed driving huge
operating leverage. We forecast 20% top-line & 40% bottom-line growth
in 2012. MNCN trades at a discount to consumer companies despite
higher operating leverage and being a beneficiary of competition. The
stock is one of key conviction calls – our TP implies 28% upside. BUY.
rising consumption & FDI driving competition. While the rate card
expands +15-20%, MNC’s cost base is largely fixed driving huge
operating leverage. We forecast 20% top-line & 40% bottom-line growth
in 2012. MNCN trades at a discount to consumer companies despite
higher operating leverage and being a beneficiary of competition. The
stock is one of key conviction calls – our TP implies 28% upside. BUY.
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 24 April 2012
GGRM : Stochatsic kembali golden cross membuka peluang
berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1 58.500
S2 57.000
Resisten : R1 60.450
R2 62.550
Jumat, 20 April 2012
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 20 April 2012
ANTM : Stochastic golden cross dan
histogram menghijau mengindikasikan dapat berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1
1.730 S2 1.690
Resisten : R1 1.780
R2 1.820
Kamis, 19 April 2012
Ace Hardware, 100 stores by 2015, CLSA
Having opened its 59th new store in Tebet (South Jakarta) this month, the
company is on track to meet their targeted 15 additional stores or +20%
on gross space basis. Coupled with strong same-store-sales growth
(Sssg) number of 18.3% as of 3M12, we foresee the company to deliver a
robust 26% top-line growth this year. Well execution should lead them to
possess 100 stores by 2015, while competition may however limit their
margin expansion. We maintain our BUY rating on the company with
slightly lower TP of Rp5,400/sh to reflect some margin pressure.
company is on track to meet their targeted 15 additional stores or +20%
on gross space basis. Coupled with strong same-store-sales growth
(Sssg) number of 18.3% as of 3M12, we foresee the company to deliver a
robust 26% top-line growth this year. Well execution should lead them to
possess 100 stores by 2015, while competition may however limit their
margin expansion. We maintain our BUY rating on the company with
slightly lower TP of Rp5,400/sh to reflect some margin pressure.
BTPN, Productive bank, CLSA
BTPN is one of the few banks with a unique value proposition. After its
successful story in the micro segment, the bank is now entering the
“productive poor” segment, which also offers superb margin. This effort
will support the bank’s sustainable growth. We like the bank’s strong
management and strategy serving a very niche market. We reinitiate the
stock with an outperform recommendation.
successful story in the micro segment, the bank is now entering the
“productive poor” segment, which also offers superb margin. This effort
will support the bank’s sustainable growth. We like the bank’s strong
management and strategy serving a very niche market. We reinitiate the
stock with an outperform recommendation.
Bukit Asam, Not giving up, CLSA
We attended an analyst briefing hosted by PTBA’s corporate secretary and investor relations team. Key takeaways are 1Q12 production is likely at the lower end of our estimates and probably disappoint consensus at c. 3mt. On the plus side, domestic prices are locked in at an average US$87/t (+3% yoy), in line with our estimate. The company is still adamant on winning back concessions issued by the Lahat regency in South Sumatra, including Adaro’s MIP concession.
MBSS, Barging through, CLSA
MBSS is a coal transportation and logistics provider servicing the coal industry predominantly in Kalimantan. It is 51% owned by energy investment group Indika Energy with the founding family still in charge of day to day operations. MBSS has a diversified customer base and strong track record in growing operations on stable margins. It is not a shipping company and is leveraged to coal production growth. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and target price of Rp2,000/sh
Rabu, 18 April 2012
Saham Pilihan Rabu, 18 April 2012
BMTR : Histogram hijau yang mendekati area positif dengan MACD
yang mulai kembali rebound membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1 1.660
S2 1.610
Resisten : R1
1.770 R2 1.800
Selasa, 17 April 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 17 April 2012
BBRI : MACD, histogram dan stochastic
dalam tren yang meningkat mengindikasikan kenaikan harga masih dapat berlanjut.
Support : S1 6.950
S2 6.850
Resisten : R1 7.150
R2 7.300
Jumat, 13 April 2012
Gozco, Forever Young
Gozco Plantations (GZCO IJ) is showered with abundant land bank
availability and young age profile (average age of 7 compared to peers of
10). Factoring additional mature hectarage of 2.1k ha, we estimate 20%
growth in CPO production, leading to 10% EPS growth in 2012. But this is
just the beginning, with FFB production Cagr of 52% from 2011-14CL, we
believe Gozco full potential to kick off in 2014. We set our TP at Rp
410/sh, implying 10x 2013 P/E, 30% discount to Astra Agro. O-PF.
availability and young age profile (average age of 7 compared to peers of
10). Factoring additional mature hectarage of 2.1k ha, we estimate 20%
growth in CPO production, leading to 10% EPS growth in 2012. But this is
just the beginning, with FFB production Cagr of 52% from 2011-14CL, we
believe Gozco full potential to kick off in 2014. We set our TP at Rp
410/sh, implying 10x 2013 P/E, 30% discount to Astra Agro. O-PF.
Sampoerna Agro, Inferior margin, CLSA
Sampoerna Agro (SGRO IJ), the fourth-largest plantation company by
planted area, would likely to see inferior margin compared to its peers,
particularly during strong CPO price environment. The fact that their
plasma production accounts for 40% of company’s plantation area would
translate to higher cost – of which about 70-75% of production cost still
come from FFB purchased. Re-initiate with U-PF on its inferior margin and
more volatile production.
planted area, would likely to see inferior margin compared to its peers,
particularly during strong CPO price environment. The fact that their
plasma production accounts for 40% of company’s plantation area would
translate to higher cost – of which about 70-75% of production cost still
come from FFB purchased. Re-initiate with U-PF on its inferior margin and
more volatile production.
Lonsum, Superior profitability, CLSA
We like London Sumatra (LSIP IJ) on its superior cost structure and
production growth profile. We expect to see company’s oil yield
improving to 4.5-4.8tons/ha in 2012-13, from 4.3tons/ha in 2011
supported by its continued infrastructure improvement coupled with
maturing age profile. Its Ebit margin also stands out at 41-42% range,
the highest amongst CPO companies under our coverage. We set our TP
at Rp3,600/sh, implying 13x 2013 P/E, 10% discount to Astra Agro. BUY.
production growth profile. We expect to see company’s oil yield
improving to 4.5-4.8tons/ha in 2012-13, from 4.3tons/ha in 2011
supported by its continued infrastructure improvement coupled with
maturing age profile. Its Ebit margin also stands out at 41-42% range,
the highest amongst CPO companies under our coverage. We set our TP
at Rp3,600/sh, implying 13x 2013 P/E, 10% discount to Astra Agro. BUY.
Astra Agro, Mounting production cost, CLSA
Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ) is set to see production growth slowing to
5% Cagr over 2011-14CL as plantation ages, exacerbated by lack of land
bank and rising costs. Third party FFB dependency will continue to erode
margin, while rising wage will lead to 5% higher production costs. We
thus trim our 2012/13 EPS by 12-16% respectively elaborating new
export tax as well as higher production costs. We set our TP at
Rp24,000/sh, based on 14x FY13 EPS, its 5-yrs mean P/E. Re-initiate
with U-PF.
5% Cagr over 2011-14CL as plantation ages, exacerbated by lack of land
bank and rising costs. Third party FFB dependency will continue to erode
margin, while rising wage will lead to 5% higher production costs. We
thus trim our 2012/13 EPS by 12-16% respectively elaborating new
export tax as well as higher production costs. We set our TP at
Rp24,000/sh, based on 14x FY13 EPS, its 5-yrs mean P/E. Re-initiate
with U-PF.
Astra Intl, The magnificent Honda, CLSA
Honda is not slowing down even after a victory over Yamaha last year. It
gained another 4% lead over Yamaha in 1Q12, supported by successful
launch of new model, with more to come. Impact from higher down
payments on financing and potential subsidized fuel price hike are risks to
earnings, but Astra is a much more diversified company now, with less
reliance on 2W market. With demand unleashes on the under-penetrated
4W market and UNTR business expansion unfolds, we expect mkt cap to
reach US$50bn by 2015. Maintain O-PF.
gained another 4% lead over Yamaha in 1Q12, supported by successful
launch of new model, with more to come. Impact from higher down
payments on financing and potential subsidized fuel price hike are risks to
earnings, but Astra is a much more diversified company now, with less
reliance on 2W market. With demand unleashes on the under-penetrated
4W market and UNTR business expansion unfolds, we expect mkt cap to
reach US$50bn by 2015. Maintain O-PF.
Indonesia Plantation, Supply tightness, CLSA
We believe palm oil supply will be tight in the near-term as weather
volatility prevails amid lack of new plantings. Particularly for Indo,
production growth of palm oil will likely decelerate to 6% this year from
2011’s 8% as trees enter biological slowdown while domestic demand is
seen rising. As a consequence, we uplift our CPO price assumption to
RM3,300/t this year. Amongst Indo plantation companies, we like LSIP
given its superior profitability and strong production growth potential.
volatility prevails amid lack of new plantings. Particularly for Indo,
production growth of palm oil will likely decelerate to 6% this year from
2011’s 8% as trees enter biological slowdown while domestic demand is
seen rising. As a consequence, we uplift our CPO price assumption to
RM3,300/t this year. Amongst Indo plantation companies, we like LSIP
given its superior profitability and strong production growth potential.
Selasa, 10 April 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 10 April 2012
MEDC : Stochastic golden cross di area oversold dan berpeluang
reversal keatas melanjutkan tren naik
Support : S1 2.075
S2 1.990
Resisten : R1 2.125
R2 2.175
Senin, 09 April 2012
Bank Mandiri, Saved by retail, CLSA
While the lower yield on VR bonds may continue weighing on the bank’s
performance this year, a better loan mix and funding composition will
compensate for it, in our view. Against this backdrop (which we believe is
more external than internal), we like the bank’s consistent efforts to grow
its retail segment and strengthen its deposit franchise. We therefore
maintain our outperform call on the bank despite heightened regulatory
risk which may put pressure on the bank’s LT ROE, similar to other banks
in the system.
performance this year, a better loan mix and funding composition will
compensate for it, in our view. Against this backdrop (which we believe is
more external than internal), we like the bank’s consistent efforts to grow
its retail segment and strengthen its deposit franchise. We therefore
maintain our outperform call on the bank despite heightened regulatory
risk which may put pressure on the bank’s LT ROE, similar to other banks
in the system.
Saham Pilihan, Senin 9 April 2012
MTLA : Terlihat tren naik yang diikuti
oleh volume yang cukup baik.
Support : S1
505 S2 470
Resisten : R1
550 R2 600
Kamis, 05 April 2012
Indo industrial estate, Shimmering industrialization, CLSA
No sign of demand slowing down in sight for industrial land, as industrial
estate developers posted sterling performance in FY11. Given robust
demand and land scarcity, the industrial land price upward momentum
picked up where they left off at the end of 2011. The resurgence of
manufacturing sector, especially automotive and related sector, serves as
another catalyst for industrial land. We expect the trend to continue for
the next few years. Despite strong performance, industrial estate
developers are still trading at average 53% disc. to NAV. Positive view for
industrial estate plays.
estate developers posted sterling performance in FY11. Given robust
demand and land scarcity, the industrial land price upward momentum
picked up where they left off at the end of 2011. The resurgence of
manufacturing sector, especially automotive and related sector, serves as
another catalyst for industrial land. We expect the trend to continue for
the next few years. Despite strong performance, industrial estate
developers are still trading at average 53% disc. to NAV. Positive view for
industrial estate plays.
Rabu, 04 April 2012
Indonesian Coal, Mixed FY11, CLSA
Indonesian thermal coal producers lived up to their production promises in FY11, but reported a mixed set of results. Standouts were Adaro and ITM which reported above ours and consensus expectations on strong ASP and cost control. Oil prices present the biggest risk to earnings in 12CL having averaged US$117/t during 1Q11. We factor in increased fuel costs into our numbers. Top picks remain ITM for defensive earnings and yield and Harum for highest production growth under our coverage.
Selasa, 03 April 2012
Bank Danamon, Acquisition in the offing, CLSA
Fullerton Financial Holdings, a unit of Temasek, has entered into a share
agreement with DBS Group Holdings to sell its subsidiary Asia Financial’s
stake in BDMN to DBS. In addition, DBS will offer cash for the minorities,
at Rp7,000/share which is attractive in our view. We therefore prefer to
sell BDMN at a price close to Rp7,000/share and will review our price
target and recommendation accordingly after BDMN’s trading reopens.
agreement with DBS Group Holdings to sell its subsidiary Asia Financial’s
stake in BDMN to DBS. In addition, DBS will offer cash for the minorities,
at Rp7,000/share which is attractive in our view. We therefore prefer to
sell BDMN at a price close to Rp7,000/share and will review our price
target and recommendation accordingly after BDMN’s trading reopens.
Indocement, Poised for growth, CLSA
Indocement has excess capacity and less cost pressure to deliver the
highest profit growth for FY12 vs peers. We raised our ave. selling price
growth assumption to 4%; ytd prices rose by 2%. We expect GP margin
to rebound to 48% in FY12 (FY11:46%), maintaining its superior margin
vs peers. INTP has no debt, and generates enough cashflow to fund more
expansion in the future. Valuation is still attractive vs peers. BUY.
highest profit growth for FY12 vs peers. We raised our ave. selling price
growth assumption to 4%; ytd prices rose by 2%. We expect GP margin
to rebound to 48% in FY12 (FY11:46%), maintaining its superior margin
vs peers. INTP has no debt, and generates enough cashflow to fund more
expansion in the future. Valuation is still attractive vs peers. BUY.
Holcim Indo, Strong momentum, CLSA
Holcim has excess capacity this year to grab market share; we expect
11% YoY sales growth in FY12/14; 2M12 sales grew a strong 26.8% YoY
vs 19.4% of market, at 16% of our FY expectation. We raised our ASP
growth assumption to 4% which will enable stable margin this year. The
company’s balance sheet is getting stronger, and should be moving into a
net cash position in 2014; even with US$325m capex expansion for 2013-
16. Holcim trades at a very attractive valuation vs peers. BUY.
11% YoY sales growth in FY12/14; 2M12 sales grew a strong 26.8% YoY
vs 19.4% of market, at 16% of our FY expectation. We raised our ASP
growth assumption to 4% which will enable stable margin this year. The
company’s balance sheet is getting stronger, and should be moving into a
net cash position in 2014; even with US$325m capex expansion for 2013-
16. Holcim trades at a very attractive valuation vs peers. BUY.
Semen Gresik, Limited upside this year, CLSA
With new capacity coming only in Apr and July, SMGR is likely to just be
able to maintain market share from last year. The company will also be
worst hit on margin given rising energy costs and depreciation despite
the 4% ASP growth assumption. SMGR also needs to gear up for
expansion and starts expensing higher interest in 2013 (previously
capitalized). Valuation is also more expensive vs peers. Maintain U-PF.
able to maintain market share from last year. The company will also be
worst hit on margin given rising energy costs and depreciation despite
the 4% ASP growth assumption. SMGR also needs to gear up for
expansion and starts expensing higher interest in 2013 (previously
capitalized). Valuation is also more expensive vs peers. Maintain U-PF.
Cement story, CLSA
Cement prices have started to gradually rise from 2Q11 until the
year end with a 5% weighted average increase. However, cement
price movement has been mixed in the first two months of 2012
with Kalimantan and Bali showing a strengthening trend (>15%)
but other islands showing weakening trend. The overall price
adjustment in eight cities under our watch is around +3.3%.
Strong demand from infrastructure projects in Kalimantan coupled
with bad weather and heavy congestion at ports has enabled
retailers to increase prices.
year end with a 5% weighted average increase. However, cement
price movement has been mixed in the first two months of 2012
with Kalimantan and Bali showing a strengthening trend (>15%)
but other islands showing weakening trend. The overall price
adjustment in eight cities under our watch is around +3.3%.
Strong demand from infrastructure projects in Kalimantan coupled
with bad weather and heavy congestion at ports has enabled
retailers to increase prices.
Jumat, 30 Maret 2012
ICBP, Less savoury, CLSA
We foresee flat Ebit margin of 13% this year despite lower input cost, due
to less likelihood of price adjustment coupled with stiffer competition
which lead to greater ads spending. The company has targeted to
increase its ads spending by about 30% this year, or about 3.5% of its
total sales, from 2.9% in 2011. We thus trim our earnings assumption by
3-5% for FY12-13CL, which translate to 8% earnings Cagr over FY11-
14CL, halved from its consumer peers. Retain U-PF with new TP of
Rp5,400/sh.
to less likelihood of price adjustment coupled with stiffer competition
which lead to greater ads spending. The company has targeted to
increase its ads spending by about 30% this year, or about 3.5% of its
total sales, from 2.9% in 2011. We thus trim our earnings assumption by
3-5% for FY12-13CL, which translate to 8% earnings Cagr over FY11-
14CL, halved from its consumer peers. Retain U-PF with new TP of
Rp5,400/sh.
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 300312
AALI : MACD golden cross diikuti oleh
histogram positif masih mengindikasikan tren naik
Support : S1
22.100 S2 21.250
Resisten : R1
24.150 R2 24.800
Kamis, 29 Maret 2012
Indonesian Strategy, Fuel Price Hike Decision Likely To Be Decided By Voting, Citi
Negotiation on fuel price hike to be completed this week; likely by 29 Mar voting
— Although the six factions (which control 75.5% of the 560 House Seats) agreed to
set the fuel subsidy at Rp137trn (US$14.9bn), which could clear the way for the
government to raise the price of subsidized fuel by 33% to Rp6,000/litre (not the first
time as fuel prices was at Rp6,000/litre in May-Dec 2008 and GDP still grew by 6.1%
YoY), the government still needs the approval of the House to revoke an article in the
law that governs the 2012 State Budget. The article states that the government cannot
raise the price of subsidized gasoline at gas stations. The decision is likely to be linked
to the voting being done on Thursday 29 March, but could drag on until right before the
expectation of fuel price hike on 1 April 2012. The government needs to get 50% + 1
vote to get approval from the parliament.
— Although the six factions (which control 75.5% of the 560 House Seats) agreed to
set the fuel subsidy at Rp137trn (US$14.9bn), which could clear the way for the
government to raise the price of subsidized fuel by 33% to Rp6,000/litre (not the first
time as fuel prices was at Rp6,000/litre in May-Dec 2008 and GDP still grew by 6.1%
YoY), the government still needs the approval of the House to revoke an article in the
law that governs the 2012 State Budget. The article states that the government cannot
raise the price of subsidized gasoline at gas stations. The decision is likely to be linked
to the voting being done on Thursday 29 March, but could drag on until right before the
expectation of fuel price hike on 1 April 2012. The government needs to get 50% + 1
vote to get approval from the parliament.
Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK), Alert: Solid 4Q11 Results; Margins Firming Up, Citi
What stood out in the numbers — Net earnings more than tripled Y-Y in 4Q11 (+64%
Q-Q) to US$175m on higher ASP. This brings 2011 net earnings to more than double YY
to US$550m – 5% above consensus estimate and 15% above Citi’s. While the surge
in net earnings was mainly due to the low base in 4Q10 (on heavy rainfall) and one-off
item in 3Q11, the operating results were robust in 4Q11. Gross and operating margins
firmed up sequentially in 4Q11 to 39.7% and 35.1% respectively, from 35.6% and
32.4% in 3Q11, thanks to a substantially higher ASP and good cost control.
Q-Q) to US$175m on higher ASP. This brings 2011 net earnings to more than double YY
to US$550m – 5% above consensus estimate and 15% above Citi’s. While the surge
in net earnings was mainly due to the low base in 4Q10 (on heavy rainfall) and one-off
item in 3Q11, the operating results were robust in 4Q11. Gross and operating margins
firmed up sequentially in 4Q11 to 39.7% and 35.1% respectively, from 35.6% and
32.4% in 3Q11, thanks to a substantially higher ASP and good cost control.
Mitra Adiperkasa, Mounting cost pressure, CLSA
Despite strong 4Q11 result, we believe Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) might
face near-term potential operating risk from mounting cost pressure and
higher working capital requirement this year. Its plan to open two new
department stores paired with rising salary and rental cost should
translate to lower Ebit margin of 9.4% (vs 2011’s 10.6%). Armed with
these facts, we slightly cut our earnings estimate by 4% for FY12-13CL
and downgrade our recommendation to O-PF, from Buy.
face near-term potential operating risk from mounting cost pressure and
higher working capital requirement this year. Its plan to open two new
department stores paired with rising salary and rental cost should
translate to lower Ebit margin of 9.4% (vs 2011’s 10.6%). Armed with
these facts, we slightly cut our earnings estimate by 4% for FY12-13CL
and downgrade our recommendation to O-PF, from Buy.
Saham Pilihan, Kamis 29 Maret 2012
AALI : Volume beli meningkat
signifikan membuat MACD dab stochastic bergerak rebound keatas, histogram
menuju area positif masih membuka peluang penguatan.
Support : S1
22.100 S2 21.250
Resisten : R1
23.000 R2 24.100
Selasa, 27 Maret 2012
AKR, Fuelling ahead, CLSA
AKR reported a strong FY11 result, with in line with CL estimates and 5% ahead of consensus. Revenue grew 82% and profit 142% YoY driven by a 50% increase in fuel volumes. The company remains well positioned in a growing industrial fuel consumption market and presents a unique option on retail fuel deregulation. Re-iterate BUY with Rp5,000/sh target price, implying 27% upside.
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 27 Maret 2012
AKRA : Walau tren masih turun, namun
stochastic mulai bergerak rebound mengindikasikan potensi kenaikan.
Support : S1 3.975
S2 3.850
Resisten : R1 4.150 R2 4.300
Senin, 26 Maret 2012
Indofood CBP, Still lacking upside catalysts, Macquarie
Event
􀂃
We
analyse ICBP’s FY11A result (released on 20/3) in detail, and take
the
opportunity to
update our investment thesis, earnings forecasts/outlook,
and
valuation. We
maintain our Underperform call, but raise our valuation and
PT
to Rp5,100 from
Rp4,900, and raise our FY12E earnings estimates by 7.2%.
􀂃
While
ICBP is trading only modestly above our fair value estimate, we
believe
the story remains
unexciting on account of the company’s relatively weak
growth prospects,
coupled with its premium operating margins. We view the
stock as a
fully-valued “cash cow” that is likely to continue to tread water,
and
in a growth market,
significantly underperform on a relative basis.
Saham Pilihan Senin, 26 Maret 2012
PNLF : MACD golden cross dan histogram
positif mengindikasikan tren positif kedepan.
Support : S1
136 S2 128
Resisten : R1 144 R2 147
Kamis, 22 Maret 2012
Market strategy, Inflated expectations, CLSA
Inflation risks have heightened in Indonesia on the back of very
aggressive accommodative monetary policy, expectations of a hike in the
subsidized fuel price & firm core inflation. While these concerns have
drawn parallels to India (where inflation pressures have been persistent)
our case study shows structural differences supporting the view that
inflation pressures in Indonesia will be temporary versus chronic.
aggressive accommodative monetary policy, expectations of a hike in the
subsidized fuel price & firm core inflation. While these concerns have
drawn parallels to India (where inflation pressures have been persistent)
our case study shows structural differences supporting the view that
inflation pressures in Indonesia will be temporary versus chronic.
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 22 Maret 2012
ASII : Terbentuk pola rebound setelah
kembali munculnya minat beli ditandai dengan kembali menghijaunya histogram dan
reboundnya stochastic membuka peluang kembali naiknya ASII.
Support : S1
69.850 S2 67.100
Resisten : R1 73.200 R2 74.650
Rabu, 21 Maret 2012
United Tractors, Feb Volume Wrap: A recovery, but tracking lower than guidance in 1Q, JP Morgan
UNTR's 14% outperformance versus the JCI over the last quarter has been
boosted, in our view, by its limited exposure to policy risk and inflation
pressures relative to other blue chips. While growth prospects and
favourable currency leverage still dispose us positively, tighter valuations
now mean that UNTR probably needs to deliver Komatsu sales matching
guidance (9,000-9,500 units) rather than our more conservative 8,000 unit
estimate to open up fresh absolute upside. Maintain OW, Rp 32,500 PT.
boosted, in our view, by its limited exposure to policy risk and inflation
pressures relative to other blue chips. While growth prospects and
favourable currency leverage still dispose us positively, tighter valuations
now mean that UNTR probably needs to deliver Komatsu sales matching
guidance (9,000-9,500 units) rather than our more conservative 8,000 unit
estimate to open up fresh absolute upside. Maintain OW, Rp 32,500 PT.
Selasa, 20 Maret 2012
Indonesian Property, Restraining growth, CLSA
Central Bank’s regulation of 30% min down payment for mortgage will
have more negative impact on demand for the lower income segment,
rather than the mid-up. Some listed developers have exposure to the
mid-low segment, but this is less than 15% of sales. Some developers
have already applied higher DP, hence will experience minimal impact.
To sustain demand, developers may extend payment period for DP or the
instalment period. Sector remains compelling; now at 36% disc to NAV.
have more negative impact on demand for the lower income segment,
rather than the mid-up. Some listed developers have exposure to the
mid-low segment, but this is less than 15% of sales. Some developers
have already applied higher DP, hence will experience minimal impact.
To sustain demand, developers may extend payment period for DP or the
instalment period. Sector remains compelling; now at 36% disc to NAV.
Market Strategy, Driving Conviction, CLSA
At the beginning of the year we based our Conviction List around 3 key
investment drivers for 2012: 1) The return of FDI and competition 2)
Progress on investment & infrastructure 3) The lower cost of capital.
While the JCI has been muted our Conviction List has performed very
strongly YTD. We are OW media, infra, property & cement as they are the
beneficiaries of these tailwinds which continue to play out.
investment drivers for 2012: 1) The return of FDI and competition 2)
Progress on investment & infrastructure 3) The lower cost of capital.
While the JCI has been muted our Conviction List has performed very
strongly YTD. We are OW media, infra, property & cement as they are the
beneficiaries of these tailwinds which continue to play out.
Bumi Resources, Alert: Non-Deal Roadshow Insights: Turning Shareholder Friendlier? - Citi
Generally positive response —The majority of 28 investors we met during the NDR in
UK and Europe last week appeared to be underweight or neutral at best on Bumi
Resources. However, most of the investors warmed up to the company’s main
messages of deleveraging and production ramp up. Hence, the share price is likely to
see a substantial rebound if the company delivers on these key issues.
UK and Europe last week appeared to be underweight or neutral at best on Bumi
Resources. However, most of the investors warmed up to the company’s main
messages of deleveraging and production ramp up. Hence, the share price is likely to
see a substantial rebound if the company delivers on these key issues.
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 20 Maret 2012
BWPT : MACD dan histogram masih dalam
tren penguatan.
Support : S1
1.620 S2 1.580
Resisten : R1
1.720 R2 1.790
Senin, 19 Maret 2012
Indonesia Real Estate, New maximum mortgage LTV of 70%, JP Morgan
Concerned with a potential real estate bubble, Bank of Indonesia has
restricted the maximum mortgage Loan to Total Value (LTV) from 80% to
70%. Banks would need to comply with the rule starting June 15th. We
believe the bulk of Indonesia real estate buyers (for our listed universe of
developers) are mainly affluent, with only a minority using mortgages,
hence the impact on marketing sales should be modest. The rule, in our
view, would only provide modest impact in the short term and hence we
see it as a buying opportunity. Long-term however, this introduces a risk
that rapid increases in ASPs may invite regulatory scrutiny. Our top pick
is SMRA.
restricted the maximum mortgage Loan to Total Value (LTV) from 80% to
70%. Banks would need to comply with the rule starting June 15th. We
believe the bulk of Indonesia real estate buyers (for our listed universe of
developers) are mainly affluent, with only a minority using mortgages,
hence the impact on marketing sales should be modest. The rule, in our
view, would only provide modest impact in the short term and hence we
see it as a buying opportunity. Long-term however, this introduces a risk
that rapid increases in ASPs may invite regulatory scrutiny. Our top pick
is SMRA.
Asean Forum 2012, Asean’s investment trinity, CLSA
You could argue that ASEAN growth and demographics have long been
overlooked in favour of China. Not this year though. CLSA’s Myanmar-Thai
nexus and Asean Arising reports paint the picture of a region buzzing
with young, cheap labour and increasing wealthy consumers. CLSA’s
Asean Forum showcased corporates from economies as divergent as
Singapore and Myanmar and industries as diverse as telecoms and
alcohol. Outlook is mixed for sure, but Asean’s long-term investment
trinity of global brands, fertile FDI and primed domestic consumption
were all well represented.
overlooked in favour of China. Not this year though. CLSA’s Myanmar-Thai
nexus and Asean Arising reports paint the picture of a region buzzing
with young, cheap labour and increasing wealthy consumers. CLSA’s
Asean Forum showcased corporates from economies as divergent as
Singapore and Myanmar and industries as diverse as telecoms and
alcohol. Outlook is mixed for sure, but Asean’s long-term investment
trinity of global brands, fertile FDI and primed domestic consumption
were all well represented.
Jumat, 16 Maret 2012
Indonesia Banks, Reserve Requirement Hike: Ample liquidity but Opportunity Cost, Citi
Bottom-line impact of 2-3% — Bank Indonesia’s (BI) intention to use higher Reserve
Requirment (RR) to combat inflation looks to reduce large banks’ profits by 2-3%
(annualized). Rate hikes on the other hand, favor large, liquid banks. The impact
assumes 300bps hike (same as in Nov 2010) with zero payment. This is the worst case
scenario as BI opted to pay 2.5% on the 300bps increase of Nov 10 (remaining 5% of
Primary Reserves @ 0%). January-end local currency deposits are Rp2319trn and, if
BI does opt for +3% @ 0%, will absorb liquidity of Rp70trn and save BI Rp2.1trn.
Requirment (RR) to combat inflation looks to reduce large banks’ profits by 2-3%
(annualized). Rate hikes on the other hand, favor large, liquid banks. The impact
assumes 300bps hike (same as in Nov 2010) with zero payment. This is the worst case
scenario as BI opted to pay 2.5% on the 300bps increase of Nov 10 (remaining 5% of
Primary Reserves @ 0%). January-end local currency deposits are Rp2319trn and, if
BI does opt for +3% @ 0%, will absorb liquidity of Rp70trn and save BI Rp2.1trn.
AsiaUSA Market strategy, Not just Chindia: Asean arising, CLSA
With 37% of its population under 20, Asean’s labor force is set to grow by
more than 56 million this decade as China’s labor force begins to fall,
setting up the region as the next low-cost manufacturing zone. Rising
disposable incomes will lift 50 million people into the middle class while
13% pa growth in discretionary spending power unleashes a wave of
consumerism. Our top ten Asean-USA picks are: Chevron, Coca-Cola,
Hess, Las Vegas Sands, Mead Johnson, National Oilwell Varco, Philip
Morris International, Starbucks, Western Digital and Yum! Brands.
more than 56 million this decade as China’s labor force begins to fall,
setting up the region as the next low-cost manufacturing zone. Rising
disposable incomes will lift 50 million people into the middle class while
13% pa growth in discretionary spending power unleashes a wave of
consumerism. Our top ten Asean-USA picks are: Chevron, Coca-Cola,
Hess, Las Vegas Sands, Mead Johnson, National Oilwell Varco, Philip
Morris International, Starbucks, Western Digital and Yum! Brands.
Saham Pilihan Jumat 16 Maret 2012
ASRI : MACD berpeluang golden cross
dan histogram mendekati area positif membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support :
S1 600
S2 580
Resisten : R1 620 R2 640
Kamis, 15 Maret 2012
BNI, Expanding capacity, CLSA
Thanks to an improvement in asset quality and strong recovery from its
written-off assets, BBNI managed to record strong net profit growth of
42% YoY in FY11. Coupled with the better asset quality trend, we expect
the bank to record higher pre-impairment profit (PPOP) this year on the
back of lower cost of funds and stronger fee based income. The bank
continues to expand aggressively in the consumer segment where it is
taking market share and building up capacity. Maintain outperform.
written-off assets, BBNI managed to record strong net profit growth of
42% YoY in FY11. Coupled with the better asset quality trend, we expect
the bank to record higher pre-impairment profit (PPOP) this year on the
back of lower cost of funds and stronger fee based income. The bank
continues to expand aggressively in the consumer segment where it is
taking market share and building up capacity. Maintain outperform.
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 15 Maret 2012
ANTM : Stochastic mulai rebound,
begitu juga dengan histogram dan MACD membuka peluang terjadinya penguatan.
Support : S1
1.850 S2 1.800
Resisten : R1 1.920 R2 1.940
Rabu, 14 Maret 2012
Indonesian Banks, Possible tightening, CLSA
Bank Indonesia is considering increasing the reserve requirement (RR)
for Indo banks in response to high inflationary pressure from the planned
fuel price hike. This is an Indonesian-specific issue as other countries in
the region are easing instead of tightening. We estimate minimal impact
from a 100 bps increase in RR for banks under CLSA coverage due to the
current excess liquidity and low yield from FASBI. Moreover, the system’s
liquidity is still abundant. We maintain our BUY call on BBRI and BBNI.
for Indo banks in response to high inflationary pressure from the planned
fuel price hike. This is an Indonesian-specific issue as other countries in
the region are easing instead of tightening. We estimate minimal impact
from a 100 bps increase in RR for banks under CLSA coverage due to the
current excess liquidity and low yield from FASBI. Moreover, the system’s
liquidity is still abundant. We maintain our BUY call on BBRI and BBNI.
Astra International , Right place, wrong time, Macquarie
· We downgrade our
recommendation to Neutral from Outperform; cut our FY12–13E estimates by 6.7%;
and reduce our PT to Rp76k from Rp80k (representing a 15x FY13E PER). Our
downgrade reflects several factors which collectively have made us sufficiently
uncomfortable with the stock’s short term risk/reward profile to downgrade. We
nevertheless remain positive on the long term story, and would look to
re-accumulate in the low 60ks.
· These factors include
the likely material impact of BI down payment (DP) limitations on 2W volumes;
the market share risk posed by Nissan’s upcoming NV200 launch; our existing
expectations (now exacerbated) for ASII’s FY12E earnings growth to slow; and
ASII’s relatively full short/medium term multiples.
·
20%
down payment limitations looking increasingly likely:
Selasa, 13 Maret 2012
United Tractors, Dominates heavy movers, CLSA
As the dominant domestic player in both the heavy-equipment and mining-contracting sectors, United Tractors (UT) will benefit from rising coal demand. Mining remains its key sales driver, while we expect the new land bill to lead to a surge in demand for construction equipment from 2013. Production is gradually rising at its new coal assets, which also provides upside. The company generates more than 25% ROE and we estimate a 67% total shareholder return over 2012-14.
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 13 Maret 2012
ASRI : Stochastic dan histogram masih
pada tren penguatan
Support : S1
580 S2 560
Resisten : R1 610 R2 640
Senin, 12 Maret 2012
Global Markets Outlook and Strategy, JP Morgan
• The economy
Our 2012 global growth forecast remains at an anaemic 2.2%, but PMIs
are suggesting mild upside risk.
• Asset Allocation
We remain long equities, EM and credit against safer assets. Of the six
drivers of the rally, two are now closer to neutral (positions and risk
perceptions), and one has gained (momentum). We analyse the impact of
high relative supply of safe assets, cash and gov’t debt, and conclude
equities and credit need to rally some 6% over the coming 12 months just
to keep pace with rising cash and gov’t debt outstanding. The portfolio
now includes hedges against oil and inflation.
Our 2012 global growth forecast remains at an anaemic 2.2%, but PMIs
are suggesting mild upside risk.
• Asset Allocation
We remain long equities, EM and credit against safer assets. Of the six
drivers of the rally, two are now closer to neutral (positions and risk
perceptions), and one has gained (momentum). We analyse the impact of
high relative supply of safe assets, cash and gov’t debt, and conclude
equities and credit need to rally some 6% over the coming 12 months just
to keep pace with rising cash and gov’t debt outstanding. The portfolio
now includes hedges against oil and inflation.
Indonesia Hard Hat, Solid 2M12 numbers, JP Morgan
Indonesia cement sales volume in 2M12 grew by 19% y/y. Indonesia
cement sales volume in 2M12 grew by 19% y/y to 8.2mn MT. February
demand looks firm, with cement sales volume of 4.1mn MT, flat m/m
and up by 24% y/y. All regions posted strong growth. Kalimantan area
showed the strongest growth, as its cement sales volume grew by 36%
y/y. Assuming no fuel subsidy removal, we view that Indonesia cement
consumption growth for FY12 would likely to be inline with our
forecast of 10% y/y growth.
cement sales volume in 2M12 grew by 19% y/y to 8.2mn MT. February
demand looks firm, with cement sales volume of 4.1mn MT, flat m/m
and up by 24% y/y. All regions posted strong growth. Kalimantan area
showed the strongest growth, as its cement sales volume grew by 36%
y/y. Assuming no fuel subsidy removal, we view that Indonesia cement
consumption growth for FY12 would likely to be inline with our
forecast of 10% y/y growth.
Asean arising, CLSA
J-curves and franchises
With nearly 40% of its population under 20, the Asean labour pool is
surging while China is facing a labour crunch and regulatory risk has
risen in India. FDI flows to the region are already surging. Buying power
is rising with the middle class projected to rise 50% and the number of
wealthy to double over five years. We identify 13 companies building a
business franchise, generating an average annual EVA® spread of 8% and
estimated to provide 70% three-year total returns.
With nearly 40% of its population under 20, the Asean labour pool is
surging while China is facing a labour crunch and regulatory risk has
risen in India. FDI flows to the region are already surging. Buying power
is rising with the middle class projected to rise 50% and the number of
wealthy to double over five years. We identify 13 companies building a
business franchise, generating an average annual EVA® spread of 8% and
estimated to provide 70% three-year total returns.
Saham Pilihan Senin, 12 Maret 2012
ASII : Melanjutkan rekomendasi kami
kemarin, MACD tepat golden cross dan histogram hijau kini berada pada area
positif mengindikasikan masih ada peluang untuk menguat.
Support : S1
69.950 S2 68.850
Resisten : R1 70.850 R2 71.750
Jumat, 09 Maret 2012
Tower Bersama, Towering Along, CLSA
TBIG’s 2011 results were solid with Core NPAT 13% better than our
expectations. While TBIG’s inorganic deal-making grabs the headlines –
the organic operational momentum should not be underestimated. TBIG
added 2,300 new tenancies in 2011 providing a strong platform for 2012
in addition to a strong pipeline of new builds. Finalisation of the ISAT
transaction is the game-changing growth driver. Factoring the deal into
our model we upgrade our target price to 3,850 implying 40% upside.
expectations. While TBIG’s inorganic deal-making grabs the headlines –
the organic operational momentum should not be underestimated. TBIG
added 2,300 new tenancies in 2011 providing a strong platform for 2012
in addition to a strong pipeline of new builds. Finalisation of the ISAT
transaction is the game-changing growth driver. Factoring the deal into
our model we upgrade our target price to 3,850 implying 40% upside.
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 9 Maret 2012
CPIN : Melanjutkan rekomendasi kami
kemarin, CPIN berpeluang melanjutkan penguatan dimana stochastic golden cross
dan MACD juga mulai rebound.
Support : S1 2.650
S2 2.575
Resisten : R1 2.750 R2 2.875
Kamis, 08 Maret 2012
Semen Gresik, New plant nearly completed, Danareksa
Counting down
The new Tuban IV production facility is expected to commence trial operation in March 2012.
The project has been slightly delayed from December 2011, but with capex slightly below budget.
In the first two months, the new plant is expected to run at a 50-60% utilization rate and then
to gradually increase to 80-85% in May 2012 and the following months. This will increase Semen
Gresik’s production by 1.3-1.4 mn tonnes. In the first year, the new plant can be expected to run
at an average 70% utilization rate. The Tonasa plant, meanwhile, is being delayed to July 2012
with the power plant to be completed in October 2012. The capex for Tonasa will increase slightly
due to this delay from IDC, translating to Rp20-40bn. All in all, we expect additional capacity of
about 2.1mn tonnes in FY12 from these two new plants.
The new Tuban IV production facility is expected to commence trial operation in March 2012.
The project has been slightly delayed from December 2011, but with capex slightly below budget.
In the first two months, the new plant is expected to run at a 50-60% utilization rate and then
to gradually increase to 80-85% in May 2012 and the following months. This will increase Semen
Gresik’s production by 1.3-1.4 mn tonnes. In the first year, the new plant can be expected to run
at an average 70% utilization rate. The Tonasa plant, meanwhile, is being delayed to July 2012
with the power plant to be completed in October 2012. The capex for Tonasa will increase slightly
due to this delay from IDC, translating to Rp20-40bn. All in all, we expect additional capacity of
about 2.1mn tonnes in FY12 from these two new plants.
Tower Bersama, FY11 results show a strong growth trajectory, though not quite as strong as we had forecast, Credit Suisse
● TBIG’s revenue grew 44.5% YoY for FY11 as a whole. EBITDA
rose 48.9% YoY and net profit grew 45.2% YoY. Even though this
represents a high growth rate, the result was less strong than we
had anticipated, and TBIG missed our FY11 revenue, EBITDA
and net profit forecasts by 20.9%, 22.0% and 33.4%, respectively.
● The FY11 figures flow through our model, and we have revised
down our FY12 and FY13 revenue forecasts by 7.3% and 4.9%,
respectively. Our EPS forecasts for FY12 and FY13 have been
revised down by 10.7% and 8.1%, respectively.
● On the other hand, we are still believers in the long-term growth
trajectory of TBIG. Indeed, we expect TBIG to report a doubling of
net profit into FY12 and 29.2% net profit growth into FY13.
● Our DFC-based target price has therefore only been revised down
by 3.4%, from Rp2,900 to Rp2,800. With only 1.8% upside from
current levels we believe TBIG is relatively fairly priced, and we
maintain our NEUTRAL rating relative to the JCI.
rose 48.9% YoY and net profit grew 45.2% YoY. Even though this
represents a high growth rate, the result was less strong than we
had anticipated, and TBIG missed our FY11 revenue, EBITDA
and net profit forecasts by 20.9%, 22.0% and 33.4%, respectively.
● The FY11 figures flow through our model, and we have revised
down our FY12 and FY13 revenue forecasts by 7.3% and 4.9%,
respectively. Our EPS forecasts for FY12 and FY13 have been
revised down by 10.7% and 8.1%, respectively.
● On the other hand, we are still believers in the long-term growth
trajectory of TBIG. Indeed, we expect TBIG to report a doubling of
net profit into FY12 and 29.2% net profit growth into FY13.
● Our DFC-based target price has therefore only been revised down
by 3.4%, from Rp2,900 to Rp2,800. With only 1.8% upside from
current levels we believe TBIG is relatively fairly priced, and we
maintain our NEUTRAL rating relative to the JCI.
Sector outlook, Mining, Resource Nationalism, CLSA
Indonesia has released a Presidential Instruction restricting foreign ownership of mining concessions after 10 years of production to 49%. The rule only affects new generation mining concessions (IUPs) which are governed by the 2009 mining law. It does not affect holders of Contracts of Work which were issued up until 2000 and is not retroactive. We see limited potential impact on existing miners under our coverage including ITMG which is 65% owned by Banpu.
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 8 Maret 2012
CPIN : Terbentuk pola morning doji star
yang mengindikasikan pola penguatan
Support : S1
2.525 S2 2.450
Resisten : R1 2.725 R2 2.875
Rabu, 07 Maret 2012
Kalbe Farma, Management revised its guidance upwards—numbers in line with our estimates, Credit Suisse
● Kalbe’s management has revised its 2012 guidance: it now
expects operating margins of 16.0-16.5% and earnings growth of
10-15% YoY, on the back of 18-20% revenue growth YoY.
Previously, during an analyst meeting in mid-Feb, management
had guided for 15-20% YoY revenue growth for 2012, with
operating margins of 15-16% and earnings growth of 5-10% YoY.
● Management said that the upward revisions were based on the
encouraging results in the first two months of this year, while it is
optimistic about price increases in 1H12. Management also sees
an improving trend for the newly launched products.
● Our forecasts are in line with management guidance. We expect
19% YoY revenue growth in 2012, with operating margins of
16.2% and net profit growth of 8% YoY.
● Our DCF-based target price of Rp3,100 implies 19.9x 2012E P/E,
with 27% estimated earnings growth over the next two years. The
stock has underperformed the JCI: it has only gained 2% YTD,
while the JCI has gained 4%. We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating.
expects operating margins of 16.0-16.5% and earnings growth of
10-15% YoY, on the back of 18-20% revenue growth YoY.
Previously, during an analyst meeting in mid-Feb, management
had guided for 15-20% YoY revenue growth for 2012, with
operating margins of 15-16% and earnings growth of 5-10% YoY.
● Management said that the upward revisions were based on the
encouraging results in the first two months of this year, while it is
optimistic about price increases in 1H12. Management also sees
an improving trend for the newly launched products.
● Our forecasts are in line with management guidance. We expect
19% YoY revenue growth in 2012, with operating margins of
16.2% and net profit growth of 8% YoY.
● Our DCF-based target price of Rp3,100 implies 19.9x 2012E P/E,
with 27% estimated earnings growth over the next two years. The
stock has underperformed the JCI: it has only gained 2% YTD,
while the JCI has gained 4%. We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating.
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk, Strong FY11A earnings, Credit Suisse
● PTBA reported strong net profit growth in FY11 of 54% YoY to
Rp3,085 bn. However, this is 5% below our expectation and 8%
below consensus due to higher-than-expected in COGS and G&A
expenses.
● Sales revenue was Rp10.6 tn, up 34% YoY, on higher sales volume
and ASP, just 2% below our expectation. Coal sales volume was
13.5 mn tonnes in FY11, up 4%, in line with expectations. The
average selling price was up 33% to US$89/t in FY11.
● The company was able to grow output at a six-year CAGR of
6.3%, despite railway transportation constraints, suggesting that
the state-owned railway company, is improving capacity. The
target is to increase the existing railway capacity to 22.7 mn tpa
by 2014. The new railway is projected to start operations in 2015.
● We retain OUTPERFORM on PTBA with a target price of Rp25,000,
based on a 40% premium to the average sector P/E of 8.4x, for its
significant reserves number. We believe it will continue its volume
growth by improving the existing railway capacity.
Rp3,085 bn. However, this is 5% below our expectation and 8%
below consensus due to higher-than-expected in COGS and G&A
expenses.
● Sales revenue was Rp10.6 tn, up 34% YoY, on higher sales volume
and ASP, just 2% below our expectation. Coal sales volume was
13.5 mn tonnes in FY11, up 4%, in line with expectations. The
average selling price was up 33% to US$89/t in FY11.
● The company was able to grow output at a six-year CAGR of
6.3%, despite railway transportation constraints, suggesting that
the state-owned railway company, is improving capacity. The
target is to increase the existing railway capacity to 22.7 mn tpa
by 2014. The new railway is projected to start operations in 2015.
● We retain OUTPERFORM on PTBA with a target price of Rp25,000,
based on a 40% premium to the average sector P/E of 8.4x, for its
significant reserves number. We believe it will continue its volume
growth by improving the existing railway capacity.
Selasa, 06 Maret 2012
BRI, Focusing on loan quality, CLSA
BBRI reported strong net profit growth of 31.5% YoY for FY11, 10%
above consensus estimates, thanks to low impairment expenses and high
recovery from written off assets. The bank claimed to be in consolidation
period last year causing its loans growth (17% YoY) to be below the
industry’s 25% YoY. We are projecting higher pre-impairment profit this
year on the back of higher loan growth and further improvement in asset
quality. We upgrade our 2012CL by 10.5% and maintained our TP at
Rp8,500/share. BUY.
above consensus estimates, thanks to low impairment expenses and high
recovery from written off assets. The bank claimed to be in consolidation
period last year causing its loans growth (17% YoY) to be below the
industry’s 25% YoY. We are projecting higher pre-impairment profit this
year on the back of higher loan growth and further improvement in asset
quality. We upgrade our 2012CL by 10.5% and maintained our TP at
Rp8,500/share. BUY.
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