ITMG, Solid delivery, CLSA

ITM’s FY11 earnings were 11% ahead of our estimates and 14% of
consensus. ITM continues to provide the highest earnings visibility of the
Indonesian coal producers, completing a hedge program to lock in 2012
earnings. We adjust 12CL earnings by -5% to reflect the hedged coal and
oil volumes. A reserve upgrade combined with benchmark coal price
strength means the stock should trade at mid-cycle multiples and we
raise our target price to Rp,49,000/sh. Stock remains our top sector pick.

Astra Intl, Regulatory pains, CLSA

Looming regulatory risks have caused market concern on Astra’s future
earnings despite a sterling FY11 result. Our worst case scenario points to
a 15% downside risk to its earnings due to these risks. However, our
best case scenario points to a 21% upside. We also believe Astra can
maintain its dominance; it is an incumbent play, but still an aggressive
one. Future upside to come if demand unleashes on auto and as UT’s
business expansion unfolds. O-PF, at 13.5x PE12 and 11.8x PE13.

Astra International, Sell into strength, Credit Suisse

● ASII’s 4Q11A earnings were up by 9% YoY, down 10% QoQ, with
FY11A net income up 24% YoY (3% ahead of consensus and 3%
below our expectations).
● ASII’s auto and agri divisions’ FY11A earnings came 2.8% and
6.8% below our expectations, supported largely by heavy
equipment (UNTR). ASII’s FY11A results provide further evidence
indicating that much of its performance has been attributed from
UNTR. Net net, we tweak up FY12E earnings forecasts by 1%
and FY13E earnings forecasts down by 1%.
● We see the risk of technical rebound as: (1) ASII’s share price has
dropped 7.2% YTD, 13.5% from YTD peak and underperformed
JCI by 8.1%YTD, (2) ASII is looking to do 1:10 stock split.
● We prefer to wait for potential further share price correction
particularly given potential fuel price hike, which we believe will
offer better entry points. We maintain our target price of
Rp65,890, based on SOTP, implying 14x 12E P/E.

Astra International (ASII.JK), No Surprises on 4Q Results, Citi

What stood out in the numbers? Pretty much in line — Astra’s full-year 2011 net
profit reached Rp17.8trn, up 24% YoY, 3% above ours and full-year consensus
respectively. 4Q11 net income reached Rp4.3trn, down 10% QoQ but up 8% YoY
mainly due to the Financial Service divisions and UNTR (down 17% and 14% QoQ)
coupled with the impact of the Thai floods that caused 4W volume to fall 10% QoQ.
Equity income from subsidiaries took a hit in 4Q (down 14% QoQ due to the Thai flood
impact) as contributions from Toyota Astra, Daihatsu and Isuzu declined by 18%, 15%
and 21% QoQ respectively (see figures 5-7 for a detailed breakdown).

COMPANY ALERT, Jasa Marga, Inflation hedge, Deutsche Bank

Higher inflation following fuel price hike
The government plans to increase fuel price from 1st April 2012 (subject to
Parliament's approval) in order to prevent the budget deficit from exceeding
the maximum threshold 3% of GDP (prescribed by the law) following global
oil price rise to >US$120/bbn. Based on Bank of Indonesia (BI)'s analysis,
they estimate that inflation could reach 7% post the fuel price hike with
base case assumption of Rp1,500 (+33%) increase in fuel price.

Saham Pilihan Selasa, 28 Februari 2012

UNVR : Terbentuk pola hammer didukung stochastic yang godlen cross dan histogram yang menghijau membuka peluang terjadi penguatan.

Support    : S1  18.500      S2  17.750

Resisten   : R1  19.050      R2  19.500

Rekomendasi : Buy

United Tractors, Good performance, CLSA

UT reported a solid FY11 result where revenue and net profit rose 48%
and 52% YoY, respectively, beating consensus estimate by 7%. UT is a
direct beneficiary of growing demand for coal given its dominance in both
heavy equipment and mining contracting business. The upside comes
from continuing strong demand for mining equipment, potential boom in
demand for construction equipment as more infra gets developed, and an
increase in production of its coal assets. BUY.

Bakrie Telecom, New business units will help revenue grow, but Bakrie Telecom still loss-making and highly geared, Credit Suisse

● In an environment of rising price points in Indonesia, Bakrie
Telecom has also raised tariffs, with the standard price for on-net
calls in doubling from Rp1/second to Rp2/second. We therefore
expect a revenue bounce (circa 6.0% QoQ) into 4Q11.
● On the other hand, 9M11 revenue figures were very weak, and so
we have revised down our FY11 revenue and EBITDA forecasts
by 14.5% and 20.1%, respectively. The projected FY11 net loss
per share expands five-fold.

Saham Pilihan Senin, 27 Februari 2012

AALI : Minat jual terlihat masih cukup tinggi, namun tekana diperkirakan akan terbatas terlihat dari stochastic yang mulai menyentuh area oversold.

Support    : S1  21.100    S2  20.500

Resisten   : R1  21.750    R2  22.050

Rekomendasi : Buy on Weakness

Indo Strategy 240212, Taking a breather for now, CLSA

Early on in 2012 Indonesia finds itself in the unusual position as a laggard
to regional indices. While some of this underperformance is rotational, a
number of regulatory overhangs, a polarising central bank and renewed
inflation risk has weighed on the index and provided an excuse for profittaking.
Yet the renaissance in investment and FDI continues unabated.
We recommend being overweight the ‘supply side’ of the Indonesian
economy: cement, property/industrial land and infrastructure.

Indonesia Strategy, Fuel Price Hike? Positive for Equity, Negative for Bond Markets, Citi

 The government may increase the subsidized fuel price; Every Rp1,000/litre will
save Rp38trn ($4.5bn) in government’s budget — The Energy and Mineral Minister
said that the government is considering raising the price of subsidized fuel (for
everyone including 2W and public transportation) by up to Rp1,500/litre from Rp4,500
to Rp6,000/litre. The earlier plan to prohibit subsidized fuel consumption by private car
users appears to have been sidelined, but the decision to increase fuel prices will
require parliamentary approval (while the approval for rationing was already at hand).

Saham Pilihan Jumat, 24 Februari 2012

ENRG : MACD berpeluang golden cross didukung oleh histogram yang cukup prospektif dengan volume yang terus meningkat membuka peluang penguatan lanjutan.

Support    : S1  191    S2  185

Resisten   : R1  196    R2  205

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy

United Tractors (UNTR.JK) Alert: Weak January Komatsu Sales But Not Alarming, Citi

United Tractors (UNTR.JK)

Alert: Weak January Komatsu Sales But Not Alarming

 Weak start for heavy equipment sales but management maintains guidance —

Komatsu sales fell 15.6% Y-Y (+0.7% M-M) in January to 617 units. The company

attributed the surprising drop to customers’ requests for postponement of their order

deliveries due to heavier-than-normal rainfall in January. We construe the drop as

delayed deliveries and expect a substantial rebound in the next couple of months.

We remain comfortable with our 13% Y-Y sales growth in 2012E to 9,560 units.

Management also maintains its 10-15% growth guidance for 2012.

CLSA INDO update: ITMG FY11 Result 11% ahead of CLSA on strong ASP, hedging gain

Stock: Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)

Market cap, T/O: US$5.4b, US$2.5m

Rec, TP: BUY, Rp46,000/sh

Event: FY11 result released, 11% ahead of 11CL, 14% ahead of consensus estimates

Our resources analyst Jayden’s comments below.

·         ITM (the 3^rd largest coal miner by market cap listed in Indonesia) released audited accounts after market close today.

·         The earnings result is 14% ahead of consensus and 11% ahead of CL estimates.

·         Production was in line with guidance at 24.7mt for the full year, however a strong 4Q11 ASP led to revenues ahead of our and consensus expectations.

Saham Pilihan Kamis, 23 Februari 2012

PNLF : Muncul pola hammer pada candle stick didukung oleh reboundnya stochastic dan menghijaunya histogram membuka peluang terjadinya penguatan.

Support    : S1  135    S2  129

Resisten   : R1  149    R2  159

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy

Jasa Marga, Only the Begining. CLSA

Jasa Marga is in the best position for infra boom in the future with the
potential implementation of the land bill. The company just signed a MoU
to be the sole operator for Trans Sumatra network, and may also get
three new toll road projects in North-East JORR2. We also highlighted
the power of connectivity which will boost IRRs of projects and our DCFvaluation
to Rp7,900/sh. Resilient traffic, future expansion, better cost
management and strong positioning remain its key success factors

Saham Pilihan Rabu, 22 Februari 2012

INCO : Terbentuk pola reversal keatas yang berpotensi untuk berlanjut didukung oleh Stochastic, histogram, dan MACD yang mulai rebound.

Support    : S1  3.550    S2  3.425

Resisten   : R1  3.825    R2  4.050

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy

Indika Energy, Craving Consolidation, CLSA

Energy investment house, Indika Energy, will finally achieve its long held
dream of consolidating a producing coal asset at the top line. The group is
wasting no time deploying cash raised from the 29% sell down of mining
contractor Petrosea buying an 85% stake in privately held Multi
Tambangjaya Utama at what we believe is fair value. The group continues
to look attractive on a sum-of-the-parts basis and downside share price
risk is looks limited at 7x PE. Retain BUY with target price Rp3,450.

Saham Pilihan Selasa, 21 Februari 2012

INDY : Muncul indicator bullish parabolic sar diikuti oleh golden crossnya MACD dan positifnya histogram mengindikasikan berlanjutnya tren penguatan.

Support    : S1  2.475    S2  2.400

Resisten   : R1  2.600    R2  2.750

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy

Indonesia banks Sector, Strongest to prevail, Credit Suisse

Weak sentiment, good timing. Currently, the sentiment on Indonesian bank

stocks appears soft—even for the large banks. Large banks’ variable rate

marketable security holdings during the current low government bond yield

environment suggest that 1Q12 results may be weak. For large banks, we

expect their 2H12 earnings to be stronger than 1H12’s, as we believe current

government bond yields may not be sustainable given: (1) inflation may have

troughed and (2) the current level of government bond yields reflects the

abnormal, yet temporary, demand after Indonesia was upgraded to investment

grade. Thus, we advise long-term investors to accumulate large banks.

Indonesian Bank, A Conversation with BI, CLSA

Given the regulatory issues currently overshadowing the Indonesian
banks, we held a conference call with the central bank (BI) to get more
color. Our conversation with Dr. Perry, a BI Director, confirmed that BI is
not targeting to lower NIM or profitability of banks. BI expects banks to
lower their lending rates in response to BI rate cuts. We are maintaining
our view on Indo banks and reiterate our Buy call on BBRI due to its high
NIM and ROAE.

Saham Pilihan Senin, 20 Februari 2012

BWPT : Muncul kembali indicator bullish parabolic sar diikuti oleh golden crossnya stochastic dan positifnya histogram mengindikasikan berlanjutnya tren penguatan.

Support    : S1  1.420    S2  1.380

Resisten   : R1  1.480    R2  1.540

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy

Indonesia Fast Fashion Frenzy, CLSA

Fast fashion‟s popularity has been growing rapidly over the last 7 years.
Favourable demographics make Indonesia a lucrative market for fast
fashion retailers. Zara, locally held by Mitra Adi Perkasa (MAPI), is
currently the only one of the top three players to have entered Indonesia.
The potential arrival of H&M and Uniqlo in Indonesia may pose a threat
for Zara. We nonetheless maintain our BUY call on MAPI for its expansion
capability. Media companies will also benefit from increased competition.

Jasa Marga, Implementing regulation could be out soon, Deutsche Bank

Implementing regulation could be out soon
The implementing regulation draft on new land law was submitted to the
State Secretary last week. It is currently under review before being submitted
to the President for approval. Overall, we believe there is a high
probability that this regulation could be out soon (even in this month).

Saham Pilihan Jumat, 17 Februari 2012

SMRA : Muncul indicator bullish parabolic sar diikuti oleh golden crossnya MACD and positifnya histogram mengindikasikan dapat berlanjutnya penguatan.

Support    : S1  1.190    S2  1.130

Resisten   : R1  1.270    R2  1.300

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy

Bank Danamon, Auto Margin Crunch, CLSA

BDMN’s FY11 results were in line with our and consensus expectations. In
our view, the issues for the bank remain the same: (1) lower yields from
car/motor financing unit Adira Finance (ADMF) due to competition and a
change in portfolio mix, (2) high cost of funds due to high LDR and weak
funding franchise and (3) an un-exploited mass market segment. BDMN
has an opportunity to regain its strong position in the wet market
segment thus reducing its reliance on vehicle loans while improving its
margins. We maintain our underperform call on the counter.

Astra International, A new MPV rival is coming, Credit Suisse

● Suzuki Indonesia just launched Suzuki Ertiga on 10 February
2012, which we believe could be the new rival for Toyota Avanza
and Daihatsu Xenia (both owned by Astra), as it is targeting the
same market segment.
● Indonesia’s first-time car buyers are very brand cautious, and given
Toyota’s biggest market share in the country (34% market share),
we believe Astra will continue to lead the four-wheeler market.
● However, the entry of Suzuki represents additional competition in
Indonesia’s four-wheeler market, which may not be favourable for
Astra’s share price, particularly considering the high expectation
currently implied in Astra’s premium valuation.
● Astra’s auto division is currently valued at a demanding 62%
premium to the Indonesian market. We maintain our
UNDERPERFORM rating on Astra and target price of Rp65,890,
implying 13.9x FY12E P/E, in line with our index target marketimplied
P/E.

Saham Pilihan Kamis, 16 Februari 2012

LPCK : Muncul indicator bullish parabolic sar diikuti oleh golden crossnya MACD and positifnya histogram mengindikasikan dapat berlanjutnya penguatan.

Support    : S1  1.930    S2  1.850

Resisten   : R1  2.025    R2  2.075

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy

Surya Semesta, Winning combination, CLSA

As an industrial estate developer, Surya Semesta (SSIA IJ) is in the right
spot to capture the boom in industrial land demand. The company is
targeting to sell 135ha in FY12, in which 120ha sales has been secured.
Surging prices in industrial land will see profit margins widen on SSIA’s
property segment. Construction remains as SSIA’s backbone providing
stable income, while hospitality business acts further potential growth
driver.

Delta Dunia Makmur, The Tide is Coming, Mandiri Sekuritas

For almost 2 years DOID stock has been battered badly due to a lot of
disappointment and misunderstanding on its bottom line following the
internal restructuring and reorganization process. Consensus has been
downgrading DOID earnings and target price. We foresee potential rerating
on the stock as new IPOs are looming, supported by pricing power in the
industry which mostly OB rate now happened at US$2.5/bcm or about 25%
increase on average. We reiterate our Buy rating on DOID with lower TP based
on EV/EBITDA target of 6x at Rp1,000/share vs its fair value of Rp1,250/share.

Saham Pilihan Rabu, 15 Februari 2012

INTP : Muncul indicator bullish parabolic sar diikuti oleh golden crossnya MACD and positifnya histogram mengindikasikan dapat berlanjutnya penguatan.

Support    : S1  17.400    S2  16.950

Resisten   : R1  18.000    R2  18.400

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy

Tower Bersama, Tower Grab, CLSA

The TBIG/ISAT tower deal is attractive with interests aligned and a major
boost for the company‟s growth trajectory. The US$406m acquisition
price (US$162k/tower) implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x and a day-1
ROIC of 9% comfortably covers the cost of capital. However the material
value creation will occur on ramping up the current 1.3 tenancy ratio on
these new towers to 2.0 or above. Our modelling of the deal shows there
is a further 20% upside to our current DCF valuation. TBIG is one of the
best ways to play the lower cost capital thematic in Indonesia. BUY.

INDONESIA BOP - Capital concerns despite high FDI, CLSA

Indonesia’s 4Q11 BOP data provide some
reassurance of rupiah exchange rate support after
Bank Indonesia’s rate cut last week, specifically from
high and rising FDI inflows. However, offsetting
outflows on the capital account along with a deficit
on the current account in 4Q11 reinforce our view,
and that of many investors, that BI should be treading
a more cautious monetary path.

Regional Plantations , Clouds on the horizon, Macquarie

The fundamentals of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) held up relatively well through 4Q11

and 1Q12, as we had expected. However, an elevated macro risk environment

kept most investors away from plantation stocks for the better part of last year.

With these risks receding somewhat, we have finally seen equity prices catch up

with the fundamentals of the commodity. In the past three months, plantation

stocks have risen on average by 14% vs. a 2% rise in the commodity. From here

on, individual company prospects, rather than the commodity price, are likely to

drive differential stock performance in our view.

Saham Pilihan Selasa, 14 Februari 2012

SMCB : Muncul indicator bullish parabolic sar diikuti oleh golden crossnya MACD and positifnya histogram mengindikasikan dapat berlanjutnya penguatan.

Support    : S1  2.325    S2  2.250

Resisten   : R1  2.400    R2  2.475

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy

Indonesian Coal Sector Outlook, CLSA

Mean Reversion
Our Indonesian thermal coal universe is up 11% year to date as investors
have moved firmly back to risk on and have rerated cyclical equities.
Following recent share price strength, we replace PTBA with Harum as
our second choice behind defensively positioned ITM. Retain neutral
weighting as the sector remains the most exposed in Indonesia to
investor sentiment on global macro events.

Bukit Asam, One Track Mine, CLSA

We attended a site visit to South Sumatra last week visiting PTBA’s mine,
river port and rail infrastructure. PTBA is one of the lowest cost producers
in Indonesia with a highly mechanised operation and low mining strip
ratio. The stock has been an early outperformer in 2012 up 21% ytd. We
raise our target price to Rp23,500/sh following a re-rating of cyclical
equities. We retain our Outperform call but as the stock now only offers
12% upside to our fair value would prefer to buy on any weakness.
Mechanised mining

Indonesia Equity Strategy, FY2011 Earnings Preview, JP Morgan

Our analysis suggests that 4QFY11E Net profits for the JP Morgan
Universe grew at about 10% y/y, and 4% q/q. In aggregate these numbers
are in line with consensus. Compared to previous quarters, we note a
higher proportion of stocks with earnings seen coming in below consensus.
However these are concentrated in the resources space. In contrast we
anticipate property sector earnings coming ahead of the street, along with
autos and industrials.
! Earnings Estimate Overview: We forecast an overall growth of 4% q/q
and 10% y/y for total net profits of Rp32.6tr (excluding BRMS and
BULL). Our numbers are within 2% of consensus in aggregate.

Indonesia Market Strategy, Flirting with inflation is not good for consumer names, Credit Suisse

● We concur with our economics team view that the recent 25 bp
cut in policy rate may lead to higher price expectations and thus
inflation may have troughed.
● With the exception of the post-2008 global financial crisis, when
the world was coming out of deflation fears, we find the uptrend in
inflation has been unfavourable for Indonesian consumer names.

Saham Pilihan Senin, 13 Februari 2012

ASII : Harga sudah jatuh memasuki area oversold dengan indicator stochastic mulai mengindikasikan pola reversal keatas.

Support    : S1  70.900    S2  68.700

Resisten   : R1  72.550    R2  74.300

Rekomendasi : Buy on Wekness

CLSA ON THE ROAD, Modern stores war continues

As Indonesia’s middle class expands rapidly, they are willing
spend more to avoid muddy floor or other inconveniences when
shopping. Thousands of wet markets are disappearing as a
result from the transition. Take Benhil for example, the street
is only 1.4 km long road but packed with a traditional market,
at least four mini markets and three convenience stores. During
our visit, we saw heavy traffic at Seven Eleven and Indomaret
behind CLSA office.

INDONESIA RATE CUT – Very aggressive, CLSA

Bank Indonesia cut its policy rate by 25bp to
5.75%.This was an aggressive move since it
was combined with a 25bp cut in the floor of
the interest rate corridor. Bank Indonesia has
effectively cut rates by 150bp over the last four
to five months.
BI cut the policy rate by 75bp in 4Q11 to 6%. It
then cut the overnight deposit facility (Fasbi
rate) by 50bp to 4%. This is the floor of the
interest rate corridor, with the roof represented
by the overnight lending facility at 6.75%.

Indonesia Real Estate Property, price leaders, JP Morgan

Indonesia Real Estate Property, price leaders

We had meetings with several real estate firms and identified Alam
Sutera and Summarecon Agung as price leaders, due to their brands,
good location and access (and hence higher pricing power, as their real
estate tends to be the first choice of middle-upper-income buyers). We
think price leaders should trade at a lower discount to NAV than peers,
as they are price makers and should therefore have more stable
marketing sales during a downturn in the economy.

Indonesian strategy, Not so surprising rate cut, Macquarie

Indonesian strategy

Not so surprising rate cut

Event

§ Bank Indonesia (BI) decided to cut its BI rate today by 25bps to 5.75%

vs. consensus expectations of no rate cut. The signal for further easing was

provided last month on 17 January when BI decided to bring down the lower

band of the interest rate corridor by 50bps. The primary reason for the current

rate cut is to provide additional stimulus for the domestic economy given the

slowdown in the global economy.

Impact

§ More liquidity to the system. The overnight interbank rate will decline to

~3.75% (5.75% less 200bp) from its previous 4.0%, further boosting domestic

liquidity. The lower BI rate should pave the way for further cuts in the deposit

rate, benefitting banks with greater reliance on more interest-sensitive time

deposits such as Danamon, BTPN, and BJBR. On the other hand, banks with

low LDR and excess liquidity such as BCA could face some short-term NIM

compression. Our top picks in the banking sector are BRI and BJBR.

Saham Pilihan Jumat, 10 Februari 2012

 

BISI : Minat beli melonjak cukup signifikan membentuk pola bullish parabolic sar, MACD yang golden cross dan histogram positif membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan menembus resisten 990.

Support    : S1  960    S2   930

Resisten   : R1  990    R2   1.030

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy 

Indonesian bank, Sector Outook, CLSA

Manageable risk
Regulatory risks have overshadowed the Indonesian banks. While Bank
Indonesia (BI) has discussed measures on normalizing spreads, we
believe implementation will be challenging. During our talks with BI, it
became clear that their goal is to create higher efficiency in the banking
system. Intensive discussions between BI and banks are being carried
out and we expect banks to have time and room to maintain profitability.
We maintain our view that contraction in margins will be minimal and
reiterate our BUY call on BBRI.

Bank Mandiri (Persero) (BMRI.JK), Bond Yield and Key Takeaways from Analyst Day, Citi

Bank Mandiri (Persero) (BMRI.JK)
Bond Yields and Key Takeaways from Analyst Day
 3M yields at record low — In today’s auction, 3M Tbill yields declined to a record low
of 1.69% (prev. 1.92%). Against our base case of 4% for 2012, a sustained low yield
could impact earnings by 10%. If bond yields remain low, they could overshadow the
progress made by the bank in building and expanding its business.

Saham Pilihan Kamis, 9 Februari 2012

UNTR : Minat beli meningkat membuat pola reversal pada MACD dan stochastic yang mengindikasikan potensi berlanjutnya penguatan.

Support    : S1  28.550    S2   27.350

Resisten   : R1  29.900    R2   30.500

Rekomendasi : Trading Buy