Counting down
The new Tuban IV production facility is expected to commence trial operation in March 2012.
The project has been slightly delayed from December 2011, but with capex slightly below budget.
In the first two months, the new plant is expected to run at a 50-60% utilization rate and then
to gradually increase to 80-85% in May 2012 and the following months. This will increase Semen
Gresik’s production by 1.3-1.4 mn tonnes. In the first year, the new plant can be expected to run
at an average 70% utilization rate. The Tonasa plant, meanwhile, is being delayed to July 2012
with the power plant to be completed in October 2012. The capex for Tonasa will increase slightly
due to this delay from IDC, translating to Rp20-40bn. All in all, we expect additional capacity of
about 2.1mn tonnes in FY12 from these two new plants.
Kamis, 08 Maret 2012
Tower Bersama, FY11 results show a strong growth trajectory, though not quite as strong as we had forecast, Credit Suisse
● TBIG’s revenue grew 44.5% YoY for FY11 as a whole. EBITDA
rose 48.9% YoY and net profit grew 45.2% YoY. Even though this
represents a high growth rate, the result was less strong than we
had anticipated, and TBIG missed our FY11 revenue, EBITDA
and net profit forecasts by 20.9%, 22.0% and 33.4%, respectively.
● The FY11 figures flow through our model, and we have revised
down our FY12 and FY13 revenue forecasts by 7.3% and 4.9%,
respectively. Our EPS forecasts for FY12 and FY13 have been
revised down by 10.7% and 8.1%, respectively.
● On the other hand, we are still believers in the long-term growth
trajectory of TBIG. Indeed, we expect TBIG to report a doubling of
net profit into FY12 and 29.2% net profit growth into FY13.
● Our DFC-based target price has therefore only been revised down
by 3.4%, from Rp2,900 to Rp2,800. With only 1.8% upside from
current levels we believe TBIG is relatively fairly priced, and we
maintain our NEUTRAL rating relative to the JCI.
rose 48.9% YoY and net profit grew 45.2% YoY. Even though this
represents a high growth rate, the result was less strong than we
had anticipated, and TBIG missed our FY11 revenue, EBITDA
and net profit forecasts by 20.9%, 22.0% and 33.4%, respectively.
● The FY11 figures flow through our model, and we have revised
down our FY12 and FY13 revenue forecasts by 7.3% and 4.9%,
respectively. Our EPS forecasts for FY12 and FY13 have been
revised down by 10.7% and 8.1%, respectively.
● On the other hand, we are still believers in the long-term growth
trajectory of TBIG. Indeed, we expect TBIG to report a doubling of
net profit into FY12 and 29.2% net profit growth into FY13.
● Our DFC-based target price has therefore only been revised down
by 3.4%, from Rp2,900 to Rp2,800. With only 1.8% upside from
current levels we believe TBIG is relatively fairly priced, and we
maintain our NEUTRAL rating relative to the JCI.
Sector outlook, Mining, Resource Nationalism, CLSA
Indonesia has released a Presidential Instruction restricting foreign ownership of mining concessions after 10 years of production to 49%. The rule only affects new generation mining concessions (IUPs) which are governed by the 2009 mining law. It does not affect holders of Contracts of Work which were issued up until 2000 and is not retroactive. We see limited potential impact on existing miners under our coverage including ITMG which is 65% owned by Banpu.
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 8 Maret 2012
CPIN : Terbentuk pola morning doji star
yang mengindikasikan pola penguatan
Support : S1
2.525 S2 2.450
Resisten : R1 2.725 R2 2.875
Langganan:
Postingan (Atom)