Senin, 11 Juni 2012

Ciputra Surya, Time for day in the sun, CLSA

Ciputra Surya (CTRS IJ) continued to record robust marketing sales
achieving 41.3% of FY12 target as of April 2012 number. Despite strong
performance of many successful launches in untapped regions, Surabaya
residential and commercial projects remains as CTRS’ backbone with
56.3% marketing sales contribution. Toll road expansion in Greater
Surabaya provides more connectivity and serves as further catalyst for
property price appreciation. We initiate coverage on CTRS with TP of
Rp2,500/sh, implying 40% discount to our estimated NAV. BUY.

Bakrieland, Excess Baggage, CLSA

ELTY posted net loss of Rp19bn (US$2m) in FY11, mainly due to high
operational expenses and interest expenses relating to its toll road
business under its subsidiary, Bakrie Toll Road (BTR). ELTY targets lower
marketing sales this year with launches from its residential and
commercial projects. ELTY has planned to spin-off BTR since last year, but
it hasn’t able to pull it off. Only 1 out of 4 toll road projects under BTR is
operational, and the average daily traffic of 11k vehicle is still way below
management expectation due. We downgrade ELTY to U-PF with TP:
Rp85/share.

Indo Property, Sector Outlook, High Beta Play, CLSA

Property sales are still going strong, but sector has been under pressure.
As real asset, property is inflation-hedge, but stocks are high beta play,
correlated to interest rate movement. Rising policy risk may deter future
FDI but consumption growth story remains the alluring factor. We are
cautious on currency and its implication, but maintain positive view for
long term. Sector has become more investable due to growing size, and
now cheaper due to recent correction. Top picks: BSDE and CTRS.

Summarecon, Raising Value, CLSA

We raised our NAV estimate for SMRA to Rp2,000/sh on the back of
additional land bank in Serpong and Bekasi. We also raised our profit
forecasts for FY12/13 by 7.5% to reflect lower operating expenses.
SMRA is ramping up its Bekasi development, with ASP at Rp4m psm when
flyover is completed; closing the gap with Serpong’s ASP of Rp4.5m psm.
SMRA will also do a non-preemptive rights issuance in the future to buy
more land bank. Stock now trades at 26% disc to NAV. Maintain O-PF.