Rabu, 07 Maret 2012

Kalbe Farma, Management revised its guidance upwards—numbers in line with our estimates, Credit Suisse

● Kalbe’s management has revised its 2012 guidance: it now
expects operating margins of 16.0-16.5% and earnings growth of
10-15% YoY, on the back of 18-20% revenue growth YoY.
Previously, during an analyst meeting in mid-Feb, management
had guided for 15-20% YoY revenue growth for 2012, with
operating margins of 15-16% and earnings growth of 5-10% YoY.
● Management said that the upward revisions were based on the
encouraging results in the first two months of this year, while it is
optimistic about price increases in 1H12. Management also sees
an improving trend for the newly launched products.
● Our forecasts are in line with management guidance. We expect
19% YoY revenue growth in 2012, with operating margins of
16.2% and net profit growth of 8% YoY.
● Our DCF-based target price of Rp3,100 implies 19.9x 2012E P/E,
with 27% estimated earnings growth over the next two years. The
stock has underperformed the JCI: it has only gained 2% YTD,
while the JCI has gained 4%. We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating.

PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk, Strong FY11A earnings, Credit Suisse

● PTBA reported strong net profit growth in FY11 of 54% YoY to
Rp3,085 bn. However, this is 5% below our expectation and 8%
below consensus due to higher-than-expected in COGS and G&A
expenses.
● Sales revenue was Rp10.6 tn, up 34% YoY, on higher sales volume
and ASP, just 2% below our expectation. Coal sales volume was
13.5 mn tonnes in FY11, up 4%, in line with expectations. The
average selling price was up 33% to US$89/t in FY11.
● The company was able to grow output at a six-year CAGR of
6.3%, despite railway transportation constraints, suggesting that
the state-owned railway company, is improving capacity. The
target is to increase the existing railway capacity to 22.7 mn tpa
by 2014. The new railway is projected to start operations in 2015.
● We retain OUTPERFORM on PTBA with a target price of Rp25,000,
based on a 40% premium to the average sector P/E of 8.4x, for its
significant reserves number. We believe it will continue its volume
growth by improving the existing railway capacity.