Fullerton Financial Holdings, a unit of Temasek, has entered into a share
agreement with DBS Group Holdings to sell its subsidiary Asia Financial’s
stake in BDMN to DBS. In addition, DBS will offer cash for the minorities,
at Rp7,000/share which is attractive in our view. We therefore prefer to
sell BDMN at a price close to Rp7,000/share and will review our price
target and recommendation accordingly after BDMN’s trading reopens.
Selasa, 03 April 2012
Indocement, Poised for growth, CLSA
Indocement has excess capacity and less cost pressure to deliver the
highest profit growth for FY12 vs peers. We raised our ave. selling price
growth assumption to 4%; ytd prices rose by 2%. We expect GP margin
to rebound to 48% in FY12 (FY11:46%), maintaining its superior margin
vs peers. INTP has no debt, and generates enough cashflow to fund more
expansion in the future. Valuation is still attractive vs peers. BUY.
highest profit growth for FY12 vs peers. We raised our ave. selling price
growth assumption to 4%; ytd prices rose by 2%. We expect GP margin
to rebound to 48% in FY12 (FY11:46%), maintaining its superior margin
vs peers. INTP has no debt, and generates enough cashflow to fund more
expansion in the future. Valuation is still attractive vs peers. BUY.
Holcim Indo, Strong momentum, CLSA
Holcim has excess capacity this year to grab market share; we expect
11% YoY sales growth in FY12/14; 2M12 sales grew a strong 26.8% YoY
vs 19.4% of market, at 16% of our FY expectation. We raised our ASP
growth assumption to 4% which will enable stable margin this year. The
company’s balance sheet is getting stronger, and should be moving into a
net cash position in 2014; even with US$325m capex expansion for 2013-
16. Holcim trades at a very attractive valuation vs peers. BUY.
11% YoY sales growth in FY12/14; 2M12 sales grew a strong 26.8% YoY
vs 19.4% of market, at 16% of our FY expectation. We raised our ASP
growth assumption to 4% which will enable stable margin this year. The
company’s balance sheet is getting stronger, and should be moving into a
net cash position in 2014; even with US$325m capex expansion for 2013-
16. Holcim trades at a very attractive valuation vs peers. BUY.
Semen Gresik, Limited upside this year, CLSA
With new capacity coming only in Apr and July, SMGR is likely to just be
able to maintain market share from last year. The company will also be
worst hit on margin given rising energy costs and depreciation despite
the 4% ASP growth assumption. SMGR also needs to gear up for
expansion and starts expensing higher interest in 2013 (previously
capitalized). Valuation is also more expensive vs peers. Maintain U-PF.
able to maintain market share from last year. The company will also be
worst hit on margin given rising energy costs and depreciation despite
the 4% ASP growth assumption. SMGR also needs to gear up for
expansion and starts expensing higher interest in 2013 (previously
capitalized). Valuation is also more expensive vs peers. Maintain U-PF.
Cement story, CLSA
Cement prices have started to gradually rise from 2Q11 until the
year end with a 5% weighted average increase. However, cement
price movement has been mixed in the first two months of 2012
with Kalimantan and Bali showing a strengthening trend (>15%)
but other islands showing weakening trend. The overall price
adjustment in eight cities under our watch is around +3.3%.
Strong demand from infrastructure projects in Kalimantan coupled
with bad weather and heavy congestion at ports has enabled
retailers to increase prices.
year end with a 5% weighted average increase. However, cement
price movement has been mixed in the first two months of 2012
with Kalimantan and Bali showing a strengthening trend (>15%)
but other islands showing weakening trend. The overall price
adjustment in eight cities under our watch is around +3.3%.
Strong demand from infrastructure projects in Kalimantan coupled
with bad weather and heavy congestion at ports has enabled
retailers to increase prices.
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