BMRI’s 1Q profit came in at Rp3.4T, in line with our estimate and slightly
ahead of consensus. We see moves to reduce variable bond exposure as a
positive, but wonder whether it is premature to price upside on that count
into the stock price; hence, we maintain our Dec-12 Rp7,250 PT.
Healthy results: At Rp3.4T, BMRI’s 1Q FY11 PAT was up 10% q/q
and came in 4% ahead of our estimate. Adjusted for one-off recoveries
last year, PAT grew by 39% y/y. Growth was driven by volumes – loans
grew by 29% y/y (in line with JPME), while margins (NIM 5.65%) have
been rangebound over the past five quarters. As 1Q PAT was 25% of
FY12E consensus, it might result in mild upside to estimates.
Kamis, 26 April 2012
Astra Agro Lestari, Disappointing 1Q12 Results on Lower CPO ASPs and Higher Costs; Reiterate Sell, Citi
1Q12 in a snapshot — CPO sales volume grew 5.2% YoY to 299k tons (23% of our
FY12E of 1.31m tons) but was insufficient to curb the negative impact of the 6.9% YoY
drop in CPO ASPs to Rp7,706/kg. Hence, revenues dropped 7% YoY to Rp2.6trn (20%
of CIRA FY12E; 22% consensus). This, along with higher COGS and OPEX (+9% YoY
and 32% YoY respectively) subsequently led to margin deterioration and dragged down
earnings by 42% YoY to Rp378bn (13% of CIRA FY12E and 14% consensus). Fig 2-5.
FY12E of 1.31m tons) but was insufficient to curb the negative impact of the 6.9% YoY
drop in CPO ASPs to Rp7,706/kg. Hence, revenues dropped 7% YoY to Rp2.6trn (20%
of CIRA FY12E; 22% consensus). This, along with higher COGS and OPEX (+9% YoY
and 32% YoY respectively) subsequently led to margin deterioration and dragged down
earnings by 42% YoY to Rp378bn (13% of CIRA FY12E and 14% consensus). Fig 2-5.
PT Kalbe Farma Tbk, 1Q12: Strong Quarter; Beats Expectations, Morgan Stanley
Quick Comment: Kalbe Farma reported strong results
for 1Q12. Revenue, EBIT, and PAT grew 27.7%, 23.6%,
and 27.7% yoy, respectively. Revenue beat
expectations by 4%, while earnings beat MS estimates
by 5-6%. The upside was driven by better-thanexpected
growth and margins from the Prescription
Pharma and Nutritionals divisions. 1Q PAT is 24% of our
full- year profit estimate (vs. historical average of c22%).
We continue to view Kalbe as a better consumption play
within our Indonesian consumer coverage and retain our
OW rating.
for 1Q12. Revenue, EBIT, and PAT grew 27.7%, 23.6%,
and 27.7% yoy, respectively. Revenue beat
expectations by 4%, while earnings beat MS estimates
by 5-6%. The upside was driven by better-thanexpected
growth and margins from the Prescription
Pharma and Nutritionals divisions. 1Q PAT is 24% of our
full- year profit estimate (vs. historical average of c22%).
We continue to view Kalbe as a better consumption play
within our Indonesian consumer coverage and retain our
OW rating.
BW Plantation, 1Q12: Strong y/y growth, Nomura
Earnings came in line with our and consensus estimates
1Q12 earnings made up 20% of our full-year forecasts and 21% of
consensus FY12 forecasts.
What do the results mean?
The results reaffirm our belief that BWPT will show strong earnings
growth in FY12. However, while our numbers are slightly higher than
consensus, our PB vs excess ROE valuation framework indicates that
there is not much room left to chase the stock at these levels.
1Q production growth is weak (+4% y/y) considering the >20% growth
that consensus expects for FY12. This is actually an industry-wide
problem, particularly in March, and we think production should normalise
from April onwards, but it does highlight that risks for BWPT are actually
biased on the downside since expectations are very high.
1Q12 earnings made up 20% of our full-year forecasts and 21% of
consensus FY12 forecasts.
What do the results mean?
The results reaffirm our belief that BWPT will show strong earnings
growth in FY12. However, while our numbers are slightly higher than
consensus, our PB vs excess ROE valuation framework indicates that
there is not much room left to chase the stock at these levels.
1Q production growth is weak (+4% y/y) considering the >20% growth
that consensus expects for FY12. This is actually an industry-wide
problem, particularly in March, and we think production should normalise
from April onwards, but it does highlight that risks for BWPT are actually
biased on the downside since expectations are very high.
Astra International, Rising competition in a growing market, Nomura
Astra’s best selling cars face
real competition for the first
time since their launch in 2004
Since their launch in Jan 2004, we think the best-selling Toyota
Avanza/Daihatsu Xenia have faced no real competition in their segment.
However, we expect this to change this year, with the launch of Suzuki
Ertiga and the upcoming launch of Nissan NV200/Evalia in June ‘12.
Rising competition in a growing market is a clear emerging theme, in our
view.
real competition for the first
time since their launch in 2004
Since their launch in Jan 2004, we think the best-selling Toyota
Avanza/Daihatsu Xenia have faced no real competition in their segment.
However, we expect this to change this year, with the launch of Suzuki
Ertiga and the upcoming launch of Nissan NV200/Evalia in June ‘12.
Rising competition in a growing market is a clear emerging theme, in our
view.
Rabu, 25 April 2012
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 26 April 2012
GZCO : Stochastic mulai rebound dari area oversold membuka peluang
terjadinya teknikal rebound lanjutan.
Support : S1 335
S2 320
Resisten : R1 350
R2 370
Selasa, 24 April 2012
Jasa Marga, In growing phase, CLSA
JSMR remains our preferred pick in infra space. It booked a strong 11%
YoY growth in 1Q12 traffic. While we trimmed our earnings to reflect
changes in accounting booking and some increases in ex-labor costs,
margin will continue to expand on the back of operational leverage and
more automation. We raised or DCF-valuation to Rp8,950/sh reflecting
higher assumptions on tariff and traffic and the additional NusaDua
project. Our TP reflects 28% disc to this DCF-valuation.
YoY growth in 1Q12 traffic. While we trimmed our earnings to reflect
changes in accounting booking and some increases in ex-labor costs,
margin will continue to expand on the back of operational leverage and
more automation. We raised or DCF-valuation to Rp8,950/sh reflecting
higher assumptions on tariff and traffic and the additional NusaDua
project. Our TP reflects 28% disc to this DCF-valuation.
MNC, Winning in PRIME time, CLSA
MNCN is sitting in the PRIME position. The ad cycle couldn’t be better with
rising consumption & FDI driving competition. While the rate card
expands +15-20%, MNC’s cost base is largely fixed driving huge
operating leverage. We forecast 20% top-line & 40% bottom-line growth
in 2012. MNCN trades at a discount to consumer companies despite
higher operating leverage and being a beneficiary of competition. The
stock is one of key conviction calls – our TP implies 28% upside. BUY.
rising consumption & FDI driving competition. While the rate card
expands +15-20%, MNC’s cost base is largely fixed driving huge
operating leverage. We forecast 20% top-line & 40% bottom-line growth
in 2012. MNCN trades at a discount to consumer companies despite
higher operating leverage and being a beneficiary of competition. The
stock is one of key conviction calls – our TP implies 28% upside. BUY.
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 24 April 2012
GGRM : Stochatsic kembali golden cross membuka peluang
berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1 58.500
S2 57.000
Resisten : R1 60.450
R2 62.550
Jumat, 20 April 2012
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 20 April 2012
ANTM : Stochastic golden cross dan
histogram menghijau mengindikasikan dapat berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1
1.730 S2 1.690
Resisten : R1 1.780
R2 1.820
Kamis, 19 April 2012
Ace Hardware, 100 stores by 2015, CLSA
Having opened its 59th new store in Tebet (South Jakarta) this month, the
company is on track to meet their targeted 15 additional stores or +20%
on gross space basis. Coupled with strong same-store-sales growth
(Sssg) number of 18.3% as of 3M12, we foresee the company to deliver a
robust 26% top-line growth this year. Well execution should lead them to
possess 100 stores by 2015, while competition may however limit their
margin expansion. We maintain our BUY rating on the company with
slightly lower TP of Rp5,400/sh to reflect some margin pressure.
company is on track to meet their targeted 15 additional stores or +20%
on gross space basis. Coupled with strong same-store-sales growth
(Sssg) number of 18.3% as of 3M12, we foresee the company to deliver a
robust 26% top-line growth this year. Well execution should lead them to
possess 100 stores by 2015, while competition may however limit their
margin expansion. We maintain our BUY rating on the company with
slightly lower TP of Rp5,400/sh to reflect some margin pressure.
BTPN, Productive bank, CLSA
BTPN is one of the few banks with a unique value proposition. After its
successful story in the micro segment, the bank is now entering the
“productive poor” segment, which also offers superb margin. This effort
will support the bank’s sustainable growth. We like the bank’s strong
management and strategy serving a very niche market. We reinitiate the
stock with an outperform recommendation.
successful story in the micro segment, the bank is now entering the
“productive poor” segment, which also offers superb margin. This effort
will support the bank’s sustainable growth. We like the bank’s strong
management and strategy serving a very niche market. We reinitiate the
stock with an outperform recommendation.
Bukit Asam, Not giving up, CLSA
We attended an analyst briefing hosted by PTBA’s corporate secretary and investor relations team. Key takeaways are 1Q12 production is likely at the lower end of our estimates and probably disappoint consensus at c. 3mt. On the plus side, domestic prices are locked in at an average US$87/t (+3% yoy), in line with our estimate. The company is still adamant on winning back concessions issued by the Lahat regency in South Sumatra, including Adaro’s MIP concession.
MBSS, Barging through, CLSA
MBSS is a coal transportation and logistics provider servicing the coal industry predominantly in Kalimantan. It is 51% owned by energy investment group Indika Energy with the founding family still in charge of day to day operations. MBSS has a diversified customer base and strong track record in growing operations on stable margins. It is not a shipping company and is leveraged to coal production growth. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and target price of Rp2,000/sh
Rabu, 18 April 2012
Saham Pilihan Rabu, 18 April 2012
BMTR : Histogram hijau yang mendekati area positif dengan MACD
yang mulai kembali rebound membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1 1.660
S2 1.610
Resisten : R1
1.770 R2 1.800
Selasa, 17 April 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 17 April 2012
BBRI : MACD, histogram dan stochastic
dalam tren yang meningkat mengindikasikan kenaikan harga masih dapat berlanjut.
Support : S1 6.950
S2 6.850
Resisten : R1 7.150
R2 7.300
Jumat, 13 April 2012
Gozco, Forever Young
Gozco Plantations (GZCO IJ) is showered with abundant land bank
availability and young age profile (average age of 7 compared to peers of
10). Factoring additional mature hectarage of 2.1k ha, we estimate 20%
growth in CPO production, leading to 10% EPS growth in 2012. But this is
just the beginning, with FFB production Cagr of 52% from 2011-14CL, we
believe Gozco full potential to kick off in 2014. We set our TP at Rp
410/sh, implying 10x 2013 P/E, 30% discount to Astra Agro. O-PF.
availability and young age profile (average age of 7 compared to peers of
10). Factoring additional mature hectarage of 2.1k ha, we estimate 20%
growth in CPO production, leading to 10% EPS growth in 2012. But this is
just the beginning, with FFB production Cagr of 52% from 2011-14CL, we
believe Gozco full potential to kick off in 2014. We set our TP at Rp
410/sh, implying 10x 2013 P/E, 30% discount to Astra Agro. O-PF.
Sampoerna Agro, Inferior margin, CLSA
Sampoerna Agro (SGRO IJ), the fourth-largest plantation company by
planted area, would likely to see inferior margin compared to its peers,
particularly during strong CPO price environment. The fact that their
plasma production accounts for 40% of company’s plantation area would
translate to higher cost – of which about 70-75% of production cost still
come from FFB purchased. Re-initiate with U-PF on its inferior margin and
more volatile production.
planted area, would likely to see inferior margin compared to its peers,
particularly during strong CPO price environment. The fact that their
plasma production accounts for 40% of company’s plantation area would
translate to higher cost – of which about 70-75% of production cost still
come from FFB purchased. Re-initiate with U-PF on its inferior margin and
more volatile production.
Lonsum, Superior profitability, CLSA
We like London Sumatra (LSIP IJ) on its superior cost structure and
production growth profile. We expect to see company’s oil yield
improving to 4.5-4.8tons/ha in 2012-13, from 4.3tons/ha in 2011
supported by its continued infrastructure improvement coupled with
maturing age profile. Its Ebit margin also stands out at 41-42% range,
the highest amongst CPO companies under our coverage. We set our TP
at Rp3,600/sh, implying 13x 2013 P/E, 10% discount to Astra Agro. BUY.
production growth profile. We expect to see company’s oil yield
improving to 4.5-4.8tons/ha in 2012-13, from 4.3tons/ha in 2011
supported by its continued infrastructure improvement coupled with
maturing age profile. Its Ebit margin also stands out at 41-42% range,
the highest amongst CPO companies under our coverage. We set our TP
at Rp3,600/sh, implying 13x 2013 P/E, 10% discount to Astra Agro. BUY.
Astra Agro, Mounting production cost, CLSA
Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ) is set to see production growth slowing to
5% Cagr over 2011-14CL as plantation ages, exacerbated by lack of land
bank and rising costs. Third party FFB dependency will continue to erode
margin, while rising wage will lead to 5% higher production costs. We
thus trim our 2012/13 EPS by 12-16% respectively elaborating new
export tax as well as higher production costs. We set our TP at
Rp24,000/sh, based on 14x FY13 EPS, its 5-yrs mean P/E. Re-initiate
with U-PF.
5% Cagr over 2011-14CL as plantation ages, exacerbated by lack of land
bank and rising costs. Third party FFB dependency will continue to erode
margin, while rising wage will lead to 5% higher production costs. We
thus trim our 2012/13 EPS by 12-16% respectively elaborating new
export tax as well as higher production costs. We set our TP at
Rp24,000/sh, based on 14x FY13 EPS, its 5-yrs mean P/E. Re-initiate
with U-PF.
Astra Intl, The magnificent Honda, CLSA
Honda is not slowing down even after a victory over Yamaha last year. It
gained another 4% lead over Yamaha in 1Q12, supported by successful
launch of new model, with more to come. Impact from higher down
payments on financing and potential subsidized fuel price hike are risks to
earnings, but Astra is a much more diversified company now, with less
reliance on 2W market. With demand unleashes on the under-penetrated
4W market and UNTR business expansion unfolds, we expect mkt cap to
reach US$50bn by 2015. Maintain O-PF.
gained another 4% lead over Yamaha in 1Q12, supported by successful
launch of new model, with more to come. Impact from higher down
payments on financing and potential subsidized fuel price hike are risks to
earnings, but Astra is a much more diversified company now, with less
reliance on 2W market. With demand unleashes on the under-penetrated
4W market and UNTR business expansion unfolds, we expect mkt cap to
reach US$50bn by 2015. Maintain O-PF.
Indonesia Plantation, Supply tightness, CLSA
We believe palm oil supply will be tight in the near-term as weather
volatility prevails amid lack of new plantings. Particularly for Indo,
production growth of palm oil will likely decelerate to 6% this year from
2011’s 8% as trees enter biological slowdown while domestic demand is
seen rising. As a consequence, we uplift our CPO price assumption to
RM3,300/t this year. Amongst Indo plantation companies, we like LSIP
given its superior profitability and strong production growth potential.
volatility prevails amid lack of new plantings. Particularly for Indo,
production growth of palm oil will likely decelerate to 6% this year from
2011’s 8% as trees enter biological slowdown while domestic demand is
seen rising. As a consequence, we uplift our CPO price assumption to
RM3,300/t this year. Amongst Indo plantation companies, we like LSIP
given its superior profitability and strong production growth potential.
Selasa, 10 April 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 10 April 2012
MEDC : Stochastic golden cross di area oversold dan berpeluang
reversal keatas melanjutkan tren naik
Support : S1 2.075
S2 1.990
Resisten : R1 2.125
R2 2.175
Senin, 09 April 2012
Bank Mandiri, Saved by retail, CLSA
While the lower yield on VR bonds may continue weighing on the bank’s
performance this year, a better loan mix and funding composition will
compensate for it, in our view. Against this backdrop (which we believe is
more external than internal), we like the bank’s consistent efforts to grow
its retail segment and strengthen its deposit franchise. We therefore
maintain our outperform call on the bank despite heightened regulatory
risk which may put pressure on the bank’s LT ROE, similar to other banks
in the system.
performance this year, a better loan mix and funding composition will
compensate for it, in our view. Against this backdrop (which we believe is
more external than internal), we like the bank’s consistent efforts to grow
its retail segment and strengthen its deposit franchise. We therefore
maintain our outperform call on the bank despite heightened regulatory
risk which may put pressure on the bank’s LT ROE, similar to other banks
in the system.
Saham Pilihan, Senin 9 April 2012
MTLA : Terlihat tren naik yang diikuti
oleh volume yang cukup baik.
Support : S1
505 S2 470
Resisten : R1
550 R2 600
Kamis, 05 April 2012
Indo industrial estate, Shimmering industrialization, CLSA
No sign of demand slowing down in sight for industrial land, as industrial
estate developers posted sterling performance in FY11. Given robust
demand and land scarcity, the industrial land price upward momentum
picked up where they left off at the end of 2011. The resurgence of
manufacturing sector, especially automotive and related sector, serves as
another catalyst for industrial land. We expect the trend to continue for
the next few years. Despite strong performance, industrial estate
developers are still trading at average 53% disc. to NAV. Positive view for
industrial estate plays.
estate developers posted sterling performance in FY11. Given robust
demand and land scarcity, the industrial land price upward momentum
picked up where they left off at the end of 2011. The resurgence of
manufacturing sector, especially automotive and related sector, serves as
another catalyst for industrial land. We expect the trend to continue for
the next few years. Despite strong performance, industrial estate
developers are still trading at average 53% disc. to NAV. Positive view for
industrial estate plays.
Rabu, 04 April 2012
Indonesian Coal, Mixed FY11, CLSA
Indonesian thermal coal producers lived up to their production promises in FY11, but reported a mixed set of results. Standouts were Adaro and ITM which reported above ours and consensus expectations on strong ASP and cost control. Oil prices present the biggest risk to earnings in 12CL having averaged US$117/t during 1Q11. We factor in increased fuel costs into our numbers. Top picks remain ITM for defensive earnings and yield and Harum for highest production growth under our coverage.
Selasa, 03 April 2012
Bank Danamon, Acquisition in the offing, CLSA
Fullerton Financial Holdings, a unit of Temasek, has entered into a share
agreement with DBS Group Holdings to sell its subsidiary Asia Financial’s
stake in BDMN to DBS. In addition, DBS will offer cash for the minorities,
at Rp7,000/share which is attractive in our view. We therefore prefer to
sell BDMN at a price close to Rp7,000/share and will review our price
target and recommendation accordingly after BDMN’s trading reopens.
agreement with DBS Group Holdings to sell its subsidiary Asia Financial’s
stake in BDMN to DBS. In addition, DBS will offer cash for the minorities,
at Rp7,000/share which is attractive in our view. We therefore prefer to
sell BDMN at a price close to Rp7,000/share and will review our price
target and recommendation accordingly after BDMN’s trading reopens.
Indocement, Poised for growth, CLSA
Indocement has excess capacity and less cost pressure to deliver the
highest profit growth for FY12 vs peers. We raised our ave. selling price
growth assumption to 4%; ytd prices rose by 2%. We expect GP margin
to rebound to 48% in FY12 (FY11:46%), maintaining its superior margin
vs peers. INTP has no debt, and generates enough cashflow to fund more
expansion in the future. Valuation is still attractive vs peers. BUY.
highest profit growth for FY12 vs peers. We raised our ave. selling price
growth assumption to 4%; ytd prices rose by 2%. We expect GP margin
to rebound to 48% in FY12 (FY11:46%), maintaining its superior margin
vs peers. INTP has no debt, and generates enough cashflow to fund more
expansion in the future. Valuation is still attractive vs peers. BUY.
Holcim Indo, Strong momentum, CLSA
Holcim has excess capacity this year to grab market share; we expect
11% YoY sales growth in FY12/14; 2M12 sales grew a strong 26.8% YoY
vs 19.4% of market, at 16% of our FY expectation. We raised our ASP
growth assumption to 4% which will enable stable margin this year. The
company’s balance sheet is getting stronger, and should be moving into a
net cash position in 2014; even with US$325m capex expansion for 2013-
16. Holcim trades at a very attractive valuation vs peers. BUY.
11% YoY sales growth in FY12/14; 2M12 sales grew a strong 26.8% YoY
vs 19.4% of market, at 16% of our FY expectation. We raised our ASP
growth assumption to 4% which will enable stable margin this year. The
company’s balance sheet is getting stronger, and should be moving into a
net cash position in 2014; even with US$325m capex expansion for 2013-
16. Holcim trades at a very attractive valuation vs peers. BUY.
Semen Gresik, Limited upside this year, CLSA
With new capacity coming only in Apr and July, SMGR is likely to just be
able to maintain market share from last year. The company will also be
worst hit on margin given rising energy costs and depreciation despite
the 4% ASP growth assumption. SMGR also needs to gear up for
expansion and starts expensing higher interest in 2013 (previously
capitalized). Valuation is also more expensive vs peers. Maintain U-PF.
able to maintain market share from last year. The company will also be
worst hit on margin given rising energy costs and depreciation despite
the 4% ASP growth assumption. SMGR also needs to gear up for
expansion and starts expensing higher interest in 2013 (previously
capitalized). Valuation is also more expensive vs peers. Maintain U-PF.
Cement story, CLSA
Cement prices have started to gradually rise from 2Q11 until the
year end with a 5% weighted average increase. However, cement
price movement has been mixed in the first two months of 2012
with Kalimantan and Bali showing a strengthening trend (>15%)
but other islands showing weakening trend. The overall price
adjustment in eight cities under our watch is around +3.3%.
Strong demand from infrastructure projects in Kalimantan coupled
with bad weather and heavy congestion at ports has enabled
retailers to increase prices.
year end with a 5% weighted average increase. However, cement
price movement has been mixed in the first two months of 2012
with Kalimantan and Bali showing a strengthening trend (>15%)
but other islands showing weakening trend. The overall price
adjustment in eight cities under our watch is around +3.3%.
Strong demand from infrastructure projects in Kalimantan coupled
with bad weather and heavy congestion at ports has enabled
retailers to increase prices.
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