United Tractors, A challenging year, Danareksa

FY12 sales volume forecast lowered to 9,000 units
Sales of Komatsu rebounded 3% mom to 773 units in May 2012. By sector, the mining accounted
for 62% of the total sales volume, followed by the agro (18%), the construction (13%) and the
forestry (7%). Komatsu’s market share, however, was lower than in 2011 (45% in 5M12 vs 49% in
FY11). This owed to the fierce competition in the heavy equipment industry, especially the 20-ton
class excavator segment (40% of heavy equipment sales volume and 20% of heavy equipment
sales value). On account of this stiff competition, we trim our FY12-13 sales volume forecasts by
5.3-9.6% to 9,000-9,450 units. We feel more comfortable with these numbers, especially since the
highest monthly sales so far this year is the 821 units recorded in March. Moreover, the sales volume
in the last month of the year, December, is typically low. At the same time, we also foresee lower
margins as UT battles the competition through its promotional and financing schemes, although
a larger contribution from after-sales services should help support its margins.

Indo Auto, Short term pain, CLSA

We checked with dealers and financing companies to see how things are
post higher down payment regulation (June 15). While sales in 2W had
weakened, we saw loopholes that will help softening the blow. Our
channel-checks also conclude that there is no standout among the new
low-MPV models, but we think Toyota can maintain dominance, given its
strong resale value and good after-sales services (vast dist. network).
While headwinds exist, the auto market had endured multiple crises. We
maintain O-PF on Astra, now at 14.2 PE12 and 12.4x PE13.

Global Economy - Monthly Review, Credit Suisse

The slow get slower; so do
most of the rest

We have revised down our 2012 and 2013 global GDP growth expectations to
3.3% and 3.8% from our April 3.6% and 4.2% estimates, respectively. The
downward revisions are broad-based across both developed and emerging
markets.

While we continue to hold the view that global GDP growth will be stronger in
the second half than the first, the ongoing downswing in cyclical momentum is
becoming more concerning as the slow path of many economies gets even
slower. Risks to our outlook still seem tilted to the downside barring a more
prompt and definitive resolution of Europe’s financial architecture crisis.