Global Economy - Monthly Review, Credit Suisse

The slow get slower; so do
most of the rest

We have revised down our 2012 and 2013 global GDP growth expectations to
3.3% and 3.8% from our April 3.6% and 4.2% estimates, respectively. The
downward revisions are broad-based across both developed and emerging
markets.

While we continue to hold the view that global GDP growth will be stronger in
the second half than the first, the ongoing downswing in cyclical momentum is
becoming more concerning as the slow path of many economies gets even
slower. Risks to our outlook still seem tilted to the downside barring a more
prompt and definitive resolution of Europe’s financial architecture crisis.


As expected, at this week’s G-20 meeting in Los Cabos, Mexico called for
expansionary policies to support global growth, but it won’t be a lot. Central
banks are taking out monetary insurance to a greater or lesser degree in most
regions. But fiscal policy insurance is hardly available anywhere.

We think there’s little prospect of falling back into a great recession abyss; but
there is also little prospect regrettably of getting back up to boom-like near-5%
global growth any time soon.

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