Negotiation on fuel price hike to be completed this week; likely by 29 Mar voting
— Although the six factions (which control 75.5% of the 560 House Seats) agreed to
set the fuel subsidy at Rp137trn (US$14.9bn), which could clear the way for the
government to raise the price of subsidized fuel by 33% to Rp6,000/litre (not the first
time as fuel prices was at Rp6,000/litre in May-Dec 2008 and GDP still grew by 6.1%
YoY), the government still needs the approval of the House to revoke an article in the
law that governs the 2012 State Budget. The article states that the government cannot
raise the price of subsidized gasoline at gas stations. The decision is likely to be linked
to the voting being done on Thursday 29 March, but could drag on until right before the
expectation of fuel price hike on 1 April 2012. The government needs to get 50% + 1
vote to get approval from the parliament.
Kamis, 29 Maret 2012
Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK), Alert: Solid 4Q11 Results; Margins Firming Up, Citi
What stood out in the numbers — Net earnings more than tripled Y-Y in 4Q11 (+64%
Q-Q) to US$175m on higher ASP. This brings 2011 net earnings to more than double YY
to US$550m – 5% above consensus estimate and 15% above Citi’s. While the surge
in net earnings was mainly due to the low base in 4Q10 (on heavy rainfall) and one-off
item in 3Q11, the operating results were robust in 4Q11. Gross and operating margins
firmed up sequentially in 4Q11 to 39.7% and 35.1% respectively, from 35.6% and
32.4% in 3Q11, thanks to a substantially higher ASP and good cost control.
Q-Q) to US$175m on higher ASP. This brings 2011 net earnings to more than double YY
to US$550m – 5% above consensus estimate and 15% above Citi’s. While the surge
in net earnings was mainly due to the low base in 4Q10 (on heavy rainfall) and one-off
item in 3Q11, the operating results were robust in 4Q11. Gross and operating margins
firmed up sequentially in 4Q11 to 39.7% and 35.1% respectively, from 35.6% and
32.4% in 3Q11, thanks to a substantially higher ASP and good cost control.
Mitra Adiperkasa, Mounting cost pressure, CLSA
Despite strong 4Q11 result, we believe Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) might
face near-term potential operating risk from mounting cost pressure and
higher working capital requirement this year. Its plan to open two new
department stores paired with rising salary and rental cost should
translate to lower Ebit margin of 9.4% (vs 2011’s 10.6%). Armed with
these facts, we slightly cut our earnings estimate by 4% for FY12-13CL
and downgrade our recommendation to O-PF, from Buy.
face near-term potential operating risk from mounting cost pressure and
higher working capital requirement this year. Its plan to open two new
department stores paired with rising salary and rental cost should
translate to lower Ebit margin of 9.4% (vs 2011’s 10.6%). Armed with
these facts, we slightly cut our earnings estimate by 4% for FY12-13CL
and downgrade our recommendation to O-PF, from Buy.
Saham Pilihan, Kamis 29 Maret 2012
AALI : Volume beli meningkat
signifikan membuat MACD dab stochastic bergerak rebound keatas, histogram
menuju area positif masih membuka peluang penguatan.
Support : S1
22.100 S2 21.250
Resisten : R1
23.000 R2 24.100
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