Mean Reversion
Our Indonesian thermal coal universe is up 11% year to date as investors
have moved firmly back to risk on and have rerated cyclical equities.
Following recent share price strength, we replace PTBA with Harum as
our second choice behind defensively positioned ITM. Retain neutral
weighting as the sector remains the most exposed in Indonesia to
investor sentiment on global macro events.
Senin, 13 Februari 2012
Bukit Asam, One Track Mine, CLSA
We attended a site visit to South Sumatra last week visiting PTBA’s mine,
river port and rail infrastructure. PTBA is one of the lowest cost producers
in Indonesia with a highly mechanised operation and low mining strip
ratio. The stock has been an early outperformer in 2012 up 21% ytd. We
raise our target price to Rp23,500/sh following a re-rating of cyclical
equities. We retain our Outperform call but as the stock now only offers
12% upside to our fair value would prefer to buy on any weakness.
Mechanised mining
river port and rail infrastructure. PTBA is one of the lowest cost producers
in Indonesia with a highly mechanised operation and low mining strip
ratio. The stock has been an early outperformer in 2012 up 21% ytd. We
raise our target price to Rp23,500/sh following a re-rating of cyclical
equities. We retain our Outperform call but as the stock now only offers
12% upside to our fair value would prefer to buy on any weakness.
Mechanised mining
Indonesia Equity Strategy, FY2011 Earnings Preview, JP Morgan
Our analysis suggests that 4QFY11E Net profits for the JP Morgan
Universe grew at about 10% y/y, and 4% q/q. In aggregate these numbers
are in line with consensus. Compared to previous quarters, we note a
higher proportion of stocks with earnings seen coming in below consensus.
However these are concentrated in the resources space. In contrast we
anticipate property sector earnings coming ahead of the street, along with
autos and industrials.
! Earnings Estimate Overview: We forecast an overall growth of 4% q/q
and 10% y/y for total net profits of Rp32.6tr (excluding BRMS and
BULL). Our numbers are within 2% of consensus in aggregate.
Universe grew at about 10% y/y, and 4% q/q. In aggregate these numbers
are in line with consensus. Compared to previous quarters, we note a
higher proportion of stocks with earnings seen coming in below consensus.
However these are concentrated in the resources space. In contrast we
anticipate property sector earnings coming ahead of the street, along with
autos and industrials.
! Earnings Estimate Overview: We forecast an overall growth of 4% q/q
and 10% y/y for total net profits of Rp32.6tr (excluding BRMS and
BULL). Our numbers are within 2% of consensus in aggregate.
Indonesia Market Strategy, Flirting with inflation is not good for consumer names, Credit Suisse
● We concur with our economics team view that the recent 25 bp
cut in policy rate may lead to higher price expectations and thus
inflation may have troughed.
● With the exception of the post-2008 global financial crisis, when
the world was coming out of deflation fears, we find the uptrend in
inflation has been unfavourable for Indonesian consumer names.
Saham Pilihan Senin, 13 Februari 2012
ASII : Harga sudah jatuh memasuki area oversold dengan indicator stochastic
mulai mengindikasikan pola reversal keatas.
Support : S1 70.900
S2 68.700
Resisten : R1 72.550 R2 74.300
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