BMRI’s 1Q profit came in at Rp3.4T, in line with our estimate and slightly
ahead of consensus. We see moves to reduce variable bond exposure as a
positive, but wonder whether it is premature to price upside on that count
into the stock price; hence, we maintain our Dec-12 Rp7,250 PT.
Healthy results: At Rp3.4T, BMRI’s 1Q FY11 PAT was up 10% q/q
and came in 4% ahead of our estimate. Adjusted for one-off recoveries
last year, PAT grew by 39% y/y. Growth was driven by volumes – loans
grew by 29% y/y (in line with JPME), while margins (NIM 5.65%) have
been rangebound over the past five quarters. As 1Q PAT was 25% of
FY12E consensus, it might result in mild upside to estimates.
Kamis, 26 April 2012
Astra Agro Lestari, Disappointing 1Q12 Results on Lower CPO ASPs and Higher Costs; Reiterate Sell, Citi
1Q12 in a snapshot — CPO sales volume grew 5.2% YoY to 299k tons (23% of our
FY12E of 1.31m tons) but was insufficient to curb the negative impact of the 6.9% YoY
drop in CPO ASPs to Rp7,706/kg. Hence, revenues dropped 7% YoY to Rp2.6trn (20%
of CIRA FY12E; 22% consensus). This, along with higher COGS and OPEX (+9% YoY
and 32% YoY respectively) subsequently led to margin deterioration and dragged down
earnings by 42% YoY to Rp378bn (13% of CIRA FY12E and 14% consensus). Fig 2-5.
FY12E of 1.31m tons) but was insufficient to curb the negative impact of the 6.9% YoY
drop in CPO ASPs to Rp7,706/kg. Hence, revenues dropped 7% YoY to Rp2.6trn (20%
of CIRA FY12E; 22% consensus). This, along with higher COGS and OPEX (+9% YoY
and 32% YoY respectively) subsequently led to margin deterioration and dragged down
earnings by 42% YoY to Rp378bn (13% of CIRA FY12E and 14% consensus). Fig 2-5.
PT Kalbe Farma Tbk, 1Q12: Strong Quarter; Beats Expectations, Morgan Stanley
Quick Comment: Kalbe Farma reported strong results
for 1Q12. Revenue, EBIT, and PAT grew 27.7%, 23.6%,
and 27.7% yoy, respectively. Revenue beat
expectations by 4%, while earnings beat MS estimates
by 5-6%. The upside was driven by better-thanexpected
growth and margins from the Prescription
Pharma and Nutritionals divisions. 1Q PAT is 24% of our
full- year profit estimate (vs. historical average of c22%).
We continue to view Kalbe as a better consumption play
within our Indonesian consumer coverage and retain our
OW rating.
for 1Q12. Revenue, EBIT, and PAT grew 27.7%, 23.6%,
and 27.7% yoy, respectively. Revenue beat
expectations by 4%, while earnings beat MS estimates
by 5-6%. The upside was driven by better-thanexpected
growth and margins from the Prescription
Pharma and Nutritionals divisions. 1Q PAT is 24% of our
full- year profit estimate (vs. historical average of c22%).
We continue to view Kalbe as a better consumption play
within our Indonesian consumer coverage and retain our
OW rating.
BW Plantation, 1Q12: Strong y/y growth, Nomura
Earnings came in line with our and consensus estimates
1Q12 earnings made up 20% of our full-year forecasts and 21% of
consensus FY12 forecasts.
What do the results mean?
The results reaffirm our belief that BWPT will show strong earnings
growth in FY12. However, while our numbers are slightly higher than
consensus, our PB vs excess ROE valuation framework indicates that
there is not much room left to chase the stock at these levels.
1Q production growth is weak (+4% y/y) considering the >20% growth
that consensus expects for FY12. This is actually an industry-wide
problem, particularly in March, and we think production should normalise
from April onwards, but it does highlight that risks for BWPT are actually
biased on the downside since expectations are very high.
1Q12 earnings made up 20% of our full-year forecasts and 21% of
consensus FY12 forecasts.
What do the results mean?
The results reaffirm our belief that BWPT will show strong earnings
growth in FY12. However, while our numbers are slightly higher than
consensus, our PB vs excess ROE valuation framework indicates that
there is not much room left to chase the stock at these levels.
1Q production growth is weak (+4% y/y) considering the >20% growth
that consensus expects for FY12. This is actually an industry-wide
problem, particularly in March, and we think production should normalise
from April onwards, but it does highlight that risks for BWPT are actually
biased on the downside since expectations are very high.
Astra International, Rising competition in a growing market, Nomura
Astra’s best selling cars face
real competition for the first
time since their launch in 2004
Since their launch in Jan 2004, we think the best-selling Toyota
Avanza/Daihatsu Xenia have faced no real competition in their segment.
However, we expect this to change this year, with the launch of Suzuki
Ertiga and the upcoming launch of Nissan NV200/Evalia in June ‘12.
Rising competition in a growing market is a clear emerging theme, in our
view.
real competition for the first
time since their launch in 2004
Since their launch in Jan 2004, we think the best-selling Toyota
Avanza/Daihatsu Xenia have faced no real competition in their segment.
However, we expect this to change this year, with the launch of Suzuki
Ertiga and the upcoming launch of Nissan NV200/Evalia in June ‘12.
Rising competition in a growing market is a clear emerging theme, in our
view.
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