We foresee flat Ebit margin of 13% this year despite lower input cost, due
to less likelihood of price adjustment coupled with stiffer competition
which lead to greater ads spending. The company has targeted to
increase its ads spending by about 30% this year, or about 3.5% of its
total sales, from 2.9% in 2011. We thus trim our earnings assumption by
3-5% for FY12-13CL, which translate to 8% earnings Cagr over FY11-
14CL, halved from its consumer peers. Retain U-PF with new TP of
Rp5,400/sh.
Jumat, 30 Maret 2012
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 300312
AALI : MACD golden cross diikuti oleh
histogram positif masih mengindikasikan tren naik
Support : S1
22.100 S2 21.250
Resisten : R1
24.150 R2 24.800
Kamis, 29 Maret 2012
Indonesian Strategy, Fuel Price Hike Decision Likely To Be Decided By Voting, Citi
Negotiation on fuel price hike to be completed this week; likely by 29 Mar voting
— Although the six factions (which control 75.5% of the 560 House Seats) agreed to
set the fuel subsidy at Rp137trn (US$14.9bn), which could clear the way for the
government to raise the price of subsidized fuel by 33% to Rp6,000/litre (not the first
time as fuel prices was at Rp6,000/litre in May-Dec 2008 and GDP still grew by 6.1%
YoY), the government still needs the approval of the House to revoke an article in the
law that governs the 2012 State Budget. The article states that the government cannot
raise the price of subsidized gasoline at gas stations. The decision is likely to be linked
to the voting being done on Thursday 29 March, but could drag on until right before the
expectation of fuel price hike on 1 April 2012. The government needs to get 50% + 1
vote to get approval from the parliament.
— Although the six factions (which control 75.5% of the 560 House Seats) agreed to
set the fuel subsidy at Rp137trn (US$14.9bn), which could clear the way for the
government to raise the price of subsidized fuel by 33% to Rp6,000/litre (not the first
time as fuel prices was at Rp6,000/litre in May-Dec 2008 and GDP still grew by 6.1%
YoY), the government still needs the approval of the House to revoke an article in the
law that governs the 2012 State Budget. The article states that the government cannot
raise the price of subsidized gasoline at gas stations. The decision is likely to be linked
to the voting being done on Thursday 29 March, but could drag on until right before the
expectation of fuel price hike on 1 April 2012. The government needs to get 50% + 1
vote to get approval from the parliament.
Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK), Alert: Solid 4Q11 Results; Margins Firming Up, Citi
What stood out in the numbers — Net earnings more than tripled Y-Y in 4Q11 (+64%
Q-Q) to US$175m on higher ASP. This brings 2011 net earnings to more than double YY
to US$550m – 5% above consensus estimate and 15% above Citi’s. While the surge
in net earnings was mainly due to the low base in 4Q10 (on heavy rainfall) and one-off
item in 3Q11, the operating results were robust in 4Q11. Gross and operating margins
firmed up sequentially in 4Q11 to 39.7% and 35.1% respectively, from 35.6% and
32.4% in 3Q11, thanks to a substantially higher ASP and good cost control.
Q-Q) to US$175m on higher ASP. This brings 2011 net earnings to more than double YY
to US$550m – 5% above consensus estimate and 15% above Citi’s. While the surge
in net earnings was mainly due to the low base in 4Q10 (on heavy rainfall) and one-off
item in 3Q11, the operating results were robust in 4Q11. Gross and operating margins
firmed up sequentially in 4Q11 to 39.7% and 35.1% respectively, from 35.6% and
32.4% in 3Q11, thanks to a substantially higher ASP and good cost control.
Mitra Adiperkasa, Mounting cost pressure, CLSA
Despite strong 4Q11 result, we believe Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) might
face near-term potential operating risk from mounting cost pressure and
higher working capital requirement this year. Its plan to open two new
department stores paired with rising salary and rental cost should
translate to lower Ebit margin of 9.4% (vs 2011’s 10.6%). Armed with
these facts, we slightly cut our earnings estimate by 4% for FY12-13CL
and downgrade our recommendation to O-PF, from Buy.
face near-term potential operating risk from mounting cost pressure and
higher working capital requirement this year. Its plan to open two new
department stores paired with rising salary and rental cost should
translate to lower Ebit margin of 9.4% (vs 2011’s 10.6%). Armed with
these facts, we slightly cut our earnings estimate by 4% for FY12-13CL
and downgrade our recommendation to O-PF, from Buy.
Saham Pilihan, Kamis 29 Maret 2012
AALI : Volume beli meningkat
signifikan membuat MACD dab stochastic bergerak rebound keatas, histogram
menuju area positif masih membuka peluang penguatan.
Support : S1
22.100 S2 21.250
Resisten : R1
23.000 R2 24.100
Selasa, 27 Maret 2012
AKR, Fuelling ahead, CLSA
AKR reported a strong FY11 result, with in line with CL estimates and 5% ahead of consensus. Revenue grew 82% and profit 142% YoY driven by a 50% increase in fuel volumes. The company remains well positioned in a growing industrial fuel consumption market and presents a unique option on retail fuel deregulation. Re-iterate BUY with Rp5,000/sh target price, implying 27% upside.
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 27 Maret 2012
AKRA : Walau tren masih turun, namun
stochastic mulai bergerak rebound mengindikasikan potensi kenaikan.
Support : S1 3.975
S2 3.850
Resisten : R1 4.150 R2 4.300
Senin, 26 Maret 2012
Indofood CBP, Still lacking upside catalysts, Macquarie
Event
􀂃
We
analyse ICBP’s FY11A result (released on 20/3) in detail, and take
the
opportunity to
update our investment thesis, earnings forecasts/outlook,
and
valuation. We
maintain our Underperform call, but raise our valuation and
PT
to Rp5,100 from
Rp4,900, and raise our FY12E earnings estimates by 7.2%.
􀂃
While
ICBP is trading only modestly above our fair value estimate, we
believe
the story remains
unexciting on account of the company’s relatively weak
growth prospects,
coupled with its premium operating margins. We view the
stock as a
fully-valued “cash cow” that is likely to continue to tread water,
and
in a growth market,
significantly underperform on a relative basis.
Saham Pilihan Senin, 26 Maret 2012
PNLF : MACD golden cross dan histogram
positif mengindikasikan tren positif kedepan.
Support : S1
136 S2 128
Resisten : R1 144 R2 147
Kamis, 22 Maret 2012
Market strategy, Inflated expectations, CLSA
Inflation risks have heightened in Indonesia on the back of very
aggressive accommodative monetary policy, expectations of a hike in the
subsidized fuel price & firm core inflation. While these concerns have
drawn parallels to India (where inflation pressures have been persistent)
our case study shows structural differences supporting the view that
inflation pressures in Indonesia will be temporary versus chronic.
aggressive accommodative monetary policy, expectations of a hike in the
subsidized fuel price & firm core inflation. While these concerns have
drawn parallels to India (where inflation pressures have been persistent)
our case study shows structural differences supporting the view that
inflation pressures in Indonesia will be temporary versus chronic.
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 22 Maret 2012
ASII : Terbentuk pola rebound setelah
kembali munculnya minat beli ditandai dengan kembali menghijaunya histogram dan
reboundnya stochastic membuka peluang kembali naiknya ASII.
Support : S1
69.850 S2 67.100
Resisten : R1 73.200 R2 74.650
Rabu, 21 Maret 2012
United Tractors, Feb Volume Wrap: A recovery, but tracking lower than guidance in 1Q, JP Morgan
UNTR's 14% outperformance versus the JCI over the last quarter has been
boosted, in our view, by its limited exposure to policy risk and inflation
pressures relative to other blue chips. While growth prospects and
favourable currency leverage still dispose us positively, tighter valuations
now mean that UNTR probably needs to deliver Komatsu sales matching
guidance (9,000-9,500 units) rather than our more conservative 8,000 unit
estimate to open up fresh absolute upside. Maintain OW, Rp 32,500 PT.
boosted, in our view, by its limited exposure to policy risk and inflation
pressures relative to other blue chips. While growth prospects and
favourable currency leverage still dispose us positively, tighter valuations
now mean that UNTR probably needs to deliver Komatsu sales matching
guidance (9,000-9,500 units) rather than our more conservative 8,000 unit
estimate to open up fresh absolute upside. Maintain OW, Rp 32,500 PT.
Selasa, 20 Maret 2012
Indonesian Property, Restraining growth, CLSA
Central Bank’s regulation of 30% min down payment for mortgage will
have more negative impact on demand for the lower income segment,
rather than the mid-up. Some listed developers have exposure to the
mid-low segment, but this is less than 15% of sales. Some developers
have already applied higher DP, hence will experience minimal impact.
To sustain demand, developers may extend payment period for DP or the
instalment period. Sector remains compelling; now at 36% disc to NAV.
have more negative impact on demand for the lower income segment,
rather than the mid-up. Some listed developers have exposure to the
mid-low segment, but this is less than 15% of sales. Some developers
have already applied higher DP, hence will experience minimal impact.
To sustain demand, developers may extend payment period for DP or the
instalment period. Sector remains compelling; now at 36% disc to NAV.
Market Strategy, Driving Conviction, CLSA
At the beginning of the year we based our Conviction List around 3 key
investment drivers for 2012: 1) The return of FDI and competition 2)
Progress on investment & infrastructure 3) The lower cost of capital.
While the JCI has been muted our Conviction List has performed very
strongly YTD. We are OW media, infra, property & cement as they are the
beneficiaries of these tailwinds which continue to play out.
investment drivers for 2012: 1) The return of FDI and competition 2)
Progress on investment & infrastructure 3) The lower cost of capital.
While the JCI has been muted our Conviction List has performed very
strongly YTD. We are OW media, infra, property & cement as they are the
beneficiaries of these tailwinds which continue to play out.
Bumi Resources, Alert: Non-Deal Roadshow Insights: Turning Shareholder Friendlier? - Citi
Generally positive response —The majority of 28 investors we met during the NDR in
UK and Europe last week appeared to be underweight or neutral at best on Bumi
Resources. However, most of the investors warmed up to the company’s main
messages of deleveraging and production ramp up. Hence, the share price is likely to
see a substantial rebound if the company delivers on these key issues.
UK and Europe last week appeared to be underweight or neutral at best on Bumi
Resources. However, most of the investors warmed up to the company’s main
messages of deleveraging and production ramp up. Hence, the share price is likely to
see a substantial rebound if the company delivers on these key issues.
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 20 Maret 2012
BWPT : MACD dan histogram masih dalam
tren penguatan.
Support : S1
1.620 S2 1.580
Resisten : R1
1.720 R2 1.790
Senin, 19 Maret 2012
Indonesia Real Estate, New maximum mortgage LTV of 70%, JP Morgan
Concerned with a potential real estate bubble, Bank of Indonesia has
restricted the maximum mortgage Loan to Total Value (LTV) from 80% to
70%. Banks would need to comply with the rule starting June 15th. We
believe the bulk of Indonesia real estate buyers (for our listed universe of
developers) are mainly affluent, with only a minority using mortgages,
hence the impact on marketing sales should be modest. The rule, in our
view, would only provide modest impact in the short term and hence we
see it as a buying opportunity. Long-term however, this introduces a risk
that rapid increases in ASPs may invite regulatory scrutiny. Our top pick
is SMRA.
restricted the maximum mortgage Loan to Total Value (LTV) from 80% to
70%. Banks would need to comply with the rule starting June 15th. We
believe the bulk of Indonesia real estate buyers (for our listed universe of
developers) are mainly affluent, with only a minority using mortgages,
hence the impact on marketing sales should be modest. The rule, in our
view, would only provide modest impact in the short term and hence we
see it as a buying opportunity. Long-term however, this introduces a risk
that rapid increases in ASPs may invite regulatory scrutiny. Our top pick
is SMRA.
Asean Forum 2012, Asean’s investment trinity, CLSA
You could argue that ASEAN growth and demographics have long been
overlooked in favour of China. Not this year though. CLSA’s Myanmar-Thai
nexus and Asean Arising reports paint the picture of a region buzzing
with young, cheap labour and increasing wealthy consumers. CLSA’s
Asean Forum showcased corporates from economies as divergent as
Singapore and Myanmar and industries as diverse as telecoms and
alcohol. Outlook is mixed for sure, but Asean’s long-term investment
trinity of global brands, fertile FDI and primed domestic consumption
were all well represented.
overlooked in favour of China. Not this year though. CLSA’s Myanmar-Thai
nexus and Asean Arising reports paint the picture of a region buzzing
with young, cheap labour and increasing wealthy consumers. CLSA’s
Asean Forum showcased corporates from economies as divergent as
Singapore and Myanmar and industries as diverse as telecoms and
alcohol. Outlook is mixed for sure, but Asean’s long-term investment
trinity of global brands, fertile FDI and primed domestic consumption
were all well represented.
Jumat, 16 Maret 2012
Indonesia Banks, Reserve Requirement Hike: Ample liquidity but Opportunity Cost, Citi
Bottom-line impact of 2-3% — Bank Indonesia’s (BI) intention to use higher Reserve
Requirment (RR) to combat inflation looks to reduce large banks’ profits by 2-3%
(annualized). Rate hikes on the other hand, favor large, liquid banks. The impact
assumes 300bps hike (same as in Nov 2010) with zero payment. This is the worst case
scenario as BI opted to pay 2.5% on the 300bps increase of Nov 10 (remaining 5% of
Primary Reserves @ 0%). January-end local currency deposits are Rp2319trn and, if
BI does opt for +3% @ 0%, will absorb liquidity of Rp70trn and save BI Rp2.1trn.
Requirment (RR) to combat inflation looks to reduce large banks’ profits by 2-3%
(annualized). Rate hikes on the other hand, favor large, liquid banks. The impact
assumes 300bps hike (same as in Nov 2010) with zero payment. This is the worst case
scenario as BI opted to pay 2.5% on the 300bps increase of Nov 10 (remaining 5% of
Primary Reserves @ 0%). January-end local currency deposits are Rp2319trn and, if
BI does opt for +3% @ 0%, will absorb liquidity of Rp70trn and save BI Rp2.1trn.
AsiaUSA Market strategy, Not just Chindia: Asean arising, CLSA
With 37% of its population under 20, Asean’s labor force is set to grow by
more than 56 million this decade as China’s labor force begins to fall,
setting up the region as the next low-cost manufacturing zone. Rising
disposable incomes will lift 50 million people into the middle class while
13% pa growth in discretionary spending power unleashes a wave of
consumerism. Our top ten Asean-USA picks are: Chevron, Coca-Cola,
Hess, Las Vegas Sands, Mead Johnson, National Oilwell Varco, Philip
Morris International, Starbucks, Western Digital and Yum! Brands.
more than 56 million this decade as China’s labor force begins to fall,
setting up the region as the next low-cost manufacturing zone. Rising
disposable incomes will lift 50 million people into the middle class while
13% pa growth in discretionary spending power unleashes a wave of
consumerism. Our top ten Asean-USA picks are: Chevron, Coca-Cola,
Hess, Las Vegas Sands, Mead Johnson, National Oilwell Varco, Philip
Morris International, Starbucks, Western Digital and Yum! Brands.
Saham Pilihan Jumat 16 Maret 2012
ASRI : MACD berpeluang golden cross
dan histogram mendekati area positif membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support :
S1 600
S2 580
Resisten : R1 620 R2 640
Kamis, 15 Maret 2012
BNI, Expanding capacity, CLSA
Thanks to an improvement in asset quality and strong recovery from its
written-off assets, BBNI managed to record strong net profit growth of
42% YoY in FY11. Coupled with the better asset quality trend, we expect
the bank to record higher pre-impairment profit (PPOP) this year on the
back of lower cost of funds and stronger fee based income. The bank
continues to expand aggressively in the consumer segment where it is
taking market share and building up capacity. Maintain outperform.
written-off assets, BBNI managed to record strong net profit growth of
42% YoY in FY11. Coupled with the better asset quality trend, we expect
the bank to record higher pre-impairment profit (PPOP) this year on the
back of lower cost of funds and stronger fee based income. The bank
continues to expand aggressively in the consumer segment where it is
taking market share and building up capacity. Maintain outperform.
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 15 Maret 2012
ANTM : Stochastic mulai rebound,
begitu juga dengan histogram dan MACD membuka peluang terjadinya penguatan.
Support : S1
1.850 S2 1.800
Resisten : R1 1.920 R2 1.940
Rabu, 14 Maret 2012
Indonesian Banks, Possible tightening, CLSA
Bank Indonesia is considering increasing the reserve requirement (RR)
for Indo banks in response to high inflationary pressure from the planned
fuel price hike. This is an Indonesian-specific issue as other countries in
the region are easing instead of tightening. We estimate minimal impact
from a 100 bps increase in RR for banks under CLSA coverage due to the
current excess liquidity and low yield from FASBI. Moreover, the system’s
liquidity is still abundant. We maintain our BUY call on BBRI and BBNI.
for Indo banks in response to high inflationary pressure from the planned
fuel price hike. This is an Indonesian-specific issue as other countries in
the region are easing instead of tightening. We estimate minimal impact
from a 100 bps increase in RR for banks under CLSA coverage due to the
current excess liquidity and low yield from FASBI. Moreover, the system’s
liquidity is still abundant. We maintain our BUY call on BBRI and BBNI.
Astra International , Right place, wrong time, Macquarie
· We downgrade our
recommendation to Neutral from Outperform; cut our FY12–13E estimates by 6.7%;
and reduce our PT to Rp76k from Rp80k (representing a 15x FY13E PER). Our
downgrade reflects several factors which collectively have made us sufficiently
uncomfortable with the stock’s short term risk/reward profile to downgrade. We
nevertheless remain positive on the long term story, and would look to
re-accumulate in the low 60ks.
· These factors include
the likely material impact of BI down payment (DP) limitations on 2W volumes;
the market share risk posed by Nissan’s upcoming NV200 launch; our existing
expectations (now exacerbated) for ASII’s FY12E earnings growth to slow; and
ASII’s relatively full short/medium term multiples.
·
20%
down payment limitations looking increasingly likely:
Selasa, 13 Maret 2012
United Tractors, Dominates heavy movers, CLSA
As the dominant domestic player in both the heavy-equipment and mining-contracting sectors, United Tractors (UT) will benefit from rising coal demand. Mining remains its key sales driver, while we expect the new land bill to lead to a surge in demand for construction equipment from 2013. Production is gradually rising at its new coal assets, which also provides upside. The company generates more than 25% ROE and we estimate a 67% total shareholder return over 2012-14.
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 13 Maret 2012
ASRI : Stochastic dan histogram masih
pada tren penguatan
Support : S1
580 S2 560
Resisten : R1 610 R2 640
Senin, 12 Maret 2012
Global Markets Outlook and Strategy, JP Morgan
• The economy
Our 2012 global growth forecast remains at an anaemic 2.2%, but PMIs
are suggesting mild upside risk.
• Asset Allocation
We remain long equities, EM and credit against safer assets. Of the six
drivers of the rally, two are now closer to neutral (positions and risk
perceptions), and one has gained (momentum). We analyse the impact of
high relative supply of safe assets, cash and gov’t debt, and conclude
equities and credit need to rally some 6% over the coming 12 months just
to keep pace with rising cash and gov’t debt outstanding. The portfolio
now includes hedges against oil and inflation.
Our 2012 global growth forecast remains at an anaemic 2.2%, but PMIs
are suggesting mild upside risk.
• Asset Allocation
We remain long equities, EM and credit against safer assets. Of the six
drivers of the rally, two are now closer to neutral (positions and risk
perceptions), and one has gained (momentum). We analyse the impact of
high relative supply of safe assets, cash and gov’t debt, and conclude
equities and credit need to rally some 6% over the coming 12 months just
to keep pace with rising cash and gov’t debt outstanding. The portfolio
now includes hedges against oil and inflation.
Indonesia Hard Hat, Solid 2M12 numbers, JP Morgan
Indonesia cement sales volume in 2M12 grew by 19% y/y. Indonesia
cement sales volume in 2M12 grew by 19% y/y to 8.2mn MT. February
demand looks firm, with cement sales volume of 4.1mn MT, flat m/m
and up by 24% y/y. All regions posted strong growth. Kalimantan area
showed the strongest growth, as its cement sales volume grew by 36%
y/y. Assuming no fuel subsidy removal, we view that Indonesia cement
consumption growth for FY12 would likely to be inline with our
forecast of 10% y/y growth.
cement sales volume in 2M12 grew by 19% y/y to 8.2mn MT. February
demand looks firm, with cement sales volume of 4.1mn MT, flat m/m
and up by 24% y/y. All regions posted strong growth. Kalimantan area
showed the strongest growth, as its cement sales volume grew by 36%
y/y. Assuming no fuel subsidy removal, we view that Indonesia cement
consumption growth for FY12 would likely to be inline with our
forecast of 10% y/y growth.
Asean arising, CLSA
J-curves and franchises
With nearly 40% of its population under 20, the Asean labour pool is
surging while China is facing a labour crunch and regulatory risk has
risen in India. FDI flows to the region are already surging. Buying power
is rising with the middle class projected to rise 50% and the number of
wealthy to double over five years. We identify 13 companies building a
business franchise, generating an average annual EVA® spread of 8% and
estimated to provide 70% three-year total returns.
With nearly 40% of its population under 20, the Asean labour pool is
surging while China is facing a labour crunch and regulatory risk has
risen in India. FDI flows to the region are already surging. Buying power
is rising with the middle class projected to rise 50% and the number of
wealthy to double over five years. We identify 13 companies building a
business franchise, generating an average annual EVA® spread of 8% and
estimated to provide 70% three-year total returns.
Saham Pilihan Senin, 12 Maret 2012
ASII : Melanjutkan rekomendasi kami
kemarin, MACD tepat golden cross dan histogram hijau kini berada pada area
positif mengindikasikan masih ada peluang untuk menguat.
Support : S1
69.950 S2 68.850
Resisten : R1 70.850 R2 71.750
Jumat, 09 Maret 2012
Tower Bersama, Towering Along, CLSA
TBIG’s 2011 results were solid with Core NPAT 13% better than our
expectations. While TBIG’s inorganic deal-making grabs the headlines –
the organic operational momentum should not be underestimated. TBIG
added 2,300 new tenancies in 2011 providing a strong platform for 2012
in addition to a strong pipeline of new builds. Finalisation of the ISAT
transaction is the game-changing growth driver. Factoring the deal into
our model we upgrade our target price to 3,850 implying 40% upside.
expectations. While TBIG’s inorganic deal-making grabs the headlines –
the organic operational momentum should not be underestimated. TBIG
added 2,300 new tenancies in 2011 providing a strong platform for 2012
in addition to a strong pipeline of new builds. Finalisation of the ISAT
transaction is the game-changing growth driver. Factoring the deal into
our model we upgrade our target price to 3,850 implying 40% upside.
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 9 Maret 2012
CPIN : Melanjutkan rekomendasi kami
kemarin, CPIN berpeluang melanjutkan penguatan dimana stochastic golden cross
dan MACD juga mulai rebound.
Support : S1 2.650
S2 2.575
Resisten : R1 2.750 R2 2.875
Kamis, 08 Maret 2012
Semen Gresik, New plant nearly completed, Danareksa
Counting down
The new Tuban IV production facility is expected to commence trial operation in March 2012.
The project has been slightly delayed from December 2011, but with capex slightly below budget.
In the first two months, the new plant is expected to run at a 50-60% utilization rate and then
to gradually increase to 80-85% in May 2012 and the following months. This will increase Semen
Gresik’s production by 1.3-1.4 mn tonnes. In the first year, the new plant can be expected to run
at an average 70% utilization rate. The Tonasa plant, meanwhile, is being delayed to July 2012
with the power plant to be completed in October 2012. The capex for Tonasa will increase slightly
due to this delay from IDC, translating to Rp20-40bn. All in all, we expect additional capacity of
about 2.1mn tonnes in FY12 from these two new plants.
The new Tuban IV production facility is expected to commence trial operation in March 2012.
The project has been slightly delayed from December 2011, but with capex slightly below budget.
In the first two months, the new plant is expected to run at a 50-60% utilization rate and then
to gradually increase to 80-85% in May 2012 and the following months. This will increase Semen
Gresik’s production by 1.3-1.4 mn tonnes. In the first year, the new plant can be expected to run
at an average 70% utilization rate. The Tonasa plant, meanwhile, is being delayed to July 2012
with the power plant to be completed in October 2012. The capex for Tonasa will increase slightly
due to this delay from IDC, translating to Rp20-40bn. All in all, we expect additional capacity of
about 2.1mn tonnes in FY12 from these two new plants.
Tower Bersama, FY11 results show a strong growth trajectory, though not quite as strong as we had forecast, Credit Suisse
● TBIG’s revenue grew 44.5% YoY for FY11 as a whole. EBITDA
rose 48.9% YoY and net profit grew 45.2% YoY. Even though this
represents a high growth rate, the result was less strong than we
had anticipated, and TBIG missed our FY11 revenue, EBITDA
and net profit forecasts by 20.9%, 22.0% and 33.4%, respectively.
● The FY11 figures flow through our model, and we have revised
down our FY12 and FY13 revenue forecasts by 7.3% and 4.9%,
respectively. Our EPS forecasts for FY12 and FY13 have been
revised down by 10.7% and 8.1%, respectively.
● On the other hand, we are still believers in the long-term growth
trajectory of TBIG. Indeed, we expect TBIG to report a doubling of
net profit into FY12 and 29.2% net profit growth into FY13.
● Our DFC-based target price has therefore only been revised down
by 3.4%, from Rp2,900 to Rp2,800. With only 1.8% upside from
current levels we believe TBIG is relatively fairly priced, and we
maintain our NEUTRAL rating relative to the JCI.
rose 48.9% YoY and net profit grew 45.2% YoY. Even though this
represents a high growth rate, the result was less strong than we
had anticipated, and TBIG missed our FY11 revenue, EBITDA
and net profit forecasts by 20.9%, 22.0% and 33.4%, respectively.
● The FY11 figures flow through our model, and we have revised
down our FY12 and FY13 revenue forecasts by 7.3% and 4.9%,
respectively. Our EPS forecasts for FY12 and FY13 have been
revised down by 10.7% and 8.1%, respectively.
● On the other hand, we are still believers in the long-term growth
trajectory of TBIG. Indeed, we expect TBIG to report a doubling of
net profit into FY12 and 29.2% net profit growth into FY13.
● Our DFC-based target price has therefore only been revised down
by 3.4%, from Rp2,900 to Rp2,800. With only 1.8% upside from
current levels we believe TBIG is relatively fairly priced, and we
maintain our NEUTRAL rating relative to the JCI.
Sector outlook, Mining, Resource Nationalism, CLSA
Indonesia has released a Presidential Instruction restricting foreign ownership of mining concessions after 10 years of production to 49%. The rule only affects new generation mining concessions (IUPs) which are governed by the 2009 mining law. It does not affect holders of Contracts of Work which were issued up until 2000 and is not retroactive. We see limited potential impact on existing miners under our coverage including ITMG which is 65% owned by Banpu.
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 8 Maret 2012
CPIN : Terbentuk pola morning doji star
yang mengindikasikan pola penguatan
Support : S1
2.525 S2 2.450
Resisten : R1 2.725 R2 2.875
Rabu, 07 Maret 2012
Kalbe Farma, Management revised its guidance upwards—numbers in line with our estimates, Credit Suisse
● Kalbe’s management has revised its 2012 guidance: it now
expects operating margins of 16.0-16.5% and earnings growth of
10-15% YoY, on the back of 18-20% revenue growth YoY.
Previously, during an analyst meeting in mid-Feb, management
had guided for 15-20% YoY revenue growth for 2012, with
operating margins of 15-16% and earnings growth of 5-10% YoY.
● Management said that the upward revisions were based on the
encouraging results in the first two months of this year, while it is
optimistic about price increases in 1H12. Management also sees
an improving trend for the newly launched products.
● Our forecasts are in line with management guidance. We expect
19% YoY revenue growth in 2012, with operating margins of
16.2% and net profit growth of 8% YoY.
● Our DCF-based target price of Rp3,100 implies 19.9x 2012E P/E,
with 27% estimated earnings growth over the next two years. The
stock has underperformed the JCI: it has only gained 2% YTD,
while the JCI has gained 4%. We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating.
expects operating margins of 16.0-16.5% and earnings growth of
10-15% YoY, on the back of 18-20% revenue growth YoY.
Previously, during an analyst meeting in mid-Feb, management
had guided for 15-20% YoY revenue growth for 2012, with
operating margins of 15-16% and earnings growth of 5-10% YoY.
● Management said that the upward revisions were based on the
encouraging results in the first two months of this year, while it is
optimistic about price increases in 1H12. Management also sees
an improving trend for the newly launched products.
● Our forecasts are in line with management guidance. We expect
19% YoY revenue growth in 2012, with operating margins of
16.2% and net profit growth of 8% YoY.
● Our DCF-based target price of Rp3,100 implies 19.9x 2012E P/E,
with 27% estimated earnings growth over the next two years. The
stock has underperformed the JCI: it has only gained 2% YTD,
while the JCI has gained 4%. We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating.
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk, Strong FY11A earnings, Credit Suisse
● PTBA reported strong net profit growth in FY11 of 54% YoY to
Rp3,085 bn. However, this is 5% below our expectation and 8%
below consensus due to higher-than-expected in COGS and G&A
expenses.
● Sales revenue was Rp10.6 tn, up 34% YoY, on higher sales volume
and ASP, just 2% below our expectation. Coal sales volume was
13.5 mn tonnes in FY11, up 4%, in line with expectations. The
average selling price was up 33% to US$89/t in FY11.
● The company was able to grow output at a six-year CAGR of
6.3%, despite railway transportation constraints, suggesting that
the state-owned railway company, is improving capacity. The
target is to increase the existing railway capacity to 22.7 mn tpa
by 2014. The new railway is projected to start operations in 2015.
● We retain OUTPERFORM on PTBA with a target price of Rp25,000,
based on a 40% premium to the average sector P/E of 8.4x, for its
significant reserves number. We believe it will continue its volume
growth by improving the existing railway capacity.
Rp3,085 bn. However, this is 5% below our expectation and 8%
below consensus due to higher-than-expected in COGS and G&A
expenses.
● Sales revenue was Rp10.6 tn, up 34% YoY, on higher sales volume
and ASP, just 2% below our expectation. Coal sales volume was
13.5 mn tonnes in FY11, up 4%, in line with expectations. The
average selling price was up 33% to US$89/t in FY11.
● The company was able to grow output at a six-year CAGR of
6.3%, despite railway transportation constraints, suggesting that
the state-owned railway company, is improving capacity. The
target is to increase the existing railway capacity to 22.7 mn tpa
by 2014. The new railway is projected to start operations in 2015.
● We retain OUTPERFORM on PTBA with a target price of Rp25,000,
based on a 40% premium to the average sector P/E of 8.4x, for its
significant reserves number. We believe it will continue its volume
growth by improving the existing railway capacity.
Selasa, 06 Maret 2012
BRI, Focusing on loan quality, CLSA
BBRI reported strong net profit growth of 31.5% YoY for FY11, 10%
above consensus estimates, thanks to low impairment expenses and high
recovery from written off assets. The bank claimed to be in consolidation
period last year causing its loans growth (17% YoY) to be below the
industry’s 25% YoY. We are projecting higher pre-impairment profit this
year on the back of higher loan growth and further improvement in asset
quality. We upgrade our 2012CL by 10.5% and maintained our TP at
Rp8,500/share. BUY.
above consensus estimates, thanks to low impairment expenses and high
recovery from written off assets. The bank claimed to be in consolidation
period last year causing its loans growth (17% YoY) to be below the
industry’s 25% YoY. We are projecting higher pre-impairment profit this
year on the back of higher loan growth and further improvement in asset
quality. We upgrade our 2012CL by 10.5% and maintained our TP at
Rp8,500/share. BUY.
ABM Investama Subsidiary Cipta Kridatama Secured a US$ 300 Million Mining Contract with PT Riau Baraharum
Jakarta, March 5, 2012 – PT Cipta Kridatama,
a subsidiary of PT ABM Investama Tbk. (IDX: ABMM) that operates in mining
contractor service just signed a new contract with PT Riau Baraharum with value
of around US$ 300 million. PT Riau Baraharum is a subsidiary of PT Permata
Energy Resources, which had obtained legal mining license (PKP2B) and other
licenses including a forest-lending permit in Indragiri Hulu and Indragiri Hilir
regency, Riau province.
With the contract signing, Cipta Kridatama will provide mining contract services to PT Riau Baraharum for the next five years with scope of work including land clearing, overburden removal, and heavy machinery rentals.
With the contract signing, Cipta Kridatama will provide mining contract services to PT Riau Baraharum for the next five years with scope of work including land clearing, overburden removal, and heavy machinery rentals.
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 6 Maret 2012
BSDE : Tepat seperti diperkirakan kemarin, BSDE berhasil menguat
dan kali ini didukung oleh munculnya indikator bullish parabolic sar masih membuka
peluang berlanjutnya penguatan
Support : S1 1.200
S2 1.160
Resisten : R1 1.250 R2 1.300
Senin, 05 Maret 2012
AKR, Oil, Deregulation Tailwinds, CLSA
Fuel distributor and logistics play AKR is a direct beneficiary of higher fuel prices. The company’s 25% 3 year fuel volume CAGR is driven by unsubsidised fuel sales to industrial customers. AKR is in a prime position to benefit from an eventual end to fuel subsidies in Indonesia and its plans to enter coal logistics create value. Despite its small cap status, AKR has been recognised for its high corporate governance. On the back of these tailwinds we raise our target price to Rp5,000 and rec to BUY.
Saham PIlihan Senin, 5 Maret 2012
BSDE : Stochastic golden cross dan histogram mulai menghijau
membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1 1.150
S2 1.130
Resisten : R1 1.200 R2 1.250
Kamis, 01 Maret 2012
CLSA on the Road, Building the new Batavia
A lower cost of capital, rising FDI inflows and an investment
renaissance, the Land Bill, and the return of confidence are
major drivers of the construction boom in Indonesia. We think
this trend will continue. Our observations highlighted that
Jakarta’s CBD has been bustling. Rising demand, higher rental
rates (up to 20%) and record high occupancy rates have been
evident. We expect at least nine new office towers to come
operational adding 377k sqm in 2012 and 189k sqm next year.
renaissance, the Land Bill, and the return of confidence are
major drivers of the construction boom in Indonesia. We think
this trend will continue. Our observations highlighted that
Jakarta’s CBD has been bustling. Rising demand, higher rental
rates (up to 20%) and record high occupancy rates have been
evident. We expect at least nine new office towers to come
operational adding 377k sqm in 2012 and 189k sqm next year.
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 1 Maret 2012
ADRO : Stochastic golden cross dan histogram mulai menghijau
membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1 1.890
S2 1.860
Resisten : R1 1.960 R2 2.025
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