ASRI : Terbentuk pola rebound didukung stochastic yang golden
cross dan volume yang meningkat membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support : S1 455 S2 425
Resisten : R1
485 R2 500
Jumat, 29 Juni 2012
Kamis, 28 Juni 2012
United Tractors, A challenging year, Danareksa
FY12 sales volume forecast lowered to 9,000 units
Sales of Komatsu rebounded 3% mom to 773 units in May 2012. By sector, the mining accounted
for 62% of the total sales volume, followed by the agro (18%), the construction (13%) and the
forestry (7%). Komatsu’s market share, however, was lower than in 2011 (45% in 5M12 vs 49% in
FY11). This owed to the fierce competition in the heavy equipment industry, especially the 20-ton
class excavator segment (40% of heavy equipment sales volume and 20% of heavy equipment
sales value). On account of this stiff competition, we trim our FY12-13 sales volume forecasts by
5.3-9.6% to 9,000-9,450 units. We feel more comfortable with these numbers, especially since the
highest monthly sales so far this year is the 821 units recorded in March. Moreover, the sales volume
in the last month of the year, December, is typically low. At the same time, we also foresee lower
margins as UT battles the competition through its promotional and financing schemes, although
a larger contribution from after-sales services should help support its margins.
Sales of Komatsu rebounded 3% mom to 773 units in May 2012. By sector, the mining accounted
for 62% of the total sales volume, followed by the agro (18%), the construction (13%) and the
forestry (7%). Komatsu’s market share, however, was lower than in 2011 (45% in 5M12 vs 49% in
FY11). This owed to the fierce competition in the heavy equipment industry, especially the 20-ton
class excavator segment (40% of heavy equipment sales volume and 20% of heavy equipment
sales value). On account of this stiff competition, we trim our FY12-13 sales volume forecasts by
5.3-9.6% to 9,000-9,450 units. We feel more comfortable with these numbers, especially since the
highest monthly sales so far this year is the 821 units recorded in March. Moreover, the sales volume
in the last month of the year, December, is typically low. At the same time, we also foresee lower
margins as UT battles the competition through its promotional and financing schemes, although
a larger contribution from after-sales services should help support its margins.
Indo Auto, Short term pain, CLSA
We checked with dealers and financing companies to see how things are
post higher down payment regulation (June 15). While sales in 2W had
weakened, we saw loopholes that will help softening the blow. Our
channel-checks also conclude that there is no standout among the new
low-MPV models, but we think Toyota can maintain dominance, given its
strong resale value and good after-sales services (vast dist. network).
While headwinds exist, the auto market had endured multiple crises. We
maintain O-PF on Astra, now at 14.2 PE12 and 12.4x PE13.
post higher down payment regulation (June 15). While sales in 2W had
weakened, we saw loopholes that will help softening the blow. Our
channel-checks also conclude that there is no standout among the new
low-MPV models, but we think Toyota can maintain dominance, given its
strong resale value and good after-sales services (vast dist. network).
While headwinds exist, the auto market had endured multiple crises. We
maintain O-PF on Astra, now at 14.2 PE12 and 12.4x PE13.
Global Economy - Monthly Review, Credit Suisse
The slow get slower; so do
most of the rest
We have revised down our 2012 and 2013 global GDP growth expectations to
3.3% and 3.8% from our April 3.6% and 4.2% estimates, respectively. The
downward revisions are broad-based across both developed and emerging
markets.
While we continue to hold the view that global GDP growth will be stronger in
the second half than the first, the ongoing downswing in cyclical momentum is
becoming more concerning as the slow path of many economies gets even
slower. Risks to our outlook still seem tilted to the downside barring a more
prompt and definitive resolution of Europe’s financial architecture crisis.
most of the rest
We have revised down our 2012 and 2013 global GDP growth expectations to
3.3% and 3.8% from our April 3.6% and 4.2% estimates, respectively. The
downward revisions are broad-based across both developed and emerging
markets.
While we continue to hold the view that global GDP growth will be stronger in
the second half than the first, the ongoing downswing in cyclical momentum is
becoming more concerning as the slow path of many economies gets even
slower. Risks to our outlook still seem tilted to the downside barring a more
prompt and definitive resolution of Europe’s financial architecture crisis.
Senin, 25 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Senin, 25 Juni 2012
ASRI : Stochastic mulai memasuki area
oversold sehingga tekanan diperkirakan sudah berkurang dan berpotensi rebound
dalam waktu dekat.
Support : S1 490 S2 460
Resisten : R1 510
R2 520
Jumat, 22 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 22 Juni 2012
BUMI : Minat beli terlihat cukup kuat dan berpotensi berlanjut,
namun kondisi market yang buruk dapat menekan saham ini kembali untuk sementara.
Support : S1 1.160 S2 970
Resisten : R1
1.310 R2 1.410
Kamis, 21 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 21 Juni 2012
BUMI : MACD golden cross dan histogram
mulai positif mengindikasikan tren yang mulai positif.
Support : S1 960 S2 750
Resisten : R1 1.300
R2 1.400
Selasa, 19 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 19 Juni 2012
ADRO : MACD golden cross dan histogram positif didukung oleh
munculnya indicator bullish parabolic sar membuka peluang dimulainya tren naik
Support : S1 1.190
S2 1.040
Resisten : R1 1.310
R2 1.410
Selasa, 12 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 12 Juni 2012
membuka peluang terjadinya tren naik.
Support : S1 1.180 S2 1.120
Resisten : R1 1.270 R2 1.300
Rekomendasi : Buy on Weakness
Senin, 11 Juni 2012
Ciputra Surya, Time for day in the sun, CLSA
Ciputra Surya (CTRS IJ) continued to record robust marketing sales
achieving 41.3% of FY12 target as of April 2012 number. Despite strong
performance of many successful launches in untapped regions, Surabaya
residential and commercial projects remains as CTRS’ backbone with
56.3% marketing sales contribution. Toll road expansion in Greater
Surabaya provides more connectivity and serves as further catalyst for
property price appreciation. We initiate coverage on CTRS with TP of
Rp2,500/sh, implying 40% discount to our estimated NAV. BUY.
achieving 41.3% of FY12 target as of April 2012 number. Despite strong
performance of many successful launches in untapped regions, Surabaya
residential and commercial projects remains as CTRS’ backbone with
56.3% marketing sales contribution. Toll road expansion in Greater
Surabaya provides more connectivity and serves as further catalyst for
property price appreciation. We initiate coverage on CTRS with TP of
Rp2,500/sh, implying 40% discount to our estimated NAV. BUY.
Bakrieland, Excess Baggage, CLSA
ELTY posted net loss of Rp19bn (US$2m) in FY11, mainly due to high
operational expenses and interest expenses relating to its toll road
business under its subsidiary, Bakrie Toll Road (BTR). ELTY targets lower
marketing sales this year with launches from its residential and
commercial projects. ELTY has planned to spin-off BTR since last year, but
it hasn’t able to pull it off. Only 1 out of 4 toll road projects under BTR is
operational, and the average daily traffic of 11k vehicle is still way below
management expectation due. We downgrade ELTY to U-PF with TP:
Rp85/share.
operational expenses and interest expenses relating to its toll road
business under its subsidiary, Bakrie Toll Road (BTR). ELTY targets lower
marketing sales this year with launches from its residential and
commercial projects. ELTY has planned to spin-off BTR since last year, but
it hasn’t able to pull it off. Only 1 out of 4 toll road projects under BTR is
operational, and the average daily traffic of 11k vehicle is still way below
management expectation due. We downgrade ELTY to U-PF with TP:
Rp85/share.
Indo Property, Sector Outlook, High Beta Play, CLSA
Property sales are still going strong, but sector has been under pressure.
As real asset, property is inflation-hedge, but stocks are high beta play,
correlated to interest rate movement. Rising policy risk may deter future
FDI but consumption growth story remains the alluring factor. We are
cautious on currency and its implication, but maintain positive view for
long term. Sector has become more investable due to growing size, and
now cheaper due to recent correction. Top picks: BSDE and CTRS.
As real asset, property is inflation-hedge, but stocks are high beta play,
correlated to interest rate movement. Rising policy risk may deter future
FDI but consumption growth story remains the alluring factor. We are
cautious on currency and its implication, but maintain positive view for
long term. Sector has become more investable due to growing size, and
now cheaper due to recent correction. Top picks: BSDE and CTRS.
Summarecon, Raising Value, CLSA
We raised our NAV estimate for SMRA to Rp2,000/sh on the back of
additional land bank in Serpong and Bekasi. We also raised our profit
forecasts for FY12/13 by 7.5% to reflect lower operating expenses.
SMRA is ramping up its Bekasi development, with ASP at Rp4m psm when
flyover is completed; closing the gap with Serpong’s ASP of Rp4.5m psm.
SMRA will also do a non-preemptive rights issuance in the future to buy
more land bank. Stock now trades at 26% disc to NAV. Maintain O-PF.
additional land bank in Serpong and Bekasi. We also raised our profit
forecasts for FY12/13 by 7.5% to reflect lower operating expenses.
SMRA is ramping up its Bekasi development, with ASP at Rp4m psm when
flyover is completed; closing the gap with Serpong’s ASP of Rp4.5m psm.
SMRA will also do a non-preemptive rights issuance in the future to buy
more land bank. Stock now trades at 26% disc to NAV. Maintain O-PF.
Jumat, 08 Juni 2012
Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Visit Note: Maintaining Guidance, Citi
Overcorrected to 2std below mean with price -23% (YTD) — The market has, in our
opinion, over reacted to weak micro loan growth considering 1) its strong network that
can be energized to revive micro loans, 2) strong CASA growth that continues to
support earning asset growth at low costs, and 3) declining NPLs supporting lower
credit cost. While 2012F may remain relatively subdued, BBRI’s franchise is robust
enough to deliver 25% pa book value growth. Our 2012F base case assumed a 50bps
decline in loan yield and another 100bps decline will impact earnings by 16%.
opinion, over reacted to weak micro loan growth considering 1) its strong network that
can be energized to revive micro loans, 2) strong CASA growth that continues to
support earning asset growth at low costs, and 3) declining NPLs supporting lower
credit cost. While 2012F may remain relatively subdued, BBRI’s franchise is robust
enough to deliver 25% pa book value growth. Our 2012F base case assumed a 50bps
decline in loan yield and another 100bps decline will impact earnings by 16%.
Indonesia Strategy, Still Like Supply Side, CLSA
Emerging markets have struggled in May and Indonesia has
underperformed relatively. One key reason is IDR pressure. A confluence
of aggressive monetary policy, BI’s late moves to intervene and
heightened “policy risk” has made the IDR (a confidence barometer)
vulnerable. Against a volatile backdrop we maintain our strategy of
BUYing the ‘Supply Side’ of Indonesia’s economy given high earnings
visibility & domestic business models less exposed to the global malaise.
underperformed relatively. One key reason is IDR pressure. A confluence
of aggressive monetary policy, BI’s late moves to intervene and
heightened “policy risk” has made the IDR (a confidence barometer)
vulnerable. Against a volatile backdrop we maintain our strategy of
BUYing the ‘Supply Side’ of Indonesia’s economy given high earnings
visibility & domestic business models less exposed to the global malaise.
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 8 Juni 2012
BWPT : Minat beli masih tinggi dan
dapat kembali mengangkat harga keatas
Support : S1
1.320 S2 1.300
Resisten : R1
1.370 R2 1.400
Selasa, 05 Juni 2012
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 5 Juni 2012
AKRA : Walau masih berpotensi tertekan
namun minat beli masih mengimbangi
Support : S1 3.100
S2 3.050
Resisten : R1 3.300
R2 3.350
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