What stood out in the numbers? Pretty much in line — Astra’s full-year 2011 net
profit reached Rp17.8trn, up 24% YoY, 3% above ours and full-year consensus
respectively. 4Q11 net income reached Rp4.3trn, down 10% QoQ but up 8% YoY
mainly due to the Financial Service divisions and UNTR (down 17% and 14% QoQ)
coupled with the impact of the Thai floods that caused 4W volume to fall 10% QoQ.
Equity income from subsidiaries took a hit in 4Q (down 14% QoQ due to the Thai flood
impact) as contributions from Toyota Astra, Daihatsu and Isuzu declined by 18%, 15%
and 21% QoQ respectively (see figures 5-7 for a detailed breakdown).
What drove the numbers? Pretty strong performance by auto dealerships due to
higher margins — Despite lower 4W volume and flat 2W volume QoQ, 4Q11 auto
division net profit only fell by 7% (to Rp2.1trn) as operating margin improved to 4.0%
from 3.5% in 3Q11, which we believe is due to fewer discounts as the company
introduced new Avanza and Xenia models. On a full-year basis, however, UNTR and
Financial Services recorded 52% and 26% YoY growth in net profit contribution to Astra
and accounts for 20% and 19% of Astra’s full-year consolidated net profit.
Impact on fuel price hike — The subsidized fuel price hike is actually better vs
limitation of fuel subsidy for Astra’s 4W volume as the increase will only be 33% (fuel
price hike from Rp4,500 to Rp6,000/litre for everyone) vs 90% (fuel limitation - from
4,500 to Rp8,500/litre market price for private car users). However, the impact on 2W
volume is more as 2W volume also needs to pay for higher prices vs fuel limitation
where 2W volume continues to receive subsidized prices. Our analysis on 4W and 2W
volume indicates that volume saw no substantial impact when fuel prices were hiked by
30% (Figures 1&2). Automotive volumes tend to be impacted more by higher interest
rates than by fuel price hikes.
Management will propose a 10:1 stock split at the EGM in May-12.
Download file : JOSN
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