Event
1Q12 results wrap for banks under coverage except for BNI, which has yet to
report its results.
Impact
Overall impression: Headline net profit growth in 1Q12 was in-line with our
estimates, up 13% YoY and up 22% if we exclude Garuda recovery at
Mandiri. Pre-provision profit, however, was weaker than expected (mainly in
large banks) from a combination of NIM and cost pressure. Loan-loss
provisions, which were much lower than expected, were the main driver for inline
profit growth. We would rank the results from best to worst as follows:
BTPN, Panin, Mandiri, BCA, Danamon, Bank BJB, and BRI.
Selasa, 08 Mei 2012
Indonesia Banks Big Picture, 1Q12 Performance Shows Strong Trends,Citi
BMRI and mid-sized banks deliver better results — Indonesian banks maintained
their YoY growth momentum in 1Q12 as balance sheets continued to strengthen. Net
profit growth for 8 banks (NP +13% reported and +25% ex Garuda write-back in 1Q11)
was driven by loan growth, and lower deposit rates and credit costs. Of the big banks,
BMRI’s revenue growth was the strongest, whereas BBRI continued to lag. Smaller
banks also benefitted from lower deposit costs. BMRI and BBNI remain our top Buys
and BBCA is still our top Sell. BBNI’s 1Q results are due later this month, in which we
expect moderating growth at the operating level due to slower loan growth.
their YoY growth momentum in 1Q12 as balance sheets continued to strengthen. Net
profit growth for 8 banks (NP +13% reported and +25% ex Garuda write-back in 1Q11)
was driven by loan growth, and lower deposit rates and credit costs. Of the big banks,
BMRI’s revenue growth was the strongest, whereas BBRI continued to lag. Smaller
banks also benefitted from lower deposit costs. BMRI and BBNI remain our top Buys
and BBCA is still our top Sell. BBNI’s 1Q results are due later this month, in which we
expect moderating growth at the operating level due to slower loan growth.
UNTR Downgrade, Early warning signs, YU
Our recent channel check reveals early signs of pressure in the heavy
equipment business from increasing competition. While we do not yet
see a major earnings downside risk at this stage, the generally riskier
environment warrants a valuation de-rating.
We cut our 2012-13 estimates by
5-6% on lower sales and margins.
Target price is lowered to Rp26,000
(based on lower target P/E of 11.6x,
-1SD from the 3-year mean) to reflect
the stock’s higher overall risk due to
increasing competition and exposure
to the softening coal price.
Downgrade from Neutral to
Underperform.
equipment business from increasing competition. While we do not yet
see a major earnings downside risk at this stage, the generally riskier
environment warrants a valuation de-rating.
We cut our 2012-13 estimates by
5-6% on lower sales and margins.
Target price is lowered to Rp26,000
(based on lower target P/E of 11.6x,
-1SD from the 3-year mean) to reflect
the stock’s higher overall risk due to
increasing competition and exposure
to the softening coal price.
Downgrade from Neutral to
Underperform.
Jumat, 04 Mei 2012
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 4 Mei 2012
ADHI : Bullish parabolic sar kembali muncul didukung menghijaunya
kembali histogram dan volume yang tinggi membuka peluang penguatan lanjutan.
Support : S1 980 S2 930
Resisten : R1 1.040
R2 1.100
Kamis, 03 Mei 2012
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 3 Mei 2012
MACD rebound berpeluang golden cross membuka peluang
penguatan lanjutan.
Support : S1 72.800
S2 71.850
Resisten : R1 75.200
R2 76.750
Kamis, 26 April 2012
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk, 1Q results: 29% loan growth, seeking a solution to variable bond holdings, JP Morgan
BMRI’s 1Q profit came in at Rp3.4T, in line with our estimate and slightly
ahead of consensus. We see moves to reduce variable bond exposure as a
positive, but wonder whether it is premature to price upside on that count
into the stock price; hence, we maintain our Dec-12 Rp7,250 PT.
Healthy results: At Rp3.4T, BMRI’s 1Q FY11 PAT was up 10% q/q
and came in 4% ahead of our estimate. Adjusted for one-off recoveries
last year, PAT grew by 39% y/y. Growth was driven by volumes – loans
grew by 29% y/y (in line with JPME), while margins (NIM 5.65%) have
been rangebound over the past five quarters. As 1Q PAT was 25% of
FY12E consensus, it might result in mild upside to estimates.
ahead of consensus. We see moves to reduce variable bond exposure as a
positive, but wonder whether it is premature to price upside on that count
into the stock price; hence, we maintain our Dec-12 Rp7,250 PT.
Healthy results: At Rp3.4T, BMRI’s 1Q FY11 PAT was up 10% q/q
and came in 4% ahead of our estimate. Adjusted for one-off recoveries
last year, PAT grew by 39% y/y. Growth was driven by volumes – loans
grew by 29% y/y (in line with JPME), while margins (NIM 5.65%) have
been rangebound over the past five quarters. As 1Q PAT was 25% of
FY12E consensus, it might result in mild upside to estimates.
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