We attended an analyst briefing hosted by PTBA’s corporate secretary and investor relations team. Key takeaways are 1Q12 production is likely at the lower end of our estimates and probably disappoint consensus at c. 3mt. On the plus side, domestic prices are locked in at an average US$87/t (+3% yoy), in line with our estimate. The company is still adamant on winning back concessions issued by the Lahat regency in South Sumatra, including Adaro’s MIP concession.
Tampilkan postingan dengan label PTBA. Tampilkan semua postingan
Tampilkan postingan dengan label PTBA. Tampilkan semua postingan
Kamis, 19 April 2012
Rabu, 07 Maret 2012
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk, Strong FY11A earnings, Credit Suisse
● PTBA reported strong net profit growth in FY11 of 54% YoY to
Rp3,085 bn. However, this is 5% below our expectation and 8%
below consensus due to higher-than-expected in COGS and G&A
expenses.
● Sales revenue was Rp10.6 tn, up 34% YoY, on higher sales volume
and ASP, just 2% below our expectation. Coal sales volume was
13.5 mn tonnes in FY11, up 4%, in line with expectations. The
average selling price was up 33% to US$89/t in FY11.
● The company was able to grow output at a six-year CAGR of
6.3%, despite railway transportation constraints, suggesting that
the state-owned railway company, is improving capacity. The
target is to increase the existing railway capacity to 22.7 mn tpa
by 2014. The new railway is projected to start operations in 2015.
● We retain OUTPERFORM on PTBA with a target price of Rp25,000,
based on a 40% premium to the average sector P/E of 8.4x, for its
significant reserves number. We believe it will continue its volume
growth by improving the existing railway capacity.
Rp3,085 bn. However, this is 5% below our expectation and 8%
below consensus due to higher-than-expected in COGS and G&A
expenses.
● Sales revenue was Rp10.6 tn, up 34% YoY, on higher sales volume
and ASP, just 2% below our expectation. Coal sales volume was
13.5 mn tonnes in FY11, up 4%, in line with expectations. The
average selling price was up 33% to US$89/t in FY11.
● The company was able to grow output at a six-year CAGR of
6.3%, despite railway transportation constraints, suggesting that
the state-owned railway company, is improving capacity. The
target is to increase the existing railway capacity to 22.7 mn tpa
by 2014. The new railway is projected to start operations in 2015.
● We retain OUTPERFORM on PTBA with a target price of Rp25,000,
based on a 40% premium to the average sector P/E of 8.4x, for its
significant reserves number. We believe it will continue its volume
growth by improving the existing railway capacity.
Senin, 13 Februari 2012
Bukit Asam, One Track Mine, CLSA
We attended a site visit to South Sumatra last week visiting PTBA’s mine,
river port and rail infrastructure. PTBA is one of the lowest cost producers
in Indonesia with a highly mechanised operation and low mining strip
ratio. The stock has been an early outperformer in 2012 up 21% ytd. We
raise our target price to Rp23,500/sh following a re-rating of cyclical
equities. We retain our Outperform call but as the stock now only offers
12% upside to our fair value would prefer to buy on any weakness.
Mechanised mining
river port and rail infrastructure. PTBA is one of the lowest cost producers
in Indonesia with a highly mechanised operation and low mining strip
ratio. The stock has been an early outperformer in 2012 up 21% ytd. We
raise our target price to Rp23,500/sh following a re-rating of cyclical
equities. We retain our Outperform call but as the stock now only offers
12% upside to our fair value would prefer to buy on any weakness.
Mechanised mining
Langganan:
Postingan (Atom)