Looming regulatory risks have caused market concern on Astra’s future
earnings despite a sterling FY11 result. Our worst case scenario points to
a 15% downside risk to its earnings due to these risks. However, our
best case scenario points to a 21% upside. We also believe Astra can
maintain its dominance; it is an incumbent play, but still an aggressive
one. Future upside to come if demand unleashes on auto and as UT’s
business expansion unfolds. O-PF, at 13.5x PE12 and 11.8x PE13.
Selasa, 28 Februari 2012
Astra International, Sell into strength, Credit Suisse
● ASII’s 4Q11A earnings were up by 9% YoY, down 10% QoQ, with
FY11A net income up 24% YoY (3% ahead of consensus and 3%
below our expectations).
● ASII’s auto and agri divisions’ FY11A earnings came 2.8% and
6.8% below our expectations, supported largely by heavy
equipment (UNTR). ASII’s FY11A results provide further evidence
indicating that much of its performance has been attributed from
UNTR. Net net, we tweak up FY12E earnings forecasts by 1%
and FY13E earnings forecasts down by 1%.
● We see the risk of technical rebound as: (1) ASII’s share price has
dropped 7.2% YTD, 13.5% from YTD peak and underperformed
JCI by 8.1%YTD, (2) ASII is looking to do 1:10 stock split.
● We prefer to wait for potential further share price correction
particularly given potential fuel price hike, which we believe will
offer better entry points. We maintain our target price of
Rp65,890, based on SOTP, implying 14x 12E P/E.
FY11A net income up 24% YoY (3% ahead of consensus and 3%
below our expectations).
● ASII’s auto and agri divisions’ FY11A earnings came 2.8% and
6.8% below our expectations, supported largely by heavy
equipment (UNTR). ASII’s FY11A results provide further evidence
indicating that much of its performance has been attributed from
UNTR. Net net, we tweak up FY12E earnings forecasts by 1%
and FY13E earnings forecasts down by 1%.
● We see the risk of technical rebound as: (1) ASII’s share price has
dropped 7.2% YTD, 13.5% from YTD peak and underperformed
JCI by 8.1%YTD, (2) ASII is looking to do 1:10 stock split.
● We prefer to wait for potential further share price correction
particularly given potential fuel price hike, which we believe will
offer better entry points. We maintain our target price of
Rp65,890, based on SOTP, implying 14x 12E P/E.
Astra International (ASII.JK), No Surprises on 4Q Results, Citi
What stood out in the numbers? Pretty much in line — Astra’s full-year 2011 net
profit reached Rp17.8trn, up 24% YoY, 3% above ours and full-year consensus
respectively. 4Q11 net income reached Rp4.3trn, down 10% QoQ but up 8% YoY
mainly due to the Financial Service divisions and UNTR (down 17% and 14% QoQ)
coupled with the impact of the Thai floods that caused 4W volume to fall 10% QoQ.
Equity income from subsidiaries took a hit in 4Q (down 14% QoQ due to the Thai flood
impact) as contributions from Toyota Astra, Daihatsu and Isuzu declined by 18%, 15%
and 21% QoQ respectively (see figures 5-7 for a detailed breakdown).
profit reached Rp17.8trn, up 24% YoY, 3% above ours and full-year consensus
respectively. 4Q11 net income reached Rp4.3trn, down 10% QoQ but up 8% YoY
mainly due to the Financial Service divisions and UNTR (down 17% and 14% QoQ)
coupled with the impact of the Thai floods that caused 4W volume to fall 10% QoQ.
Equity income from subsidiaries took a hit in 4Q (down 14% QoQ due to the Thai flood
impact) as contributions from Toyota Astra, Daihatsu and Isuzu declined by 18%, 15%
and 21% QoQ respectively (see figures 5-7 for a detailed breakdown).
COMPANY ALERT, Jasa Marga, Inflation hedge, Deutsche Bank
Higher inflation following fuel price hike
The government plans to increase fuel price from 1st April 2012 (subject to
Parliament's approval) in order to prevent the budget deficit from exceeding
the maximum threshold 3% of GDP (prescribed by the law) following global
oil price rise to >US$120/bbn. Based on Bank of Indonesia (BI)'s analysis,
they estimate that inflation could reach 7% post the fuel price hike with
base case assumption of Rp1,500 (+33%) increase in fuel price.
The government plans to increase fuel price from 1st April 2012 (subject to
Parliament's approval) in order to prevent the budget deficit from exceeding
the maximum threshold 3% of GDP (prescribed by the law) following global
oil price rise to >US$120/bbn. Based on Bank of Indonesia (BI)'s analysis,
they estimate that inflation could reach 7% post the fuel price hike with
base case assumption of Rp1,500 (+33%) increase in fuel price.
Saham Pilihan Selasa, 28 Februari 2012
UNVR : Terbentuk pola hammer didukung
stochastic yang godlen cross dan histogram yang menghijau membuka peluang
terjadi penguatan.
Support : S1
18.500 S2 17.750
Resisten : R1
19.050 R2
19.500
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