As Indonesia’s middle class expands rapidly, they are willing
spend more to avoid muddy floor or other inconveniences when
shopping. Thousands of wet markets are disappearing as a
result from the transition. Take Benhil for example, the street
is only 1.4 km long road but packed with a traditional market,
at least four mini markets and three convenience stores. During
our visit, we saw heavy traffic at Seven Eleven and Indomaret
behind CLSA office.
Jumat, 10 Februari 2012
INDONESIA RATE CUT – Very aggressive, CLSA
Bank Indonesia cut its policy rate by 25bp to
5.75%.This was an aggressive move since it
was combined with a 25bp cut in the floor of
the interest rate corridor. Bank Indonesia has
effectively cut rates by 150bp over the last four
to five months.
BI cut the policy rate by 75bp in 4Q11 to 6%. It
then cut the overnight deposit facility (Fasbi
rate) by 50bp to 4%. This is the floor of the
interest rate corridor, with the roof represented
by the overnight lending facility at 6.75%.
5.75%.This was an aggressive move since it
was combined with a 25bp cut in the floor of
the interest rate corridor. Bank Indonesia has
effectively cut rates by 150bp over the last four
to five months.
BI cut the policy rate by 75bp in 4Q11 to 6%. It
then cut the overnight deposit facility (Fasbi
rate) by 50bp to 4%. This is the floor of the
interest rate corridor, with the roof represented
by the overnight lending facility at 6.75%.
Indonesia Real Estate Property, price leaders, JP Morgan
Indonesia Real Estate Property, price leaders
We had meetings with several real estate firms and identified Alam
Sutera and Summarecon Agung as price leaders, due to their brands,
good location and access (and hence higher pricing power, as their real
estate tends to be the first choice of middle-upper-income buyers). We
think price leaders should trade at a lower discount to NAV than peers,
as they are price makers and should therefore have more stable
marketing sales during a downturn in the economy.
We had meetings with several real estate firms and identified Alam
Sutera and Summarecon Agung as price leaders, due to their brands,
good location and access (and hence higher pricing power, as their real
estate tends to be the first choice of middle-upper-income buyers). We
think price leaders should trade at a lower discount to NAV than peers,
as they are price makers and should therefore have more stable
marketing sales during a downturn in the economy.
Indonesian strategy, Not so surprising rate cut, Macquarie
Indonesian
strategy
Not so surprising
rate cut
Event
§
Bank
Indonesia (BI) decided to cut its BI rate today by 25bps to
5.75%
vs. consensus
expectations of no rate cut. The signal for further easing
was
provided last month
on 17 January when BI decided to bring down the lower
band of the interest
rate corridor by 50bps. The primary reason for the current
rate cut is to
provide additional stimulus for the domestic economy given
the
slowdown in the
global economy.
Impact
§
More
liquidity to the system. The overnight
interbank rate will decline to
~3.75% (5.75% less
200bp) from its previous 4.0%, further boosting domestic
liquidity. The lower
BI rate should pave the way for further cuts in the
deposit
rate, benefitting
banks with greater reliance on more interest-sensitive
time
deposits such as
Danamon, BTPN, and BJBR. On the other hand, banks with
low LDR and excess
liquidity such as BCA could face some short-term NIM
compression. Our top
picks in the banking sector are BRI and BJBR.
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 10 Februari 2012
BISI : Minat beli melonjak cukup
signifikan membentuk pola bullish parabolic sar, MACD yang golden cross dan
histogram positif membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan menembus resisten 990.
Support : S1 960
S2 930
Resisten : R1 990
R2 1.030
Langganan:
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