Semen Gresik, Limited upside this year, CLSA

With new capacity coming only in Apr and July, SMGR is likely to just be
able to maintain market share from last year. The company will also be
worst hit on margin given rising energy costs and depreciation despite
the 4% ASP growth assumption. SMGR also needs to gear up for
expansion and starts expensing higher interest in 2013 (previously
capitalized). Valuation is also more expensive vs peers. Maintain U-PF.

Semen Gresik, New plant nearly completed, Danareksa

Counting down
The new Tuban IV production facility is expected to commence trial operation in March 2012.
The project has been slightly delayed from December 2011, but with capex slightly below budget.
In the first two months, the new plant is expected to run at a 50-60% utilization rate and then
to gradually increase to 80-85% in May 2012 and the following months. This will increase Semen
Gresik’s production by 1.3-1.4 mn tonnes. In the first year, the new plant can be expected to run
at an average 70% utilization rate. The Tonasa plant, meanwhile, is being delayed to July 2012
with the power plant to be completed in October 2012. The capex for Tonasa will increase slightly
due to this delay from IDC, translating to Rp20-40bn. All in all, we expect additional capacity of
about 2.1mn tonnes in FY12 from these two new plants.