Inflation risks have heightened in Indonesia on the back of very
aggressive accommodative monetary policy, expectations of a hike in the
subsidized fuel price & firm core inflation. While these concerns have
drawn parallels to India (where inflation pressures have been persistent)
our case study shows structural differences supporting the view that
inflation pressures in Indonesia will be temporary versus chronic.
Kamis, 22 Maret 2012
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 22 Maret 2012
ASII : Terbentuk pola rebound setelah
kembali munculnya minat beli ditandai dengan kembali menghijaunya histogram dan
reboundnya stochastic membuka peluang kembali naiknya ASII.
Support : S1
69.850 S2 67.100
Resisten : R1 73.200 R2 74.650
Rabu, 21 Maret 2012
United Tractors, Feb Volume Wrap: A recovery, but tracking lower than guidance in 1Q, JP Morgan
UNTR's 14% outperformance versus the JCI over the last quarter has been
boosted, in our view, by its limited exposure to policy risk and inflation
pressures relative to other blue chips. While growth prospects and
favourable currency leverage still dispose us positively, tighter valuations
now mean that UNTR probably needs to deliver Komatsu sales matching
guidance (9,000-9,500 units) rather than our more conservative 8,000 unit
estimate to open up fresh absolute upside. Maintain OW, Rp 32,500 PT.
boosted, in our view, by its limited exposure to policy risk and inflation
pressures relative to other blue chips. While growth prospects and
favourable currency leverage still dispose us positively, tighter valuations
now mean that UNTR probably needs to deliver Komatsu sales matching
guidance (9,000-9,500 units) rather than our more conservative 8,000 unit
estimate to open up fresh absolute upside. Maintain OW, Rp 32,500 PT.
Selasa, 20 Maret 2012
Indonesian Property, Restraining growth, CLSA
Central Bank’s regulation of 30% min down payment for mortgage will
have more negative impact on demand for the lower income segment,
rather than the mid-up. Some listed developers have exposure to the
mid-low segment, but this is less than 15% of sales. Some developers
have already applied higher DP, hence will experience minimal impact.
To sustain demand, developers may extend payment period for DP or the
instalment period. Sector remains compelling; now at 36% disc to NAV.
have more negative impact on demand for the lower income segment,
rather than the mid-up. Some listed developers have exposure to the
mid-low segment, but this is less than 15% of sales. Some developers
have already applied higher DP, hence will experience minimal impact.
To sustain demand, developers may extend payment period for DP or the
instalment period. Sector remains compelling; now at 36% disc to NAV.
Market Strategy, Driving Conviction, CLSA
At the beginning of the year we based our Conviction List around 3 key
investment drivers for 2012: 1) The return of FDI and competition 2)
Progress on investment & infrastructure 3) The lower cost of capital.
While the JCI has been muted our Conviction List has performed very
strongly YTD. We are OW media, infra, property & cement as they are the
beneficiaries of these tailwinds which continue to play out.
investment drivers for 2012: 1) The return of FDI and competition 2)
Progress on investment & infrastructure 3) The lower cost of capital.
While the JCI has been muted our Conviction List has performed very
strongly YTD. We are OW media, infra, property & cement as they are the
beneficiaries of these tailwinds which continue to play out.
Bumi Resources, Alert: Non-Deal Roadshow Insights: Turning Shareholder Friendlier? - Citi
Generally positive response —The majority of 28 investors we met during the NDR in
UK and Europe last week appeared to be underweight or neutral at best on Bumi
Resources. However, most of the investors warmed up to the company’s main
messages of deleveraging and production ramp up. Hence, the share price is likely to
see a substantial rebound if the company delivers on these key issues.
UK and Europe last week appeared to be underweight or neutral at best on Bumi
Resources. However, most of the investors warmed up to the company’s main
messages of deleveraging and production ramp up. Hence, the share price is likely to
see a substantial rebound if the company delivers on these key issues.
Langganan:
Postingan (Atom)