Concerned with a potential real estate bubble, Bank of Indonesia has
restricted the maximum mortgage Loan to Total Value (LTV) from 80% to
70%. Banks would need to comply with the rule starting June 15th. We
believe the bulk of Indonesia real estate buyers (for our listed universe of
developers) are mainly affluent, with only a minority using mortgages,
hence the impact on marketing sales should be modest. The rule, in our
view, would only provide modest impact in the short term and hence we
see it as a buying opportunity. Long-term however, this introduces a risk
that rapid increases in ASPs may invite regulatory scrutiny. Our top pick
is SMRA.
Senin, 19 Maret 2012
Asean Forum 2012, Asean’s investment trinity, CLSA
You could argue that ASEAN growth and demographics have long been
overlooked in favour of China. Not this year though. CLSA’s Myanmar-Thai
nexus and Asean Arising reports paint the picture of a region buzzing
with young, cheap labour and increasing wealthy consumers. CLSA’s
Asean Forum showcased corporates from economies as divergent as
Singapore and Myanmar and industries as diverse as telecoms and
alcohol. Outlook is mixed for sure, but Asean’s long-term investment
trinity of global brands, fertile FDI and primed domestic consumption
were all well represented.
overlooked in favour of China. Not this year though. CLSA’s Myanmar-Thai
nexus and Asean Arising reports paint the picture of a region buzzing
with young, cheap labour and increasing wealthy consumers. CLSA’s
Asean Forum showcased corporates from economies as divergent as
Singapore and Myanmar and industries as diverse as telecoms and
alcohol. Outlook is mixed for sure, but Asean’s long-term investment
trinity of global brands, fertile FDI and primed domestic consumption
were all well represented.
Jumat, 16 Maret 2012
Indonesia Banks, Reserve Requirement Hike: Ample liquidity but Opportunity Cost, Citi
Bottom-line impact of 2-3% — Bank Indonesia’s (BI) intention to use higher Reserve
Requirment (RR) to combat inflation looks to reduce large banks’ profits by 2-3%
(annualized). Rate hikes on the other hand, favor large, liquid banks. The impact
assumes 300bps hike (same as in Nov 2010) with zero payment. This is the worst case
scenario as BI opted to pay 2.5% on the 300bps increase of Nov 10 (remaining 5% of
Primary Reserves @ 0%). January-end local currency deposits are Rp2319trn and, if
BI does opt for +3% @ 0%, will absorb liquidity of Rp70trn and save BI Rp2.1trn.
Requirment (RR) to combat inflation looks to reduce large banks’ profits by 2-3%
(annualized). Rate hikes on the other hand, favor large, liquid banks. The impact
assumes 300bps hike (same as in Nov 2010) with zero payment. This is the worst case
scenario as BI opted to pay 2.5% on the 300bps increase of Nov 10 (remaining 5% of
Primary Reserves @ 0%). January-end local currency deposits are Rp2319trn and, if
BI does opt for +3% @ 0%, will absorb liquidity of Rp70trn and save BI Rp2.1trn.
AsiaUSA Market strategy, Not just Chindia: Asean arising, CLSA
With 37% of its population under 20, Asean’s labor force is set to grow by
more than 56 million this decade as China’s labor force begins to fall,
setting up the region as the next low-cost manufacturing zone. Rising
disposable incomes will lift 50 million people into the middle class while
13% pa growth in discretionary spending power unleashes a wave of
consumerism. Our top ten Asean-USA picks are: Chevron, Coca-Cola,
Hess, Las Vegas Sands, Mead Johnson, National Oilwell Varco, Philip
Morris International, Starbucks, Western Digital and Yum! Brands.
more than 56 million this decade as China’s labor force begins to fall,
setting up the region as the next low-cost manufacturing zone. Rising
disposable incomes will lift 50 million people into the middle class while
13% pa growth in discretionary spending power unleashes a wave of
consumerism. Our top ten Asean-USA picks are: Chevron, Coca-Cola,
Hess, Las Vegas Sands, Mead Johnson, National Oilwell Varco, Philip
Morris International, Starbucks, Western Digital and Yum! Brands.
Saham Pilihan Jumat 16 Maret 2012
ASRI : MACD berpeluang golden cross
dan histogram mendekati area positif membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support :
S1 600
S2 580
Resisten : R1 620 R2 640
Kamis, 15 Maret 2012
BNI, Expanding capacity, CLSA
Thanks to an improvement in asset quality and strong recovery from its
written-off assets, BBNI managed to record strong net profit growth of
42% YoY in FY11. Coupled with the better asset quality trend, we expect
the bank to record higher pre-impairment profit (PPOP) this year on the
back of lower cost of funds and stronger fee based income. The bank
continues to expand aggressively in the consumer segment where it is
taking market share and building up capacity. Maintain outperform.
written-off assets, BBNI managed to record strong net profit growth of
42% YoY in FY11. Coupled with the better asset quality trend, we expect
the bank to record higher pre-impairment profit (PPOP) this year on the
back of lower cost of funds and stronger fee based income. The bank
continues to expand aggressively in the consumer segment where it is
taking market share and building up capacity. Maintain outperform.
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