Bottom-line impact of 2-3% — Bank Indonesia’s (BI) intention to use higher Reserve
Requirment (RR) to combat inflation looks to reduce large banks’ profits by 2-3%
(annualized). Rate hikes on the other hand, favor large, liquid banks. The impact
assumes 300bps hike (same as in Nov 2010) with zero payment. This is the worst case
scenario as BI opted to pay 2.5% on the 300bps increase of Nov 10 (remaining 5% of
Primary Reserves @ 0%). January-end local currency deposits are Rp2319trn and, if
BI does opt for +3% @ 0%, will absorb liquidity of Rp70trn and save BI Rp2.1trn.
Jumat, 16 Maret 2012
AsiaUSA Market strategy, Not just Chindia: Asean arising, CLSA
With 37% of its population under 20, Asean’s labor force is set to grow by
more than 56 million this decade as China’s labor force begins to fall,
setting up the region as the next low-cost manufacturing zone. Rising
disposable incomes will lift 50 million people into the middle class while
13% pa growth in discretionary spending power unleashes a wave of
consumerism. Our top ten Asean-USA picks are: Chevron, Coca-Cola,
Hess, Las Vegas Sands, Mead Johnson, National Oilwell Varco, Philip
Morris International, Starbucks, Western Digital and Yum! Brands.
more than 56 million this decade as China’s labor force begins to fall,
setting up the region as the next low-cost manufacturing zone. Rising
disposable incomes will lift 50 million people into the middle class while
13% pa growth in discretionary spending power unleashes a wave of
consumerism. Our top ten Asean-USA picks are: Chevron, Coca-Cola,
Hess, Las Vegas Sands, Mead Johnson, National Oilwell Varco, Philip
Morris International, Starbucks, Western Digital and Yum! Brands.
Saham Pilihan Jumat 16 Maret 2012
ASRI : MACD berpeluang golden cross
dan histogram mendekati area positif membuka peluang berlanjutnya penguatan.
Support :
S1 600
S2 580
Resisten : R1 620 R2 640
Kamis, 15 Maret 2012
BNI, Expanding capacity, CLSA
Thanks to an improvement in asset quality and strong recovery from its
written-off assets, BBNI managed to record strong net profit growth of
42% YoY in FY11. Coupled with the better asset quality trend, we expect
the bank to record higher pre-impairment profit (PPOP) this year on the
back of lower cost of funds and stronger fee based income. The bank
continues to expand aggressively in the consumer segment where it is
taking market share and building up capacity. Maintain outperform.
written-off assets, BBNI managed to record strong net profit growth of
42% YoY in FY11. Coupled with the better asset quality trend, we expect
the bank to record higher pre-impairment profit (PPOP) this year on the
back of lower cost of funds and stronger fee based income. The bank
continues to expand aggressively in the consumer segment where it is
taking market share and building up capacity. Maintain outperform.
Saham Pilihan Kamis, 15 Maret 2012
ANTM : Stochastic mulai rebound,
begitu juga dengan histogram dan MACD membuka peluang terjadinya penguatan.
Support : S1
1.850 S2 1.800
Resisten : R1 1.920 R2 1.940
Rabu, 14 Maret 2012
Indonesian Banks, Possible tightening, CLSA
Bank Indonesia is considering increasing the reserve requirement (RR)
for Indo banks in response to high inflationary pressure from the planned
fuel price hike. This is an Indonesian-specific issue as other countries in
the region are easing instead of tightening. We estimate minimal impact
from a 100 bps increase in RR for banks under CLSA coverage due to the
current excess liquidity and low yield from FASBI. Moreover, the system’s
liquidity is still abundant. We maintain our BUY call on BBRI and BBNI.
for Indo banks in response to high inflationary pressure from the planned
fuel price hike. This is an Indonesian-specific issue as other countries in
the region are easing instead of tightening. We estimate minimal impact
from a 100 bps increase in RR for banks under CLSA coverage due to the
current excess liquidity and low yield from FASBI. Moreover, the system’s
liquidity is still abundant. We maintain our BUY call on BBRI and BBNI.
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