• The economy
Our 2012 global growth forecast remains at an anaemic 2.2%, but PMIs
are suggesting mild upside risk.
• Asset Allocation
We remain long equities, EM and credit against safer assets. Of the six
drivers of the rally, two are now closer to neutral (positions and risk
perceptions), and one has gained (momentum). We analyse the impact of
high relative supply of safe assets, cash and gov’t debt, and conclude
equities and credit need to rally some 6% over the coming 12 months just
to keep pace with rising cash and gov’t debt outstanding. The portfolio
now includes hedges against oil and inflation.
Senin, 12 Maret 2012
Indonesia Hard Hat, Solid 2M12 numbers, JP Morgan
Indonesia cement sales volume in 2M12 grew by 19% y/y. Indonesia
cement sales volume in 2M12 grew by 19% y/y to 8.2mn MT. February
demand looks firm, with cement sales volume of 4.1mn MT, flat m/m
and up by 24% y/y. All regions posted strong growth. Kalimantan area
showed the strongest growth, as its cement sales volume grew by 36%
y/y. Assuming no fuel subsidy removal, we view that Indonesia cement
consumption growth for FY12 would likely to be inline with our
forecast of 10% y/y growth.
cement sales volume in 2M12 grew by 19% y/y to 8.2mn MT. February
demand looks firm, with cement sales volume of 4.1mn MT, flat m/m
and up by 24% y/y. All regions posted strong growth. Kalimantan area
showed the strongest growth, as its cement sales volume grew by 36%
y/y. Assuming no fuel subsidy removal, we view that Indonesia cement
consumption growth for FY12 would likely to be inline with our
forecast of 10% y/y growth.
Asean arising, CLSA
J-curves and franchises
With nearly 40% of its population under 20, the Asean labour pool is
surging while China is facing a labour crunch and regulatory risk has
risen in India. FDI flows to the region are already surging. Buying power
is rising with the middle class projected to rise 50% and the number of
wealthy to double over five years. We identify 13 companies building a
business franchise, generating an average annual EVA® spread of 8% and
estimated to provide 70% three-year total returns.
With nearly 40% of its population under 20, the Asean labour pool is
surging while China is facing a labour crunch and regulatory risk has
risen in India. FDI flows to the region are already surging. Buying power
is rising with the middle class projected to rise 50% and the number of
wealthy to double over five years. We identify 13 companies building a
business franchise, generating an average annual EVA® spread of 8% and
estimated to provide 70% three-year total returns.
Saham Pilihan Senin, 12 Maret 2012
ASII : Melanjutkan rekomendasi kami
kemarin, MACD tepat golden cross dan histogram hijau kini berada pada area
positif mengindikasikan masih ada peluang untuk menguat.
Support : S1
69.950 S2 68.850
Resisten : R1 70.850 R2 71.750
Jumat, 09 Maret 2012
Tower Bersama, Towering Along, CLSA
TBIG’s 2011 results were solid with Core NPAT 13% better than our
expectations. While TBIG’s inorganic deal-making grabs the headlines –
the organic operational momentum should not be underestimated. TBIG
added 2,300 new tenancies in 2011 providing a strong platform for 2012
in addition to a strong pipeline of new builds. Finalisation of the ISAT
transaction is the game-changing growth driver. Factoring the deal into
our model we upgrade our target price to 3,850 implying 40% upside.
expectations. While TBIG’s inorganic deal-making grabs the headlines –
the organic operational momentum should not be underestimated. TBIG
added 2,300 new tenancies in 2011 providing a strong platform for 2012
in addition to a strong pipeline of new builds. Finalisation of the ISAT
transaction is the game-changing growth driver. Factoring the deal into
our model we upgrade our target price to 3,850 implying 40% upside.
Saham Pilihan Jumat, 9 Maret 2012
CPIN : Melanjutkan rekomendasi kami
kemarin, CPIN berpeluang melanjutkan penguatan dimana stochastic golden cross
dan MACD juga mulai rebound.
Support : S1 2.650
S2 2.575
Resisten : R1 2.750 R2 2.875
Langganan:
Postingan (Atom)